RE: help2 Dec 2020 20:14
I think there are a number of things to consider here that we can pose as questions:
1) Is there a real-world need or problem that this project would address? The answer to that is yes. Affordable, local power at volume. That doesn't mean this will be the project chosen to deliver it, but nor will the need disappear and so some entity will get a big opportunity. It's not a non-opportunity, if you like.
2) Is this project being considered as part of a larger programme of infrastructural development. Again, we know that to be the case via the whole raft of projects under the auspices of CPEC, with priorities identified and, until the disruption, progress apparently made on numerous of them. In other words, this is not a project floating loose in space - it's part (or certainly has been) of a bigger plan in which Oracle Power is dwarfed.
3) Is Oracle Power a big player in this? No. It's a minority, though important, interest. I would suggest that the company therefore has a limited amount of influence in terms of pace and progress of approval. This might be of some importance to us on this BB, but the PIs of Oracle Power getting an answer to a question they feel ought by now to have been answered is not going to be a priority for many other people, especially those with political self-interest. Therefore blaming the leadership of Oracle Power is probably not particularly rational - at least not for the delay!
4) Is Oracle Power partnering in this with serious players? Yes and that's a real positive for me. The Chinese and HRH's office are used to getting things their way and don't generally associate themselves with failure. If they're in, I'd take that as an ongoing sign that they believe in the potential here.
Somebody on here the other day used the word 'binary' and I think it's a good one. This either will or won't happen. If it does happen, then Oracle Power and its shareholders will hold an interest in a very valuable resource. If it doesn't happen, the company is essentially worthless but, let's be clear, at a market cap of £12m, it couldn't be worth much less right now. Let's also be clear that the LOI would signal the start of a lot of hard work and investment. It's a very beginning - the chance to even begin - not an end.
Put simplistically, it's worth nothing now but there's a very viable chance that it could be worth quite a lot. It comes down to risk appetite. It's a play, a gamble. Less so, in my opinion than some 'house of cards' investment opportunities that are never even based in real world need, but a gamble nonetheless.
And whilst we can all wind one another up with unfounded Delboy-style optimism or equally unfounded The -End-Of-The-World-Is-Nigh pessimism, the truth is that none of knows any more than the other whether there's an email currently winging its way from Lahore to London.
Good luck either way!
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