Member Info for damofarl

Blackfriars1; agree. I give it 6 months max, as it's already a done deal, the only delay, is in working out how to dress it up for current investors; how to make the shafting more palatable.

Sparhawk; yes, albeit the income will constantly reduce to a drought, as they sell assets to proffer dividend income, meaning a slow extinction. Question is, would that process return for shareholders. At this price, yes, .uch higher no.

The reality here is, they are going to sell themselves to their manager, at zero premium. So no income trail to compensate investors.....

Sturm; agree your last sentiment.

Scaremongers/frustrated holders are such because they aren't as pragmatic in managing their holdings/expectations as PTAL are in managing the business.

Yes, we'd all prefer the SP to drift upwards not downwards but considering the immense long term value here, getting paid 10% a year for such to crystallise is hardly shabby.

I think the lack of river level issues so far bodes well for meeting guidance (as usual), and maintenance of the dividend, not least the considerable cash at hand buffer. I am however increasingly leaning towards your advocacy of increased buybacks, rather than any dividend rise/'special' going forward. Maybe even review the level of cash buffer downwards to facilitate such.

Peller; it may be 40 people with your broker, but it is considerably more people than that affected. I'm with AJBELL who allocated me the Canadian stock immediately, however I've been unable to trade.

I have had considerable communication with them on the matter, and interestingly they never mentioned errors in registration, just that they were unable to trade DRS form holdings. It seems only interactive investor have been able to allow transacting correctly, judging by the comments on here/old BSE board

Jatw; yes that's some 2nd buyback.

To have a $7 billion market cap company, well in excess of capitalisation requirements, have a $billion in spare cash sloshing about is well impressive.

And that share count reduction can only help maintain their incremental increase(s) in dividend, at little greater cost.

And there has got to come a point at which a decision is made on that excess capital (if maintained as has been). Frankly, wild market shocks aside, I think there are more $billions of spare cash coming down the line.....

Roxi; not sure whether you and Charlie are acquainted, have a lovely/hate relationship, but this board is about PTAL not you.

On your comments on PTAL..... "It's costs for repairs to the waterways are soaring...."

What do you base this assertion on? The costs seem well managed, and on budget. What is your source for this?

Some would argue this isn't a cost but an investment (in improving route to market).

You quote something from 2020 - do you not have anything more recent to support your assertions? It's currently 2025.

What ongoing conflict and social unrest in 2025 do you refer to?

"....there are many more investments out there that offer safer returns, imo...."

Well what are you doing here then, mithering this board with your drivel? Why aren't you out there spending your time on those boards?

Is it because they don't want your airy fairy wishy washy emotive full, and rationale empty assertions either?

This board has differing views, well considered and highlighting considerations. I and Sturm, for instance disagree, but we focus on the fundamentals, not individuals.

If you can't contribute positively please don't contribute at all. Just PTAL off.

Neversellshell;

They own 30% of ITH BECAUSE they sold their NS assets to them

Lovely to see JXN retesting the $100 level; still think there is more to come, and those buybacks are definitely helping.

Nozzle last;

"....Thank you for the explanation..." - and it was just an explanation of why your post not of been as warmly received as you might of hoped.

".....However, this board frequently discusses alternatives such as EnQuest, Harbour, etc. Comparing Serica to others is useful and informative, and I believe it does add value to the discussion. I know I like to see others mentioning competition, as it points my research."

I couldn't agree more, just as I totally agree with Sekforde's comment that it is fine/helpful to "...refer to other similar companies especially for comparative valuation purposes", however your initial post made no comparison, no discussion (such as your subsequent contribution that you are "sure Serica is a great asset to hold long term...") for comparison. The lack of mention of Serica, was likely perceived, and certainly to my eyes, as less improving awareness, and more self interest promotion. Personally I'm happy to apologise if I've misread such. As for posting, this is a generous welcoming board, and your opinion is as welcome as anyone's - I particularly note the singular lack of rudeness/dismissiveness/ranting in your posts, and I for one am a big fan of such, so please don't be deterred, albeit frankly if I was identiying stocks acheiving"..several hundred percent gains", I wouldn't give a hoot what anyone says/thinks/posts.

Tyma; I veteod nobody and nothing, and that is your perception not the reality. I do recommend that you research PTAL - nozzlefest is on the money about this (I have a larger holding there than I do here, and I think this is undervalued). I won't be offended if you veto my encouragement to research PTAL.

If I were to mention a company in an unrelated field, it would not add value to the discussion here.

Regarding my analysis of PTAL, I do not claim it to be perfect; I am sure contributors here can do their own research.

Overall, given the reception here, I will refrain from sharing my ideas in the future.

Yes great results.

I think long term it will go to quarterly dividends, but the stated annual payout of £500m suggests 2 and a 'special' this year - I don't think this announced dividend of £167m is coincidental, being near as dam it, a third of that guidance.

Nozzle last; your contribution is dismissed because:

1) this is the board for SQZ

2) you haven't posted such on PTAL

3) Selectiveness - whilst I agree the generality of your positivity, it omits to mention jurisdictional risk, and the notable dividend withholding rate amongst other considerations.

As a SQZ holder, always happy to hear your views on SQZ here, and as a PTAL holder, I look forward to seeing your first post on their board.

I took found the RNS intriguing. If it was a movement from existing fund holdings, to consolidate into one, I would have expected the RNs to state the proceeding holding. As such, to me it looks like a new (additional) holding.

They are buy and hold, Africa resource, value focused, with a deep focus on value, so if it is additional, a great vote of confidence, if really needed here.

Nav mike;

From the RNS......

'.....We have pre-funded our near-term debt maturities out to 2028.'

I never getting frustrated waiting for a stock to be fully appreciated whilst receiving a consistent, profit backed healthy dividends.......

Three months ago a stock I've held for 10 years went purchase price positive for me, for the first time. Every year, for 10 years it's paid me a dividend of 12%+

Enjoy the long buck, follow the long term fundamentals, ignore the quick buck, and today's SP range/dislocation/undervaluation is irrelevant.

Herminator; one last last. The major shareholders are here for the long term realisation.

The recent slow but steady uptick is driven by private investors. The long term institutional investors, whose holdings have barely changed in 10, years, didn't sell when the SP was half what it is now. And they aren't going to sell on a 5% S P move tommorow. They have always appreciated the value inherent - but accumulatively their holdings mean the free float is small (hence problems in getting FTSE index inclusion), and that 'sudden' appreciation of small investors, is driving the increase. The select small investors on this board, aren't selling, because they know it is so undervalued. I'm fortuitous to be sitting on a large gain, but frankly, if I learnt of this stock today, I would buy it. In that it causes me difficulties, in that I should really bank my gain, and reduce my high concentration here (total portfolio wise), but actually want to buy more. As people wake up to SEPL, that buying desire, of a small free float, will disproportionately increment the SP.

As I said before, I've been here 10 years. I bought, as a long term value investor. I bought on what I thought they could achieve organically. What they have morphed to be (with MPNU acquisition), means I think they are better value today, than they were 10 years ago. And yes that's quite a statement, having ready been well enriched on my original judgement. SEPL is just getting going.....

Dixie33; firstly, no I'm no longer concerned, as I sold out totally, having held for many years.

To answer your recent question, in my experience, playing the SP rise/drop around dividend doesn't really work here, as the SP doesn't really move on ex dividend, and timing against the spread can negate any such 'opportunity' - hope that helps.

herminator; i don't want to crowd or bore others on here , so i'll make these last few observations.

i feel, awareness of sepl has been perpetually 18 months behind the curve of what it is actually doing/achieving, but i think that is about to change;, feel people are waking up to it's success, and as such, if it gets to 18 months from now independently, it will remain an independent. without a knock out blow from left side, i think mau have got a 6 month window to take sepl out, at a premium to sp -but considerable discount to value, and realistically feel they are they only one that could do. their govt backed owner could give the nigerian govt 'unwritten' assurances over continuance. i really wouldn't want perenco/vitol/trafigura to take them out, because i consider them odious outfits.

i first bought into sepl, having never owned shell because i thought/feel their wanton extraction of wealth from, and disregard to their impact on , nigeria was disgraceful, and sepl showed that it was good business, to respect the environment in which you worked, and share the wealth from whence it was generated, and sepl's stats on percentage of local employees/women in high roles/unwillingness to give bribes is outstanding, both in itself, and in it's rareness. yes, i want to make a profit, but i'd rather make a profit where i know , those that have created that profit have shared in it too. (i hold ptal for similar reasons).

you say, ..."look at opportunities as majors fled, keep nigerian officials onside show what potential there is with infrastructure, become a pivatol electric supplier, invest in local community projects, in essence to me bring back the wealth...."

totally agree with this, and one of the reasons i mentioned petrolin, is, it's founder has long envisaged and championed, such. has govt connections, is personally on a mission to build infrastructure and bring home wealth. but i mainly mentioned petrolin, precisely because of it's method of doing business, which is to take stakes in indigenous nigerian production, be it through their holding in us, renaissance energy (shell off casts), or nd western, and with petrolin's founder's desire ****geneous to sepl's, a takeover of those companies, would be a win win for sepl/petrolin/nigerian govt, making sepl into a nigerian major, that would deliver for all, whilst protecting it from takeover.

that aside, i think the results are going to be stonking, not so much because of production/cashflow increases, but for news on how economies of scale, well utilisation/resurrection are being implemented.

exciting times, and i do think the results will cause an unwinding of that 18 month delay in understanding of sepl, and an unwinding of the sps disconnect to the value and fundamentals of sepl as it is today.

Herminator; everyone has their view, and in this board, we are blessed to have a number of informative thought provoking, understanding enhancing contributions.

'I hope this share isn’t taken out......'.....'fi this does happen surely they would have to pay a healthy premium to acquire this company. If that was to happen £4 to me would be an absolute minimun......'

Well I may shake my head at SP being £5 in two years, but that doesn't mean I don't think it's already worth £5 a share. I do. But I'm a pragmatist.

If you look at the major shareholders, none are short termist. MAU, Petrol in, Allan Gray are all hold and hold shareholders, so to convince all of them, to forsake that long termishness would require a knockout blow, and nearer to £5 than £4 - and a prospective bidder would need to win ALL of those shareholders over to have a chance of a majority vote.

In the absence of such a knockout offer, The reality is, because of the size of it's holding, only MAU could make a successful bid, done in such a way, say a merger share issue, that would allow pre-existing shareholders, like you and me, but more importantly the Africa focused long term investors such as Petrolin, Sustainable capital, Allan Gray to maintain such focus, and exposure to such. Accordingly, I see a take out price by MAU, or £3.50.

Not what I would want, but one has to be pragmatic - to buy today, and sell in 18 months for a 50% takeover premium, individual holders would be selling rapidly, give any 'understanding' of those major investors, the tip to get the majority needed over the line.

SEPL would be a useful asset to the likes of Trafigura/Vitol, ye for the cashflow, but more importantly, to support/leverage their trading activities.

I don't advocate a takeover, I want SEPL to remain independent, but I do think the cash flows will catch speculative interest, and as such, for SEPL, the best form of defense may be attack, and, if one discards their media interests, acquiring/merging Petrolin, who have been a shareholder constantly since IPO may be the way, not least because their founder is extremely professional Nigerian prosperity, with a vision akin to SEPL's.

Dohers316,;

......'the only firm I think would take a swing at it is Perenco as they have a lot of experience in africa and deep pockets'.....

I sincerely hope not, as their probity is highly questionable and a country mile from SEPL's.

Xxnjr; is it an oak tree you are having a break under?!

Totally agree SEPL is more undervalued than MAU. I do think MAU could be attractive, yes in cost of capital (aiding further merger)acquisitions), but also in that they do tend to buy and hold, which would be attractive to major investors such as Allan Gray and Sustainable capital, who are very Africa, minerals and value orientated, in facilitating continued long term exposure. Possibly structured as a merger with the SEPL name on the door, to maintain, the excellent govt 'relationship.

Alas, SEPL could become a victim of its own success, as combined/increased production and cash flows flow through - I don't see them lasting 2 years. I hope I'm wrong, but frankly strong and rising cash flows, within an increasingly strong governance environment, with a growing population (demand) shouts the sort of traits that non ESG encumbered private equity would take out and churn.