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Lambo

Now that you have administered the last rites on Immupharma and urge investors to cash out before another death spiral placing, you must remember that at the current 1p , investors have in effect lost almost everything so why worry about a drop to .5p unless you wish to depart with some beer money.

With £65 million in tax losses, patents and 2 Phase 3 trials in the offing surely any scrap value is more than a couple of £million plus Immupharma's shares in Incanthera.

I have seen many AIM companies in worse straits than Immupharma and have survived and prospered.

I am going to see this out one way or the other.

ATB

The right notes..but not necessarily in the right order..Eric Morecambe.

Next date to watch is the 12 March when Karuna vote on the acquisition by BMS at an Extraordinary General Meeting.

A number of Karuna shareholders have launched legal action against the Directors in the US for what they maintain was a poor deal at below Karuna's true value of c$20 billion .

On approval by Karuna shareholders at the EGM the only remaining hurdle is the US Government regulatory approval on the transaction from a monopoly/ competition perspective which should be a formality.

The deal will then be concluded and is not dependent on the FDA approval of KarXT on the 26th September.

The share price of Puretech is restrained by the small chance of a hiccup in the acquisition but once it is confirmed I expect an immediate jump in the SP .

Dealt at 1p.

Still nothing from the company.

Disgraceful way to treat shareholders.

I was beginning to think I was more stupid than some think I am as Puretech remained stuck in the shallows and unloved despite the major uplift in its cash economic value based purely on the acquisition of Karuna by BMS.

Maybe with the Biotech markets showing signs of recovery after a 4 year depression , we may be in for good news at last.

Needs to hold £2 and move on to £2.50 over the coming weeks prior to the expected Capital Allocation in May /June.

ATB

Well, Lisa did reply to say she will share my thoughts with the Board.

Simple and concise reply but there you are.

In my follow up email to Lisa, I suggested ,in the event of a further capital raise, the Convertible Bond option perhaps partially secured by a lien over Immupharma's shares in Incanthera , should be the preferred option preferably issued to a friendly partner such as Alora.

I warned against another Lanstead deal as it is not a runner given the current share price and the abysmal performance of the previous deals.

I said all this conjecture could be totally superfluous in the event of a RoW deal on Lupuzor and /or a deal on CIPD with upfront payments.

Maybe I am whistling in the wind but it is important the Board is in contact with PIs such as ourselves.

For obvious reasons I said she need not reply.

ATB

Lisa Baderoon replied to my email this morning saying the company has no control over the current share price and market malaise

She said rumours are just rumours but the company took outside commentary seriously and she would forward my email to the Board.

As usual Lisa was very polite and quick to respond to my concerns regarding a deeply discounted placing or worse a delisting/liquidation.

I would encourage anyone here with questions to contact Lisa .

Lambo

I fully agree with you and things look bleak at the moment.

McCarthy is an absolute disaster and I suppose I was hoping for a takeover but as you quite rightly say the share price destruction is telling.

Anyway tomorrow or in a few days we will find out the truth.

ATB

Lambo

If your thesis is correct and a placing is at .05p then the share will immediately drop to c.02/3p making Immupharma shares immediately worthless and untradeable for ever .

Better liquidation imo or delisting so we can all move on and get our tax losses than a slow lingering death.

At .03p we will have lost everything so who cares now.

At 70 years of age and stuck here for 10 years at least it will be finally over.

Let's see over the coming days and tomorrow is going to be illuminating.

Lambo

If Immupharma delist/ liquidate then Lanstead loses everything as well as all shareholders.

Even if it delists Immupharma will need funding to survive .

If this is the endgame for Alora to buy Immupharma on the cheap then it is indeed a nasty denouement for us all.

Given the current market cap of c£5m how cheap can you get for a listed company with 2 Phase 3 drugs et al.

I fully agree that that the share price collapse augurs badly but it has been driven down by miniscule volumes and not uncommon in the current carnage on AIM.

On the optimistic scenario of good news the whiplash upwards could also be extreme should the TikTok horde pile in.

I have a feeling we shall know our fate in the coming days.

ATB

By the way my Google Finance watch list alerts are showing an earnings announcement due on Wednesday 21 February for Immupharma..all the other earniings update from the US and UK companies on the list are accurate.

If true we may get a RNS on Wednesday from Immupharma, hence the no response from Lisa!

Lambo

My reasoning here is if there is a massive discounted placing then I have in effect lost everything anyway .

I think there are other options available if cash is required and too many interested parties involved to allow Immupharma to go bust for the sake of a £million or so.

The deferred tax losses ( c £65m accumulated losses)

and the 2 two major Phase 3 drugs plus other peptide therapies and the potentially lucrative Incanthera investment surely are worthy of considerable interest to a potential predator/partner inho.

I suggest the company issue a 5 year Convertible Bond

of £2million at a conversion share price of 5p with additional security of Immupharma's shareholding in Incanthera being held by the Convertible Bond holder.

I will suggest this to Lisa tomorrow if I haven't heard back from her.

If Alora and Art Deas are serious about supporting the company during the trials then this may be an attractive and relatively cheap way to acquire an enhanced holding and they be interested in the Bond idea.

The liquidation of Immupharma and its French subsidiary for the sake of a few millions would a great folly.

The oleaginous McCarthy cannot be that stupid or can he !!

Lambo

Small top up

You are assuming a discounted placing while other options such as a Convertible Bond issue to a friendly investor may be the answer if Immupharma has good news to issue in tandem.

The drop brought in buyers and without an EGM to approve a Capital Reorganisation to consolidate the share price, Immupharma cannot place the shares at below 1p without firstly having an EGM which should be very lively indeed.

Well the big drop today has attracted buyers including myself .

I have emailed Lisa regarding the share price and lack of news from the Board reminding her that market sensitive information must be released immediately under Stock Exchange rules.

I will share any response once received.

ATB

Lesley

Fully agreed.

Time to reward shareholders now, not mañana, mañana.

At least with the $325m coming in within a few months from the closing of the Karuna takeover by Bristol Myers allied to the establishment of Seaport and Gallop to reduce significantly the development costs of a wide suite of in-house drugs, there are no more excuses not to return at least c$200M to shareholders very soon.

I think Zohar wants to do this as Invesco and other Institutional investors are getting very testy.

Big few months ahead.

TakeAim

I may have been too bullish on the timing of the remaining Royalty Pharma payments of $400m.

The company remains coy on the details of the agreement ( $100m already paid last year by Royalty Pharma) but a Royalties accountant friend of mine suggests that the next tranche of the balance of $400m will be paid on the FDA approval of Karuna's KarXT on the 26th September 2024 with the remaining amounts paid on commercial milestones most likely the achievement of $1billion and $2billion revenues from Karuna, now part of Bristol Myers.

Accordingly he suggested figures of $150m on regulatory approval in September and two further payments of c$100m and $150m on Karuna revenues of $1billion and $2billion respectively.

Puretech will receive a milestone payment of c$10m on FDA approval and 20% sub licence fees going forward.

Puretech will also receive 2 % in royalties on Karuna revenues above $2billion with Royalty Pharma getting 1% royalties over this figure.

Pure conjecture in the absence of the company confirming the details of the agreement but looks plausible.

What action Bristol Myers may take on the seepage of revenues from royalty payments is another interesting

feature of the deal.

ATB

Correction

Royalty Pharma is receiving 3% of Karuna revenues up to $2billion equal to $60million per annum for approx 10 years equal to c$600m...Bristol Myers see $2billion revenues as a base level in its acquisition document and much higher in its investor commentary.

Regarding the Puretech/ Royalty Pharma deal on royalties from Karuna it should be noted that Puretech has already received $100m of the total $500m agreed and it is my clear understanding that the balance of $400m will be received on the FDA approval of KartX in September.

This approval is almost certain otherwise why would Bristol Myers have paid $14billion for Karuna.

Royalty Pharma are getting 3% of all KartX royalties up to $2billion revenues equal to $600m plus 1% on all revenues above $2 billion which could amount to a further $40m per annum for say 8/ 10 years when revenues , for example, reach $6billion thereby giving Royalty Pharma a possible total ROI of up to 100% on its investment.

So why would Puretech forfeit part of its royalties rights if it wasn't paid upfront by Royalty Pharma.

Remember Puretech retains royalties of 2% over and above Karuna revenues of $2billion or possible annual payments of c $80m on revenues of $6billion

As Archer quite rightly says in his analysis you must risk discount these numbers for obvious reasons and so it is a great deal for Royalty Pharma and I am not sure Puretech would have done if it knew the Bristol Myers takeover was going to happen.

How Bristol Myers deals with such a revenue drain from the royalties is another issue altogether...it would be wise to take out Puretech now at say £4 a share or £1 billion which would be a snipe in the context of its $14billion acquisition of Karuna and get all of the c$700 million in cash ( including Puretech's shares in Karuna) plus the whole shooting gallery of Puretech's remaining assets.

This underlines the crazy undervaluation of Puretech shares imho.

I hope I got my figures correct as I am a bit jet lagged after returning from Florida after a month on the beer and sunshine 🌞.

ATB

Malt

Thanks for that news on today's RNS update.

I did not read it as I thought it was just another share purchase notification.

Confirms capital return on completion of Karuna acquisition by Bristol Myers which is due to be finalised within the next 2/3 months.

ATB

By the way I am not being critical of Archer's analysis which is very thorough and informative for new investors.

I only hope the market focuses soon

on the hidden gem that is Puretech before a smart predator swoops.