Member Info for dallo

Cauldstream

When I said Immupharma should have at least a £50m market cap, I meant after a commercial deal is done in the near term but the valuation should move much higher as the trials progress.

The World Bio Technology markets are coming back to life and the acquisition of Karuna Therapeutics by Bristol Myers for $14b for its Schizophrenia drug KarXT drug awaiting FDA approval in September this year is an example of the prices being paid by the majors as their existing drugs programmes go generic.

By the way KarXT was developed by Puretech, where I have a big investment, and from Puretech is is set to make hundreds of millions of $ even though it offloaded the development risks years by setting up Karuna as a separate entity funded by outside funding and investors.

Sound familiar?

Cauldstream

My wife has a thyroid condition and she takes calcium tablets.

Hence I cannot see the logic in the Amolyt valuation but there you go.

So much I don't understand in this crazy world.

ATB

Hyperparatyroidism treatment, I should say

Cauldstream

Amolyt's endocrine parathyroid drug entered Phase 3 trials in 2023 with top line results expected in 1st Half 2025...2 /3 years after trial initiation.

The world market for hyperthyroidism treatments is c $1.5b.

The market for Lupus is c4 b and CIDP is c $1/2 b

Amolyt Pharma raised over €250m in funding over the past 5 years..the French are different!!!.

So the takeover valued at $1b is based on the belief that the Phase 3 will be successful...some punt by AstraZ.

So why Immupharma is valued at £8m is beyond comprehension imho.

At my advanced age and experience in the Stock Markets ( including some right disastrous investments offset by some good ones) I am confident of one matter in relation to Immupharma in that if a commercial deal(s)) on Lupuzor and CIDP plus the anti infective drugs plus the Incanthera revenues soar for it anti cancer suncream , Sol , Immupharma will have a market cap of minimum £50m plus before trial results are announced in 2 years or so.

Assuming the company is not bought out before that.

Remember the £50m tax losses are another tempting attraction as McCarthy alluded to at the AGM.

And all for a market cap of c£8m

I hope I have got it right and hate rampers but if anyone wishes to have a counter argument I would welcome it.

DYOR

ATB to the long termers ...8 years for me .. Doh!

D

Pokerchips

You are indeed correct

After exhaustive analysis on dosage , trial protocols patients selection and costings et al, Simbec-Orion were finally appointed on the 19th December 2023.

That to me was a major milestone and then allowed Immupharma management to have bullets in the gun in terms of negotiating with interest parties on RoW Lupuzor rights plus CIDP where Simbec-Orion will be conducting trials in parallel with Lupuzor.

With actual trials commencing the game is totally different from an negotiating standpoint.

Immupharma now has a strong hand to play with rather than we hope to start trials with Alora/Avion in the undefined future.

That's why now Immupharma is in a much stronger position imho.

Flash

If McCarthy and the Board of Immupharma have lied and a placing at the levels you are talking about is done I would no longer be a supporter of the company and its management.

I hope that clarifies my position

Finally you must remember that the Alora group has expended enormous amount of management time and expense in dealing with the US FDA on trial protocols and procedures over the past 2 years to get us to this stage as well as investing c£1m in a 80% premium placing at 11p over 2 years ago.

What investors should into account in relation to any commercial deals on the RoW rights to Lupuzor, Global rights to CIDP and the anti infective programme is that the Alora Pharma Group has , in effect , made a staggering $25 m "upfront payment" to Immupharma in funding the Phase 3 Lupuzor trial in return for the US rights to Lupuzor and thereby obviating the need for Immupharma to raise this amount in the markets which dare I say would be extremely difficult if not impossible.

So Immupharma's shareholders get a risk free bet on a potential blockbuster drug in return for ceding the US rights to Lupuzor but still retain the royalties, milestone payments and sub licensing fees on the US Lupuzor revenues

How if anyone thinks that in agreeing a Rest of World deal on Lupuzor will not entail substantial upfront payment on a fully funded trial , they are not in the real world.

Also given the Alora Pharma commitment the negotiations on the CIDP commercial deal , where the Phase 2/3 trial on the drug is being conducted in parallel with Lupuzor by Simbec-Orion , the benchmark has been set by Aloras $25m funding.

So there is plenty of scope for successful commercial transactions on all Immupharma's drug products and in relation to the going concern issue for the Auditors the 3 funding options of warrants, commercial deals and the use of the Incanthera financial asset ( as security for a Convertible Loan for example) will be more than reassuring in this regard imo.

Accordingly as a Director and Chartered Accountant myself ,I would be more that happy to sign off on the 12 months going concern statement in respect of Immupharma.

For its worth and given Alora/Avion is funding the trial I would be disappointed if Immupharma didn't secure a minimum of $10m on the RoW Lupuzor rights plus royalties, milestone payments etc.

Imho

DYOR

Flash

So a Chairman and CEO of a listed public company issued a declaration via a RNS supported by the Board of Directors and sanctioned by the Nomad that no funds are required and there are other routes to non dilution funding should Immupharma require such funds in the future.

Either Mc Carthy is an absolute charlatan who has acted in a cynical and criminal fashion to deliberately deceive investors or he has acted in accordance with fiduciary responsibilities.

If a placing was announced at 1p in a couple of weeks he would be ruined as would the rest of the Board.

By the way the 2p warrants of £2m are on the threshold of being exercised.

Flash says sell as the rise is capped at 2p.

Is that a 2.2p trade I have just seen going through.

At least Lambo had the decency to move on.

Bought again today

Now about to go through 2p and £2m warrants exercise price.

A long way from liquidation and a further death spiral funding from Lanstead.

I wonder is there anything substantive driving this rally.

A lot of buying going on.

Cauldstream

I think the risk reward ratio is very good at sub 2p for the many reasons already discussed and these factors plus losses forward for tax purposes of c £50m after allowing for R&D credits makes Immupharma an interesting proposition as M&A activity is finally hotting up in the International Pharma sector.

Picked up another 300k at 1.75p

Trying to get my average breakeven price down or go bust trying!!!

Good to see some buying interest creeping in over the past 45 mins.

I will get excited if it pushes on through 2p and the warrants exercise price.

ATB

Doff

I have been investing in the Stock Markets for nearly 50 years and nothing surprises me anymore.

However Puretech come close as , despite excellent news, the share price never reacts the way you think

It should .

The share price is not much higher than it was in 2015 despite the major progress made in a number of its wholly-owned drug portfolio, the enormous amount

of cash generated from its founded entity ,Karuna including a further cash bonanza of $325m on completion of the BMS takeover plus $400m due from Royalty Pharma plus further royalties , milestone payments and sub Licensing fees.

Add in its own cash of c$300m, Vedanta, Seaport , Gallop etc etc and no wonder investors are mystified by the SP.

None of the major shareholders are selling otherwise we would get a TR-1 Form and the free float is miniscule after the recent $50m buyback.

No wonder I am befuddled and confused.

Oscar

Thanks

For clarification the 1% changes relate to threshold levels ie for Lanstead that means below 15% or above 16% for example and not absolute 1% movements from existing disclosed holding...in other words a disposal of .9% by Lanstead would reduce its holding below the declarable 15% or a purchase of .12% would bring it over a declarable level of 16% .

Cheers

Accordingly Lanstead must report any 1% or higher movements in its last notified shareholding ( c15.8%) disclosed in December 2023 in a timely manner ie 5 days or less from change or it is in breach of FCA and LSE Rules on Disclosure .

I trust this clears up the Lanstead issue.

Pokerchips

The 3% shareholding disclosure limit and subsequent 1% amounts above 3% apply to UK Issuers ie UK Incorporated listed companies and NOT foreign shareholders.

The 5% disclosure levels apply to shareholdings in Non-UK Issuers ie foreign Incorporated companies listed on the LSE.

The requirements to adhere to these regulations apply to all shareholders regardless of their residency status.

Pokerchips

Lanstead is not "a Non-UK Issuer" for UK reporting purposes but a foreign shareholder like me and millions of others in a UK company listed on the London Stock Exchange.

Immupharma is a UK Issuer for TR-1 Forms reporting changes in notifiable holdings by shareholders whether UK or foreign and notified both to the Issuer ( Immupharma) and the FCA.

Lanstead made an error in its TR-1 Form last December by stating Immupharma was a "Non-UK Issuer " which may be where you got confused.

I have submitted a number of TR-1 Forms in respect of a shareholding in a Non-UK Issuer in the past 4 years and , as a Non UK national, I have the exact same reporting requirements as a UK investor.

Otherwise with millions of Non UK Investors in the LSE, it would be outrageous to allow relaxed rules for foreign investors as this would be against International regulatory, money laundering ,US FATCA Act et al.