Member Info for Daisan

It's complete gridlock by the looks of things. The drop hasn't flushed out any sells that I can see and people are not willing to go to NT to buy some.

IG is a spread betting/CFD only platform is it not? If so, they will go back to the market for any shares you buy and sell in this way, hence the difference.

Which is a classic 'tree shake'. As if we need one!

Interestingly I was looking at BMN on Google finance when they dropped the price. Nothing abnormal. Last trade went through at 25.29 before the drop. I didn't see anything else so no idea where this has come from again. There seems to be a completely disconnected trading pattern currently which is not even resolved by the publishing of late trades.

So, both Largo and Bushveld position increased by over 44%. The last time I looked they were running at a 5% premium to NAV so there is no way that they would need to issue so many shares based on NAV premium, especially since the price of the fund has come off quite a bit.

Does anyone know if their non-Vanadium assets have increased similarly?

Whilst the fund has to increase the shares in issue if they go to a premium (and vice versa) which they have been recently, that appears too great an increase purely based on that premise.

This is just psychology at work unfortunately. Watching your pot drop day after day will wear a percentage of investors down and they crack and sell. We have seen it on several occasions recently. Of course, money can be made by taking advantage of the drop as ultimately the shorters have to close their positions.

I believe that they have a core position that remains but the day to day activity looks like it may well be closed out - it is significant to see the number of 30k/50k guys that follow these 'attacks' which look to me like these trades are timed to disrupt but once they have achieved their aim they unwind them and allow the PIs to sell.

The 30k and 50k sells at opportune moments are very obvious but there are still people selling which is the reaction they are looking for of course. They rely on human nature in these situations and will prod and poke if they feel that the reaction is likely to be there and back off if not (such as the strong rise a couple of days ago).

A full penny drop.

Well, if the volumes were high enough then a TR1. Otherwise they wouldn't.

I should imagine that the price environment should be encouraging many of these projects to pick up but what is the capability of the market to supply the necessary electrolyte? There has hardly been much encouragement over the last year to increase electrolyte production capability.

Which is why, if I was the shorter, I would want a contractual obligation that the loaner would not buy in the market!

It is not often that you see the closing share price lower than the lowest trade price of the day. Those who want the price lower will be happy with the close and you can be pretty sure that we will see a 30k/50k sell at the opening tomorrow as they try to ensure that the momentum is maintained.

Endion, Q1 seems to be a very different situation to Q2. China led it down in Q1, Europe in Q2. It doesn't mean that it wasn't China inducing the drop in Europe in Q2 - they could have flooded the market. It is interesting though. What changed in late March?

Indeed. But I am not aware of this happening in a way that was clearly published although I have often wondered. If the loaner of the shares effectively buys all of the loaned out shares then you get the potential for a Volkswagen situation. Which is fun.

There is a scenario where it makes perfect sense. If you want to build up a large stake but to do so would increase the price enormously you could buy a portion of your target and loan it out. Selling this suppresses the price and brings the necessary liquidity. I confess that this is just a scenario. I have never heard of this in practice and if I was borrowing the stock I would only do so with the caveat that the lender does not buy in the market!

Well, there is no point shorting if it doesn't attract other sellers otherwise when they close the short they will, at best, break even. There has been evidence of some selling today with a few trades of 100k shares or so that look like PI sells. The 250k trades look like part of a larger sell programme to me but nobody can say for sure (except the seller of course)

If a scheme is put in place there is no reason why shares could not be bought, held in treasury and then offered subsequently on a market. However, I have rarely seen such a thing succeed in a falling share price. It just seems to increase liquidity without stopping the decline. The company just need to deliver operationally and strategically. The rest is up to shareholders and the Vanadium related markets. Does anyone doubt which direction the share price will go in the event of improving production numbers combined with a stronger Vanadium price?

emil11,

I believe that you are misreading the nature of the convertibles. Yes, for a 60 day period it is as you have indicated but after the initial period they can convert at 90% of the 5 day average vwap of their choosing from the previous 20 days.