Member Info for dallo

H2Nick

Given that the Tender documents are not approved and filed as yet it is almost certain that qualifying shareholders will be those that are on the Share Register on the date the Tender Offer becomes final so there is an arbitrage opportunity here at £2.20 for a 10% twist assuming all goes to plan.

H2Nick

Be careful on that strategy as the Tender Offer may only apply to holders who were on the share register prior to todays announcement .

Dyphne Zohars's response to Lesley that the offer may clear out some sellers from the 20% free float mainly is risible at I cannot see the Institutional investors with 70% and management with 10% selling very much.

At £3 a share and at extra $20m cost, loose holders may have been tempted.

Puretech have got the Tender price all wrong by suggesting the Board feel that the value of the company's shares is just £2.50 so why should investors pay more.

Big misstep imho but can be rectified by increasing the offer to £3.

I have said this to Kana for what it is worth.

Cheers

SoundMan

I have emailed my views on this derisory offer which I suggested will fail miserably and leave us with a near $80/90m special dividend of 10% plus and we hold on on our shares for future shareholder returns to made by the company as per RNS.

I said to Kana that I bet none of the management shareholders will sell a single share at £2.50.

I await her response

ATB

The Pecker

CGT not a major factor as 70% of shares in Puretech are held by Funds with another c10% held by management who will not be selling one share.

As I have said Puretech's Board and shareholders would crack up with derision and laughter if a full bid for the company was made at £2.50 .

If the tender price was at £3 it may tempt a few and only cost the company an extra 20% or $20m which is nothing.

In my view there will be few takers at £2.50 in the tender as most investors are under water here at £2.5

leaving the prospect of a large special dividend of maybe 8% plus and we can still keep our shares.

Best option unless tender offer price is raised to £2.75/£3

I will be emailing the company with my views.

ATB

Lesley

You can keep your shares which I intend to do as the £2.50 , is on mature reflection on my part , derisory in a company with potentially c$1 billion in cash by the end of the year ( before today's Tender Offer).

On all valuation models the company is worth £4 a share minimum and clearly market reaction is decidedly muted today at this low ball offer.

Ask yourself the key question "If a formal bid for Puretech was made by a large Pharma today for £2.50 a share would shareholders accept it....no blooming way imho.

Not impressed.

Great minds think alike.

I thought it should have been $200m at buyback price of £2.75 but not bad nonetheless.

Let's see what the market says today.

To finish the point should Treasury shares be reissued in the future at say £4/5 it is a benefit to existing shareholders who hold at say £2 as the proceeds are available for distribution eg a dividend of say 5% is more valuable to the £2 shareholders if you see what I mean.

Remember shares held in Treasury are a hidden asset to shareholders insofar as these shares can be reissued by the company in new shares for funding without prospectuses, offer documents etc and the resultant funds form part of the distributable reserves of the company for dividends.

Oldernowiser

I disagree with your suggestion of a 15p dividend.

If the company feels its shares are undervalued then it should make an open offer to existing shareholders to buy back their shares at a premium ie each shareholder would be offered say £2.75 up to a maximum of 20% of their holdings costing the company approx $200m with these shares then held in Treasury.

Puretech would still have existing cash of c$300m plus balance of Karuna proceeds of $100m plus royalties due from Royalty Pharma of $400m and additional royalties, milestone and sub licensing payments from Karuna over the next few years.

Alternatively or in tandem with the offer ,Puretech should look at a major acquisition to add to its portfolio .

There are so many possibilities available to them now and Puretech management need to be innovative to drive the SP higher after 10 years of underperformance.

I can't believe the SP is still languishing at £2 after todays RNS.

Laurence Reilly I should say

My phone is going bonkers tonight on fast text

Too old for this technical challenge..doh

A further interesting fact on the BMS takeover of Karuna is that BMS completed the deal in the knowledge that there are potential royalties payable to Puretech and Royalty Pharma of over $1billion..yes Royalty Pharma where our Non Executive Director, Laurence O'Toole is a Senior Vice President..

Cauldstream

Bristol Meyers bought Karuna Therapeutics for its Schizophrenia drug KarXT , for $14billion which got through Phase 3 trials and is awaiting final FDA approval in September this year.

The addressable market for Schizophrenia World-wide is c$6billion.

Should the FDA seek further tests in September then BMS is facing a problem of huge magnitude as the the deal is not contingent on final FDA sign-off.

This the world of international pharma who desperately need new drugs as , I have said, old drugs move out of patent protection and bog Pharma taking large risks to keep the party going.

Imho Dyor

In respect of comparing Immupharma with others , I should say.

The question investors should focus on in respect of compareImmupharma is valuation .

Is Immupharma good value at a current market cap of c£7/8m given its late stage drug portfolio in addressable markets for Lupus and CIDP of over $6b combined compared to , say, Amolyt at a €1billion with 1 late stage drug yet to be approved by the regulators.

That to me is the investment thesis.

Each to his or her views but surely nobody thinks we are worthless as was suggested a few weeks back by certain punters

Time will tell

Flash

So what if it takes 3 years

Phase 3 drugs in multi billion $ markets are rare and sought after.

For example Amolyt Pharma is being bought for up to €1billion even though its only Phase 3 drug currently for Hyperparatyroid started trials in 2023 and topline results not expected until sometime in 2025 which is just over 2 years in trials.

Does any investor in Immupharma think the company will still be independent at the end of the trials for Lupuzor and CIDP.

Not a chance imho

Jonah,

You are quite correct and it was the trial in Mauritius not Mozambique that eyebrows were raised over in the last Phase 3 trial.

The comments by Lord of Lolly are another example of some of the posts here recently saying that Avion and Immupharma went against the recommendation of the FDA in going straight to a Phase 3 Lupuzor trial.

This is totally wrong and deeply damaging to the company. The FDA asked for a dosing testing programme to be included in the trial as a proactive suggestion.

Initially Avion and Immupharma considered doing a short Phase 2 trial on a dosing regime ( over months) and immediately merging into a Phase 3 proper.

However after further review and consultation between all parties, it was considered that a full Phase 3 incorporating a dosage testing regime , the results of which would be released during a number of interim breakpoints in the trial. The FDA is apparently satisfied with this strategy and honestly does any rational person think that Avion is going to risk the wrath of the FDA and lose $25m by telling it to stuff its guidelines and advice particularly after 2 years of intensive discussions with the FDA.

Please contact Tim or Lisa to obtain independent clarification on this and any other matter.

The FDA doesn't make recommendations in trial procedures and protocol but gives certain guidance to companies undertaking these trials.

The FDA wanted a dose ranging study done for Lupuzor which was the basis of the original Phase2/3 but after consultation between the parties it was decided to move directly to Phase 3 with a dose ranging process to be integrated into the new Phase 3 hence the delay , in part, in appointing Simbec-Orion as the trial managers.

Flash

You obviously don't know much about medicines and drugs.

For instance there has no new antibiotics developed since 1987, the treatment for Diabetes is still injecting insulin into the body after 50 years , Glaucoma is still treated by eye pressure reducing drops as it was for 60 years etc etc.

Where progress has been made in chemotherapy for instance, is that the sclentists / chemists have developed the ability to mix old drugs together to get better outcomes.

Lupuzor was successful in Lupus patients who were Antibody Positive Lupus sufferers but the trial included all Lupus patients including in Mozambique

where the trial cohort was badly run.

In fact the original Lupuzor trial was badly designed with low dosages and inadequate resources and management.

Following the the exhaustive discussions with the FDA and a total overhaul of dosages and patient selection et al the new trial is a totally different beast.

In relation to my previous post on Karuna's KarXt schizophrenia drug , this is a reconfigured therapy based on previous drugs but now has been modified to allow intravenous doses to be replaced by slow release tablets .

So nothing really new or novel in the world of new drugs but great strides made in adapting and reformulating old drugs in combination with other therapies and being able to get these combo drugs into the human body without causing the immune system to reject them...

That's what Lupuzor does for Lupus patients in its reformulated new dosage and drug transmission protocols agreed with the FDA and the scientists in Alora Pharma and Immupharma France.

Or this is what we hope will lead to a successful Phase 3 trial if all goes well....but there is a risk it will fail.

Cheers

Cauldstream

When I said Immupharma should have at least a £50m market cap, I meant after a commercial deal is done in the near term but the valuation should move much higher as the trials progress.

The World Bio Technology markets are coming back to life and the acquisition of Karuna Therapeutics by Bristol Myers for $14b for its Schizophrenia drug KarXT drug awaiting FDA approval in September this year is an example of the prices being paid by the majors as their existing drugs programmes go generic.

By the way KarXT was developed by Puretech, where I have a big investment, and from which Puretech is is set to make hundreds of millions of $ even though it offloaded the development risks years ago by setting up Karuna as a separate entity funded by outside funding and investors.

Sound familiar?