Member Info for Daisan

Just goes to show how you can get somewhat different results on this. The trend channel I traced out was slightly different and included the peak in May. If you project from that the action yesterday more clearly broke the top of the channel. Today is important as it will either reinforce yesterday's activity or negate it. It is also a weekly close which is considered to be more significant.

I agree with maccas21 about the potential steepening of the trend channel, at least in the short term as the market adjusts to the lack of the substantial seller. This should lead to greater volatility so those that like to trade can sharpen their knives. It will be interesting to see what pattern it settles into but it wouldn't surprise me if the upper trend line became the lower trend line of a new channel.

This price activity seems to fit the narrative of a buyer's strike. Unlikely that Chinese product is making its way out of China at the moment which is causing a hiatus in the upwards pressure there. Outside of China they are still refusing to purchase at these levels. Unfortunately they are going to learn the hard way that you can't buy something that doesn't exist.

Trying to establish short term movements is very hit and miss. It is quite often the case that share prices can tread water between RNS but I am sure we have all seen instances where the opposite happens (good RNSs do little but then the share price springs to life). In the current market outside of BMN good RNSs are met with selling, bad RNSs are met with a hammering of the share price. Longer term trends are easier to establish.

Barchart is just a set of automated algorithms. These will deliver a variety of results, some of them leading indicators but likely to carry more risk, some trailing but lower risk. The reading tends to go to 100% once it already has a fair amount of momentum. Sometimes it can say 100% sell or 100% buy just at the point at which the direction changes (i.e. they are advising sell/buy at the worst possible time). As such, I tend to find Barchart almost completely useless.

This is classic TA and I believe that you are correct in your assertion that we have broken out of that channel. However, one swallow does not make a summer and one daily close does not indicate a definitive breakout. A weekly close would be much stronger evidence as would a few days over the upper bound of the channel. It is very common for a breakout to be back tested so do not be surprised if the share price retraces a little to test the upper bound. If that testing is successful then it is bullish for a further rise. Failure would be very bearish.

The other positive to be taken about today is that the volume was strong - a breakout on strong volume is a bullish sign and I would be looking for confirmation of this volume to continue tomorrow.

Whilst not definitive I think today is very strong evidence of a continuation of the uptrend. And to be honest, that is essentially stating the bleeding obvious.

Gary is a good guy. OK, he contributes to a dismal site but his opinions are genuinely useful. I would welcome his contribution here.

They are usually around. The market isn't closed yet!

I doubt it. I think that is probably just due to innate conservatism over the Vanadium price.

Almost Sanchez. Bushveld does things in threes though. So:

1. 2019 - £1
2. 2020 - £3
3. 2021 - £9

:-)

And you!

33p paid. Is that a new high?

Ok, reading this I suspect that I have over complicated things (a character flaw I'm afraid). So for most AIM investors, the following might be more useful:

1. Lots of cash - NO NEED FOR A PLACING
2. Generating lots more cash NOW
3. Going to be generating a lot more cash in the future

The real problem is limiting it to three as there are so many macro and micro positives.

1. Vanadium is in a structural supply deficit without a futures market to prevent price discovery. The deficit is unlikely to be eradicated within the next couple of years (at least) as supply is inelastic whilst demand is increasing owing to VRFB take up and regulations increasing the use in steel

2. South Africa has the potential to improve as an investment destination whilst Bushveld is priced at a level commensurate with a hostile regulatory environment

3. The board of directors have proved themselves capable of extremely value adding, innovative deals. With the assets they have, the next deal is likely to transform the outlook once again

I could equally say:

1. The vertically integrated offering enables Bushveld to address the huge energy storage opportunity whilst benefiting from the upside created by Vanadium price increases

2. Bushveld have control over their own future prosperity as they have exceptional tier 1 assets and the ability to ensure the successful adoption of VRFBs to best leverage those assets

3. With exceptionally strong cash generation to add to significant cash on the balance sheet, Bushveld not only do not need to raise money (unless for a transformational deal) but can afford to significantly enhance their operations whilst delivering a dividend

I am pretty sure that I can produce another couple of 'top threes' but we are all likely to be covering the same thing.

Prices outside of China down again (although less so) whilst Chinese prices are beginning to flatten. It is inevitable that we will have slowdowns in the Vanadium price as nothing goes up in a straight line even if demand outstrips supply. human psychology dictates that purchasers will get annoyed and stop buying temporarily whilst traders will get anxious that they will be left with stock at a market top. This creates a "shark's teeth" type price rise. The more surprising price action is the straight line rise that we have been seeing recently.

That said, the market outside of China is a false market in my opinion. The dynamics of the market suggest that the one thing that cannot be sustained is considerably weaker prices outside than inside China as China is traditionally the exporter. Weaker prices outside of China will just result in Chinese traders keeping their product at home where they can achieve better prices. Ergo the price in US and Europe must rise due to lack of product (at the same time as the Chinese prices stall). We may well be seeing the start of this exact price activity now. I would keep an eye on this in the short term as I would expect Chinese prices to slip slightly in such a scenario. If they don't then this bull market has much. much further to go as it would imply Chinese prices remaining strong despite all of their production being targeted internally.

The buyers may well cause this by striking but their need for product doesn't stop. As such, when the demand comes on again we should see renewed strong price rises across the board but the strongest will be outside of China for some time as they catch up to the point where China begins to export again. I wouldn't be surprised if US/European prices rose more than the usual 2-3% per day in this case.

I remain concerned by all of this activity. Despite the fact that logic suggests that the supply/demand imbalance is not going to go away any time soon, experience suggests that these situations never end well for anyone. We had better make hay whilst the going is this good as the opportunities are profound currently.

Just filter him.

XTR. "Excellent gold exposure". That's the first time I have seen those two things in th same sentence!

Well, if it is over £10 and chucking out £600k a year, I am not sure that I would be worrying too much about tax.

Hmm. Try telling the investors in Tesla that.

OK. The only thing that makes sense is that this appears to be a purchase of shares in Barrick Gold which trades over C$16 a share currently. They are currently in a takeover process with Randgold Resources (RRS) which maybe where the confusion has been created although I have no idea why this mistake appears to have been made. And a mistake seems like the most obvious explanation although I would love for Barrick to take a stake here (and, no, I don't want a takeover just the potential for a JV or buy out of an asset such as Beutong).

The issue now would potentially be compensation as a number of people bought in on the back of this release.

Hawkspear.

Apologies - my comment wasn't directed at you.