Member Info for Daisan

I confess that I have given up looking out for news of Mokopane or, indeed, brownfield operations (which have been mentioned so often). The Mokopane licence is out of BMN's hands. What is entirely in BMN's hands is the dividend policy so I would feel very disappointed if this was not forthcoming in the run up to Christmas.

An update on Bushveld Energy is a given.

Alfacomp. Don't take life so seriously.

I had an exchange with the person responsible for pumpedordumped. Nice person whom is enthusiastic about this stuff and was only doing it as a bit of a laugh. We discussed potentially doing text clustering, combining this with share price data and throwing some statistical techniques at it to see whether we could establish relationships between bulletin board discussions and share price performance (rather than just number of posts). That was a while ago and nothing really happened.

Phew! That's a relief.

I may still be here in 5 years time but not with the level of holding I currently have. I have another investment thesis that I expect to pan out during the next few years and will be shifting a significant amount into that. I will endeavour to continue to be the acceptable face of irritation on this board.

Excellent patientvulture. And I have to say I agree with the guy pretty much 100% - high prices are here for some time to come and when they do settle it will be at a higher than historic price. In fact, I was working on the basis of $50-80/kg so not far off his assessment at all. But for the next couple of years at least I am expecting $100+/kg with the potential for the '+' to be '+++'.

Don't use £10.89 as target price for expenditure?!?!?!?

But I've already ordered the yacht!

I managed to get this/SHG all kinds of wrong.

I invested in both at the same time (some time early 2016 I believe) but more in SHG than AAZ. Managed to get in @ 6p but sold in the late 20s when they stopped mining Gedabek and shifted to the new pit for a while. At the time it just seemed like a risky thing to do and for me was worthwhile selling with the idea of buying back in should the new situation stabilise. Of course, then I didn't check in that regularly and it has been on a tear ever since I started looking at it again. In the meantime SHG has run up against the Tanzanian government playing hard ball on miners by not refunding their VAT!

Still, at least I put my AAZ money in BMN so not all lost!

Well done to those who still hold from the early days and good luck for the future.

Grrr.

Could everyone in a region where the temperature is currently greater than 2 degc please stop posting!

How lovely for you.

I couldn't agree more. So why are we all wasting our time on this bulletin board? Time to get out and enjoy the sunshine even if it is cold enough to freeze ones genitalia off.

Delayed publishing?

Rob1967,

Whilst I agree that those are all share price moving pieces of news, I do not expect them to be earnings enhancing, at least for 2019. Clearly dividends are not. Lemur is likely to be spun out and is, in any case, likely to consume cash rather than produce it for the next couple of years. Brits will likelybe a part of Vametco's continued production increases and cost reductions and BE is also likely to consume rather than generate case in the short term.

So we are left with brownfield which has been spoken about ad nauseam and by which I assume to mean a new (to BMN) processing facility (such as Vanchem). Whilst this is likely to be transformational in the medium to long term, in the short term it too is likely to require funding to purchase and bring it up to a level where it is generating profits.

The only things I can see that would be considered to be earnings enhancing for 2019 are Vametco production increases and, marginally possible, some form of ore export for processing elsewhere.

TheWiseBadger,

Illegitimi non carborundum.

I prefer to be conservative in these things. For BMN to be making after tax earnings of £300m you would have to assume a pre-tax all-in margin for Vametco of $144k per tonne at a 5000 tonne run rate (and that run rate is not due until the end of 2019). Whilst I am very bullish on Vanadium and BMN's production upgrades, I would struggle to see those kinds of figures.

I would like to see BMN make verified progress on production before assuming a run rate. Q4 is a useful guidance in terms of how we are progressing. Remember that the upgrade to the plant was completed in June and this was supposed to increase output up to 3750. Figures since, although skewed by a strike and unplanned maintenance, have not suggested anywhere near this run rate. And if we consider the statement a few days ago about October production of 260mtv at face value, we are still falling short of the required run rate and have to assume that there is some time to go before that is the case. Even if we get to notional optimal operation, it is usually prudent to factor in a shortfall. I would suggest that operating at 90% of nameplate is reasonable.

So, let's see what Q4 gives us in terms of production and then we can use that as a basis for projecting 2019's likely output.

This is a staggering read. We can all theories about the supply and demand situation but this is someone who is actually working directly in the field and observing the deficit in action.

Just a couple of excerpts:

"It is estimated that China will produce about 100,000t of vanadium pentoxide during the whole year of 2018, while the total demand will reach about 120,000t in 2019 according to increasing downstream demand, with the supply shortage being above 20,000t or even above 30,000t."

"....which is to say at least in the coming one and a half years the Chinese market will be suffering from supply shortage of vanadium pentoxide"

"With market demand not receding, prices will keep going up until the gap between the two sides is fully filled. Considering the current market conditions, I am confident about vanadium pentoxide prices in China in the coming year."

I have read many times over the last few months about Vanadium prices levelling off before falling. We had the latest reports from Fastmarkets (and these cannot be just blithely ignored) suggesting a peak in Q1 2019 before falling heavily back down to $60/kg in Q3. Each time I have asked where the supply is coming from or demand is falling to reach a balance. Each time there has been little response other than a reiteration of their position.

This interview confirms my belief that there is little currently in sight that can prevent continued upwards pressure on the Vanadium price and that people who are arguing for a fall are doing so because that is what they want or hope to happen. Or because this always happens with Vanadium and other commodities when they rise so quickly so it has to happen here. Well, clearly reality is getting in the way of a good story currently.

Desktop is but mobile is OK which I always find a little bizarre.

I have just been reading around the forum. I recommend it to anyone - it is hilarious. Just on the BMN thread we have this classic post:

"Such threads should be removed, they undermine the quality of this forum."

Why do I get visions of Marie Antoinette saying 'let them eat cake'?

"

They are clearly risk averse and unwilling to do more than cursory research once their beliefs have been confirmed in their eyes. But their reaction to a new poster is not dissimilar to certain other boards.

Just checked and there was a trade immediately before it @ 43.025 and immediately after @43.5 so it looks like a buy that pushed up the ask.