Member Info for dallo

TakeAim

Please see my posts of the 27th and 30th December for answers to your questions with a correction to the reference of Puretech's holding in Vedanta being now 41% not 47% as stated.

Also Puretech has confirmed in its December corporate update ( which you should read in detail)

that it is examining a return of surplus cash to investors by way of a special dividend and or further share buybacks.

Vedanta has raised c $400 m in financing to date from Pfizer, Bristol Myers, Gates Foundation and other large investors and has a valuation of c1billion per Wall Street analysts with an IPO muted for this year or next year.

The macro outlook for Pharma companies has dramatically improved in recent months with large Acquisitions, AI related advances in accelerating research and fast tracking of drug development and the ageing of Western and Chinese populations et al.

We are now becoming aware of the stark undervaluation of Puretech's shares and this anomaly is illustrated further by Puretech's investment in Vedanta Biosciences where it has a 47% shareholding and significant royalties potential.

Vedanta is valued at c$1billion with 4 major drugs at late stage development including one in Phase 3 trial and two in Phase 2 trials.

Vedanta has built state of the art manufacturing facilities near Boston and has raised c$400m in funding from major investors such as Invesco, Bristol Myers, Pfizer, the Gates Foundation.

Analysts are suggesting a potential market valuation of c$3-5billion on successful drug trials and an IPO is being muted for 2024.

So with Puretech's investment plus royalties in Karuna valued at c$1billion plus a potential return of over $1billion in Vedanta plus say $200 m in other founded entities we are up to over $2billion.

Then add Puretech's in house drug programmes including its late stage possible blockbuster Pulmonary Fibrosis( LYT-100) drug plus cash of c$320m and you have an economic value of c$3/4billion or over £10 a share.

Dyphne Zohar say she wanted to create a $10 billion Pharma company way back in 2021 .

She better be careful she is not usurped with an aggressive takeover approach at this crazy market cap.

Happy New Year.

Mickymix

The main shareholder in Puretech is the massive Invesco Fund Management Group with c23% of the total shares.

Invesco has reduced its shareholding from 34% in the past 3 years due to internal rules relating to Invesco holding major controlling stakes in companies.

The Invesco shareholding is now below the critical 25% level and they appear happy now but still have a huge influence.

I have been in contact with the company about the bizarre market mispricing of Puretech shares given the Economic Value ( EV) is approaching $2billion plus.

Puretech's investment in Karuna alone is potentially above $1billion as follows..$336m from 2.4% shareholding plus $400m from Royalty Pharma on Karuna revenues up to $2billion plus milestone payments of c$10 million on FDA approval plus 2% royalties on revenues above $2billion ( analysts estimate Karuna revenues to hit c$7billion for its Schizophrenia and Dementia drugs giving another possible $100 million annual royalties to Puretech .

Add in Puretech's 47% Investment in Vedanta which is unlisted but based on recent financing rounds from Investors including Pfizer and the Gates Foundation is valued at over $ 1billion.

Not to mention the 2 new Founded companies plus existing Founded companies with a conservative combined valuation of say $200m.

Finally we have Puretech's owned retained in house drugs described as the jewels in crown and potentially blockbusters by Puretech Management.

Oh I nearly forgot Puretech has cash of $330m.

Madness and I told Management that the company is very vulnerable to a takeover at this crazy share price and Market Cap of £500m.

Lastly some brokers like Bell have an SP target of over £9.

I rest my case.

ATB

I have looked again at the Bristol Meyers deal with Karuna and its implications for Puretech.

The benefits to Puretech are far beyond the headline news namely proceeds from shareholding of 2.4% in Karuna of $336m plus Royalty Pharma of c$400m plus $8M on FDA approval ( now certain) plus 2% of all royalties above $ 2billion sales where analysts are forecasting revenues for Bristol Meyers /Karuna of over $4billion giving Puretech additional annual royalty receipts of c$40 m per annum .

Rumours suggest Bristol Meyers will do a deal to clean up the royalties issue with Royalty Pharma and Puretech with a once off payment.

Also not unsurprisingly other rumours on Wall Street are saying a bid for Puretech is now a possibility given the accelerating consolidation in the Pharma sector which is coming back to life in a big way.

Great days ahead

Happy Christmas

Pokerchips

As I have mentioned before , I have an large investment in Puretech where one of its founded companies , Karuna , was today taken over by Bristol Meyers for $14 billion after Karuna's Schizophrenia drug KarXT was successful in a Phase 3 trial .

The market for Lupus is bigger than that for Schizophrenia and other mental health diseases but demonstrates the huge potential for Lupuzor not to mention CIPD.

I think with the appointment of Dr Laurence O'Reilly and the commencement of the Lupuzor and CIPD trials allied with a rest of the world deal for Lupuzor and a partner for CIPD, Immupharma could prove to be a very tasty proposition for large Pharma at a ridiculous market cap of just £6m.

With the imminent trials a valuation of c£50m or so would not be extreme imho.

DYOR

Mr A

Nasdaq Puretech price now c$25 up 35%

A

The censor knocked out the first part of your name??

I urge everyone to read the current update as it is the best and most investor focused corporate communication issued by Puretech to date.

****nal

if you read the update of 2 days ago you will see that $32m of karuna shares were sold by puretech since the 12 october via on market transactions leaving puretech with 2.4% as at the 19 december 2023.

i trust that clarifies matters.

Always

The fact that Bristol Meyers is paying $14billion means the FDA approval for Karuna's KarXT Schizophrenia drug is considered a formality and thus the receipt of up to $400m in royalties plus milestone payments on approval and incoming sharing with Bristol Meyers is now almost assured.

Don't forget Puretech has current cash balances of its own of C$340m.

Watch Puretech share price on Nasdaq this afternoon .

Always

Just saw the latest..Bristol Meyers to pay $14 Billion for Karuna so Puretech's 2.4% share is worth $336m

which is mind blowing.

Always

The shareholding of 2.4% currently held by Puretech in Karuna was confirmed in the update of 2 days ago ..so it is 2.4% of c$ 12 billion or say $290m.

Lovely Christmas present for Puretech shareholders.

Jesus

How wrong could I be if Bristol Myers is taking out Karuna.

Huge benefits to Puretech in value of its shareholding plus royalties et al.

Great news if true

Always

Reas update issued 2 days ago.

Major special dividend and / or share buyouts to be announced within weeks.

I have suggested to Kana in Investor Relations that the remaining Puretech 2.4% shareholding in Karuna valued at $200m be sold and used to fund the return of a similar amount to shareholders.

This message was passed on to the Executive management who I feel are already beginning this process.

The remaining Karuna Royalty payments of up to $400m payable to Puretech from Royalty Pharma plus

further milestone and income sharing receipts are enough risk/ benefit to carry in Karuna and hence the smart move is divest the shareholding in Karuna whose market cap of $8b is in my view is fully valued.

ATB

Up 14%

Let's see what happens on the Nasdaq opening

Interesting

Flash

You are suggesting that the SP could drop by 50% .

So Immupharma will have a market cap of £3 m even though it will have 2 drug therapies in Phase 3 trials .

Any big Pharma would pay £10/20 m to be involved in such late stage blockbuster drug trials and with Alora group paying $25m to conduct the Lupuzor trial are you serious about this crash in Immupharma SP?.

By the way the future funding options for Immupharma have been transformed by the announcement and could entail the issue of a Convertible Bond with equity exercise rights at a much higher SP than 1.6p.

Many players including Alora would be interested in this deal.

So perhaps you are unduly panicking just as the scenario looks decidedly rosier.

ATB

Cauldstream

I can understand some shareholders want to see detailed trial timelines and dates but for a small company like Immupharma albeit supported by the Alora group , organising a major Phase 3 trial for an extremely complex autoimmune disease like Lupus is no easy matter .

This trial is pivotal for Alora as well as Immupharma and much is at stake so it is vitally important they get it right.

Obviously Flash wants out and his selling will depress the share price particularly in these dog days leading up the Christmas.

Hopefully the new year will usher in brighter times for the long suffering faithful here in Immupharma.

ATB

A.S Watson, part of the massive C. K. Hutchinson group , I should say.

Flash

I respect your decision to exit if that is your investment decision.

However with the confirmation by the company of moving straight to a Phase 3 trial for Lupuzor, the appointment of a CRO and the continuing funding commitment from Alora /Avion, Immupharma is now a c£6m market cap minnow with a potential blockbuster drug in final stage trials after exhaustive and detailed discussions and guidance from the FDA on how best to navigate the trial for an optimal result.

Throw in CIPD where it is presumed will now enter a Phase 3 as well supported either by Avion or another partner then it is clear to me that Immupharma now has a value greatly in excess of its current market cap notwithstanding the length of the trials.

It is all about the first dosing of patients in the trials as a major catalyst for the share price and I hope a rest of the world partnership for Lupuzor and a full rights for CIPD will be announced in the coming months.

I expect interest in these partnerships to have been heightened as a result of the formal appointment of the CRO and confirmation of the Alora Groups continued support .

The presence of Lanstead is currently a drag on the share price but this can be easily resolved with additional positive newsflow.

I feel Immupharma is now an interesting corporate play for a larger Pharma and maybe Alora may be tempted to takeover the entire company.

Also the Incanthera deal with A.S. Watson part of the massive Group could see an unexpected return for Immupharma in 2024.

Anyway best of luck

DYOR

C K Hutchinson

Superb update today.

New founded entities established to fund and drive forward some of Puretech's wholly owned therapies thereby releasing funds for shareholders.

Special dividend and/or share buybacks to be announced.

Sale of remaining 2.4% equity interest in Karuna looks likely in the near term releasing c $200m for distribution to shareholders.

Vedanta progressing very well and could be next Karuna with multi billion valuation with c 47% shareholding held by Puretech.

Other founded entities, apart from Gelesis , moving along and the wholly owned drugs being kept in house by Puretech could be blockbusters after trial results later in 2024.

All in all fantastic news and validates everything I have said in my previous posts.

As usual the UK Stock Market hasn't responded in terms of an uplift in the Puretech share price...maybe Nasdaq will.

ATB

Nolupus

Septic tanks rhyming slang for Yanks..you could be right and maybe more news from the US very shortly with Dr O'Reilly on board.

Excellent analysis once again , Nolupus.

You may be tempted some day to buy a few shares.

Now that would be a major bull signal.

ATB