Member Info for Daisan

Ophidian,

It's the nature of investing in BMN isn't it? The big picture activities are spot on. It is the detail that is frequently lacking as though they consider these things unimportant. Another classic example of this is slipping the Brits drill results in which surely warrants a separate report and which, I am pretty convinced, were probably available some time ago. Or at least should have been considering how long ago they were done.

Whilst I have nowhere near your expertise it is clear from the numbers issued that they have had some success in addressing the issues, at least in part. What we still don't have is a 3750mtv run rate, however, and this would suggest that whoever reported the October production (my apologies - I cannot recall who this was) was probably accurate with the production numbers which would suggest that 750mtv is a base case for Q4 barring any further mishaps. Personally I would be looking for 800mtv or more to suggest that the new nameplate capacity is approachable in 2019. At 800mtv cash generation will be very strong indeed in Q4.

It is odd that they indicate shares of miners are the way to play the market and then mention no UK quoted companies!

There has been a notable shift since the large seller has ceased selling and we have had a new buyer active. Whilst I know that this is stating the obvious, it has had significant implications for the price activity.

Our seller was quite benign on the share price, selling only as much as the market would accept. This worked as there was considerable underlying demand for the company's shares. However, our buyer faces a rather different conundrum in the fact that they are now adding demand to an already unbalanced situation. As such, the strength of the share price is very obvious.

One other thing has become clear and that is the treatment of news. Whilst the seller was active bad news would slow the underlying buying and would, hence, provide the market players with an opportunity to drop the price whilst good news would merely allow the seller to sell more quickly. Now bad news is quickly seen as a buying opportunity and good news (I would suggest that we have yet to see this in this new paradigm) is likely to give the share price even more momentum.

Of course, it will be interesting to see how the big buyer behaves over the coming weeks as they may well reach their accumulation target. Until then the share price would appear to be well underpinned.

No. It is negotiated trade.

Note sure whether this has been posted:

https://www.uploadlibrary.com/SPAngel_JohnMeyer/Bushveld_UpgradeII.pdf

It is certainly worth a read as there is some interesting stuff in there. I suspect that most will be familiar with the content as it is something that we live and breathe on a daily basis. Some will no doubt get a little irritated by the odd mistake but it is a decent summary.

Nickderby,

It is annoyingly inexact! If you look at the full note it also mentions 90p as a price target so discrepancy everywhere. I confess that I am a little OCD about numbers but accuracy would be much appreciated.

Personally I object to error on the basis of principle. When statements are made that they cannot see how the supply/demand situation can be addressed in the next couple of years and then say that the price for next year will be 40% lower than the current price (at least that is better than the >60% drop!), I feel that this should be challenged. I am less concerned about target prices unless there is clearly an error.

On this, I am surprised that nobody has picked up on the 87p or £1.12 discrepancy!

Is he trolling you directly Alfacomp as he doesn't seem to have tweeted at all?

Am I reading this incorrectly?

"Valuation: Our valuation for Bushveld Minerals rises to US$1.6bn assuming an 8% discount rate and a long term exchange rate of ZAR14/USD or 87 pence per share on our new vanadium price assumptions."

By my calculations $1.6bn = £1.23 = £1.12/share

Yes Nickderby. But it was even more difficult to reconcile the two sets of statements with price prediction for 2019 of $35 and then $45/kg! At least he is moving in the right direction.

I actually believe that $75/kg is a realistic long term price for FeV. There is no doubt that considerable extra supply will kick in at some point to balance supply with demand. It is just that that point is rather unpredictable and certainly not within the next 2-3 years.

Gambitxjs,

That is not the case. EBITDA figures were provided in Q3 2017 for example.

I was wondering whether this would come today given the nature of the share price move late yesterday (whilst I rarely even think about insider knowledge in transactions, I would look out for late trades published from yesterday as these would look suspicious and suggest that someone knew the RNS today was coming even if they didn't know the contents).

After a brief glance, the production guidance has come in at slightly less than I had anticipated, owing to the fact that I forgot about the action in July. Losing 3 weeks production in a 13 week period is going to hit hard. But the reduction is less than the headline impact would suggest which may indicate some improvement on the grade issue.

Infuriatingly they have removed the EBITDA calculation again.

On the interesting side we have comments like the following which provides some anticipation around Mokopane advancement:

"The Company continues to explore means to supply ore from the project to plants in China and / or elsewhere in the world."

All in all it is as predicted but disappointing all the same. There will be casual investors who will just look at the headline numbers and depart without considering the future or in the hopes of buying back more cheaply. This combined with anticipatory moves by the market makers should see this marked down initially. How much, I don't know but I would expect to see some supportive buying on a drop.

The good news is that this is the bad news out of the way which should open up opportunity for some movement on the more positive aspects going forwards.

Looks like we have had a couple of sells at 39.15p and 38.75p. I can't see what the volume was. Anyone?

capra,

I would give up to be honest. He prefers to talk to himself and will eventually run out of money based on what I have seen of his investments and strategy. At that point perhaps he will stop posting and destroying every board he goes on. It is annoying and the fact that you can see that he has posted even when he is filtered is also annoying but there you go.

We have risen over 40% in the last couple of weeks so if we have had the brakes on all that time then taking them off could be a rather scary ride. I am happy to have the brakes applied at the moment.

And who says we have to be the acquired rather than the acquisitor?

It is good to see that the expectations for Q3 are relatively low. Whilst EBITDA is likely to see a continued improvement over Q2 (but at a slower pace), production numbers will not be great and it will be interesting to see sales figures as this will be indicative of whether the 'rumoured' force majeure declaration actually did lead to reduced sales.

Whilst it is over 3000mtv per annum run rate (at 3140.4), it is still far short of the new nameplate capacity so I would not be surprised if we see this figure beaten in November (despite there being one less day) and maybe December (not sure what the effect Christmas has on operations).

Actually, thinking about this, does anyone definitively know the operations hours of the Vametco plant?

Interesting if that is the case as it doesn't reflect the information that has been posted on Asianmetal the last few days. Of course, there is always a debate to had as to what figures are accurate or timely. However, Asianmetal price activity is suggestive of a bottom outside of China so that may well support this data if one assumes a time lag.

Where does this information come from BigBiteNow?

Well, I for one am certainly here for the occasional laugh. No point to life without enjoyment.