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Wildbunch

Please read Business Update RNS of the 6th March 2024 where the company clearly states that the c7.3m warrants held by Immupharma in Incanthera are exercisable AT ANYTIME.

I trust this clarifies matters.

ATB

So if we are being optimistic then Immupharma is just valued at its investment in Incanthera and all the rest is valued at zero.

Interesting.

Major research note from Stanford Partners plus Interview with McCarthy on Incanthera just out.

Stanford postulates 2 scenarios ..one with just the European market for Sol with revenues of $35m and then secondly, expansion into Asia with revenues of c$100m by 2026/7.

It is on the Incanthera website.

If Stanford is right Incanthera could be worth north of $100m.

DYOR

Wildbunch

Sadly old Nolupus doesn't seem himself recently with garbled posts full of spelling errors , capital letters and

fuzzy thinking..

I sincerely hope he is okay as we have had some interesting debates over the past 8 years.

As for Immupharma having to come up with the cash to exercise the warrants it can simply sell some of its 9.9 m shares in Incanthera to pay for them particularly should Incanthera's SP soar to say 50p or higher.

As for his contention regarding the " book value": of Immupharma's investment in Incanthera it only has to do a mark to market valuation at the Interims and Final Accounts stages and show the realised/ unrealised gains or losses then.

Anyway I wish Nolupus the best as it is only a share board after all.

Nolupus

Have you not read the Incanthera RNS.

The warrants held by Immupharma represent an unrealised gain based on Incanthera's current SP.

The 9.9m direct holding is an unrealised loss.

The two Immupharma holdings, shares and warrants in Incanthera combined have a net unrealised gain.

This could change depending on Incanthera's SP.

The outlook for the Incanthera share price based on the revenue forecasts is extraordinarily bullish.

Even you must admit that the prospects for our investment in Incanthera looks excellent after today's update.

Nolupus

Your statement ignores the value of Immupharma's 7.3 m warrants at 9.5p exercisable at any time in Incanthera.

Nolupus at it again with wrong information that Immupharma's investment in Incanthera of £2.25m is still under water.

Not at todays Incanthera SP of 18p giving a value of Immupharma's 9.9 m shares in Incanthera at £1.8m plus current unrealised gain on the 7.3m warrants of c £700,000.

Incanthera looks like it will taken out soon by one of the big players given its forecast revenues for the next 2 years.

Now if only Tim could give us another juicy RNS on the commercial deals and Lupuzor trial data , we would be flying.

Alwaysone

My theory is that if private investors like us tender at £2.50 we will get 100% filled.

This is on the basis that none ( or very few) of the Institutional investors ( 70% ) or management and connected (10%) will sell at the tender offer leaving just c20% of shares available for tender .

So if 70% apply of this cohort, then they will be filled 100%.

70% is a big ask imho given the sum of the parts valuation of Puretech is conservatively over £4/5.

That is why I feel management got greedy and tried to strip out weak holders on the cheap thereby increasing the % holding of those who shareholders who refuse the offer.

Yorkshire

You have now encouraged Nolupus to start up the same drivel he has been spouting for 8 years..passive aggressive so called pearls of wisdom except now he even seems bored with his own never-ending" same old same old" with Capital letters everywhere and for someone who has never bought a share in Immupharma , Nolupus is one strange poster with a fetish about the regurgitation of his only opinion on Immupharma.

Look to the stars but keep your feet on the ground..dozens more such" wise sayings "at the end of each of his posts... yawn!

Lesley

I have been having good conversations with Kana in Puretech Investor Relations until I vehemently criticised the Tender at £2.50.

I have received no response and appear to be on the naughty boys list.

Childish.

I now , humbly, confess that I know diddly squat about the Stock Markets after 50 years as Puretech's share price drops to 212 p today...38p below Tender price

Bizarre.

Malt

Great Post

My views entirely as Puretech as a developer of drug programs farms out the risk through the hub and spoke model and its track record is one mega success ,Karuna and loads of duds with Vedanta possibly going to be a winner .

So Karuna has garnered $1 billion from Karuna including the upcoming c$300m from the BMS takeover and Puretech and royalties of $400m from

Royalty Pharma plus future additional Royalties milestone payments and sub licensing income.

The rest of its founded entities are utter failures apart from perhaps Vedanta who may come good.

It's own drug therapies are interesting but still at a relatively early stage .

The market in the US and the UK hate companies that act like fund managers and that is why they assign a risk premium to these unusual entities

There is no guarantee that Zohar will not exhaust cash resources over the coming years on the in house drugs so that is why the strategy needs to change and only a takeover will clear out the spoke entities and concentrate on the primary business and stop Zohar from acting like a Pharma fund manager in high risk drug development companies.

I keep thinking of the $13 billion she left on the table in Karuna.

The perils of appointing a child of the founder of a company to run the business.

Anyone see Succession the great TV series.

Anyway Puretech still is totally undervalued but needs new management and a focused strategy.

This will happen soon imho

Soundman

Mystifying drop today as there is a clear arbitrage opportunity to buy at £2.20 and tender the same amount for a 30p gain.

However it is never that simple in the markets so what's the story .Is the SP being manipulated downwards to bolster the take-up in the Tender or is the market not impressed by the management's lack of daring and ambition.

A more aggressive management would back itself to use surplus funds to drive growth through a large acquisition for instance rather than buy back its own shares which have underperformed for 10 years.

Zohar boasts of taking $1 billion out of its small investment in Karuna having developed KarXT the schizophrenia drug but forgets to mention it had left $13 billion on the table.

I think the market is not convinced of Zohar's strategy and skills and I think the 70% Institutional investors particularly Invesco with 24% of the shares will exert pressure after the Tender is completed.

Just returning cash to shareholders at a low SP is an admission by management that it hasn't any ideas to drive growth using the large surplus funds and is content to plod along hoping Vedanta and its own drug therapies come good in a few years

Hence I feel a takeover is the logical conclusion and maybe we may see this sooner rather than later.

I still feel the cash , royalties and other significant assets are worth north of £1.5billion.

The Tender Offer is a clever ploy by Zohar ...but too clever by half .

With just a free float of c20% ( Institutional investors own 70% and management/ Directors/ connected parties own c10%), this Tender is aimed at the free floaters who , in the unlikely event of them all tendering and with no Institutional or investors likely to tender any shares , this would reduce the free float to c6% and increase the % holding of the remaining investors ( mainly Institutional and management) by 11.6% .

While I hope the free floaters are not that stupid it is obviously what the company is targeting at a low ball price.

I told the company that a Tender Offer of £3 may dislodge the wavering shareholders but at £2.50 there is little chance of that happening.

Too smart indeed but not fooling everyone , I hope.

With more big payouts to come and even a possible takeover, management just got too greedy.

I am not tendering my shares for what it is worth.

As an uber bull on Puretech for many years I am very disappointed with today's crumbs from the table capital return strategy and have made my view known to the management.

The Karuna bonanza was a great opportunity to reward shareholders for years of patience and in my view , Zohar has blown it.

Not a happy camper.

For what it is worth the company are hoping for significantly larger deals than I have suggested but having been bruised and battered over 8 years I prefer to quote much more conservative numbers

Nolupus

I think a deal on the Rest of World rights on Lupuzor of possibly £10m upfront plus and royalties etc given that Alora has invested $25m to fund the Phase 3 plus chucked in c£1m at 11p for the US Lupus rights representing 60% of the world wide Lupus market.

I think a deal on CIDP for global rights could be done at c£10m /15 m plus royalties.

Immupharma is trying to become a royalties income company with a R&D operation in France.

So two upfront payment deals on the late stage drugs could yield c£20/25m in commercial deals which is peanuts in the Global pharma industry imho.

Nolupus you that many a slip between cup and lip.

H2Nick

I expect the arbitrage opportunity to narrow tomorrow and we will probably see the SP move to c £2.40 ish tomorrow to deter punters.

The main reason for the structure of the options is to give the holders TIME ie 3 years to get the share price up to a level where they could finance the exercise of the 25m costing £500,000 which I don't think they would have the resources to do if say the SP just moved to even 10p in an AIM share.

However if the SP is 20/25p or even higher in 3 years time then no problem in financing as they would sell enough shares on exercise to repay any lender.

I don't begrudge the options to management as the stakes are so high and the salaries alone are not a sufficient incentive for them to work their butts off to make a success of Immupharma.

This is McCarthy's last rodeo and if Immupharma and Incanthera are a success he is set for a nice retirement

I wish him and the team well as we all benefit from a successful Immupharma.

Wonderful debate today on the options clauses which in a headmaster way , I will try to clarify.

The LATTER in used in the context of the mention of things, people, situations, options ,choices et al as the 2nd of the TWO mentioned with the FORMER the 1st

Accordingly if a commercial deal is done before the 3 years , the 3 years time frame becomes the LATTER and the commercial deal becomes the FORMER.

Conversely if the 3 years passes by and a commercial deal is done afterwards then the commercial deal becomes the LATTER and the 3 years is the FORMER.

God forbid there was a typo and the LATTER should have read "LATER".

I need a drink