Member Info for Daisan

Considering the amount of good news that we are awaiting, it seems that, between the quarterly updates, we have more bad than good! Considering that there have been good news items (US development grant, mines and money award) it is surprising that these are not also released.

Somewhat embarrassing and I agree with the judgement. Or at least I would if this was a real exchange and that the Nomads were credible companies. Still, it is all in the past, the judgement doesn't indicate that there was anything too Machiavellian and the sum relatively minor in the scheme of things. I find it amazing that someone would sell on the back of that though.

Please don't. One of the most annoying things on these boards is the question "Does somebody know something?"

Interesting one. Difficult to definitively associate this with any particular holder to assess whether this is the start or end of selling! 12m is over 1.5% of the company so we may well see a notification.

I was not looking for a placing given that they have been looking at project level financing at Singida for some time and that the NL mine looks like it is generating cash at a good rate currently.

The indication here that October and November have been the best two months of the year so far suggest that they have produced at least 17.5k oz this quarter to the end of November. At that rate the quarter will be 26k+ oz which would be a very good result considering where we were and the cash generation would be very useful indeed in paying down the debt.

Paludina, Do you have details of the Reading electrolyte producer?

It would be good to see a gradual increase in production to reflect a movement towards the nameplate capacity. As I have said previously, I am hoping to see 800mtv this quarter as a clear sign that we are doing exactly this but in reality anything over 770mtv would be an indication of exceeding the previous capacity levels.

I am well aware of the existence of this coffee. You can carry on posting about this as I find the concept nauseating. Cheap beer in paradise is frankly not acceptable.

I think that brings to 4 the number of people stipulating (and agreeing) where support lies, so from a TA perspective, as with a fundamentals perspective, there is consistency.

In terms of the flag, I believe I suggested a couple of days ago that this would target approx. 59p should the price break out of the flag pattern to the upside. So far the price action appears to be consistent with this thesis.

Knutsfordnotary, I suggest that you might want to 'do the math' again!

I think that people need to review what is meant by TA. These are not guaranteed numbers and any TA exponent who suggests such should be avoided as they have been drinking their own coolaid. These are implied 'pivot points' if you like based on the historical behaviour of the share price and that of other companies. They do no guarantee that the price is going to go to a certain number either up or down and the picture can be altered wildly by news for single companies (less so for wider markets). So don't be surprised of it doesn't fit perfectly with predictions and be aware that the current price action will also affect the nature of future predictions - it is a moving feast. As such, a prediction made 6 months ago may well be modified now.

1onic is a good guy (within the limits of what anyone knows about another poster on these boards). I would certainly not class him as a troll.

Pdub,

Why worry? You are not selling and the lower price attracts new entrants which sets up a future rise.

The evidence of the previous few weeks suggests that this is certainly the case. However, over the weekend a Twitter post by someone with a very dubious reputation was also suggesting to short the share on the back of news that he felt would cause weakness in the Vanadium price (actually, the news would suggest precisely the opposite but, hey, who is counting?)

Not sure what you will find on Comex 1onic. There are no futures for Vanadium.

To put a traditional TA spin on this, a move to 37p ish over that period will carve out a flag pattern which is a bullish continuation of an upwards trend. It even comes with a target on positive breakout, which is the length of the 'pole' added to the bottom of the flag. I am working on the basis of 28p to 50p representing the 'pole'. If 37p is the base then that suggests a minimum target of 59p.

One further element to this is the current head and shoulders pattern, the neck line of which has been broken. As it is sloping the target for completion looks around..... 37p.

Ok, I confess that I have just eyeballed this rather than sat down in detail so don't take these as gospel if you believe in any of it at all of course.

Interesting movements the last couple of days. I would love to know the volumes concerned as there as been a significant movement down in the FeV price, prices which have been under pressure, at least in China, since the beginning of November (i.e. when the new rebar regulations in China came in).

I have been watching the price situation quite closely to see what scenario is going to play out. My best case was that, as Chinese prices had become so out of line with the rest of the world and since there was an apparent buyer's strike, Chinese prices and RoW prices would gradually converge before a direction of travel was determined with product shifting to China where there were better prices. This seemed to be taking place with Chinese prices falling and RoW prices stable/rising.

We are now at a significant juncture as the prices are broadly converged. There are several options as I see it:

1. Continued shortage of product will start to bite and prices resume their rise globally.
2. Prices remain static or drop a little as stockpiles built up ahead of the rebar regulation enforcement, which caused a sharper than expected spike in prices, are unwound before prices resume a rise, albeit at a gentler pace than previously
3. Prices lack direction as the rebar standards are only adopted slowly
4. Prices move lower as the rebar regulations are widely flouted
5. Prices collapse as rebar regulations are flouted and environmental dictats are ignored in China so consumption flattens whilst supply increases

I rule out 5 as environmental protection legislation seems to have been enforced rigorously to now and I see no reason to suspect a change. I cannot see in the current pricing activity a return to 1 - the prices are currently softening. So unsurprisingly the extremes are ruled out.

Which leaves 2, 3 and 4. At the risk of skirting the issue, I think that we are likely to see a combination of all three and the current price correction suggests to me that there was definitely an element of stockpiling in the run up to the rebar standards change and that this is now unwinding. In addition, I expect both a slow implementation of the standards and a fair amount of flouting, at least until somebody is made an example of. With this in mind, I feel that the most likely movement in the short term is further weakness but that this will be replaced by a gentle rise should the Chinese government be serious about the revised standards and remain steadfast about the environmental legislation (I see no reason to doubt this currently).

I like you less by the day fatbanker!

Hi 1onic,

How is life on the 'M' board?

"Ophidian is the only poster persistently pushing EWT and other technical analysis based on shorting principles."

As I am entitled to disagree I will! This post suggests that you may wish to do some research into the subject you are disparaging.