Member Info for Daisan

He posted earlier on Twitter.

I was going to post that we haven't seen that many 30k/50k trades recently when the one at 13:10 popped up which was responsible for the latest mark down. They are persistent if nothing else.

It does indeed but it will take a few of these to impact meaningfully. A one of will attract the traders and most will be gone by the end of the day. It will be interesting to see whether it can hold onto the gains at the end of trading - that would be a good sign of momentum.

I'm guessing that there are a few more 30k/50k trades to be published!

Yep. It looks like they are having another go.

I am not sure that this has a following at the moment to sustain the rise and will have a fair number of stale bulls who will sell into early rises. There is also the convertible notes to consider.

This is undoubtedly good news for AURA and a better focus than the Vanadium side. I am pretty positive about Uranium prices going forwards so this is one to watch from this aspect. Hate the convertibles though!

Judging by all the delayed reversals, somebody had a bad day at the office yesterday! It would be nice if they could actually publish trades on the day they were made rather than clogging up today's prints.

Uksteveg,

I think that there is evidence to suggest that the last few weeks have caused a range of investors to cut back their holdings. There have been several occasions where large numbers were dropped at the lows which could have been an investor giving up (or, indeed, a stop loss). Most traders that I have come across tend to deal in much smaller volumes to avoid liquidity issues.

Indeed. When volume is low the price tends to be more volatile on smallish trades so it makes the price more 'malleable'. I actually don't think that the shorters active here are using up that many shares - they have a 'core' short and then appear to use a small number of shares to undermine the share price to attract enough sells to drop the price further. There is evidence that they are closing out these trading positions quite quickly.

Given the price action of the last few weeks I suspect that their aim is to ensure that the end price is below the start price on most days as this further erodes confidence and makes their job that much easier. It's not a pleasant process really.

Looking at the trades I believe that there are indeed some PIs selling at this level although I can also see the usual pattern of 30k/50k trades at key moments so there is undoubtedly the usual activity at play as well. Quite often the reason why a PI will sell in these circumstances is not because they are disappointed with the news but rather that they are disappointed with the share price response. The actions of the past few weeks to slip in well timed sells are designed to undermine and nudge sentiment, usually from the opening bell. On an up day they can just wait until there is a local top before starting the activities again, as we saw yesterday.

calamari,

The Vanchem purchase is an obvious reason why the policy may have been delayed but it may also have been due to the Vanadium price - both the rapid rise and the rapid fall. It may be that they were envisaging a different policy or that they wished the future to be much clearer before committing. Understandable and if this was stated at the time I wonder whether the market would have taken it any better?

The policy they have announced based on FCF is the correct one. It would be nice to have a predictable percentage attached to it but Bushveld is a work in progress and I suspect that there are more surprises to come even beyond Vanchem that will keep the level of available cash for distribution unpredictable.

Investor81,

These are very good points. I think people would do well to look at the current assets vs current liabilities. Quite an eye opener.

I think that the delay was probably caused by the Vanchem purchase which will consume a fair amount of capital.

Free cash flow was always the sensible option but the problem is that, for a growing company, you are likely to get a very lumpy dividend if the policy is a percentage of the FCF as the capital requirements are very variable. As such, it needs to be decided on a year by year basis which is what they have communicated.

The company is rightly focusing on growing the production base as in the future size and cost base will define the winners in the Vanadium space.

You're a bit out of date. They have had $2m of funding since then so cash isn't the problem. Ramping up production is the problem and that requires additional funding.

Well, they could go all Fibonacci on us as well. That would play well considering TA.

Ha! Whilst you can admire the mathematics, this seems utterly pointless. They are just playing.

Ironically they dropped the price on the back of it.

11:00 auction I assume. I would ignore it.

Unfortunately, as usual we can only see a select few of the trades. As the price dropped shortly after 10:30 and there were no obvious trades we will have to wait to see what pops up. But you can bet that there were 30k or 50k trades in there somewhere.

I am amazed if we still have a single large seller given the volume yesterday and this morning. Yesterday's rapid rise in particular should have been a good opportunity to dump large amounts.

I confess that my natural instinct is to think that this is a sell as the early trades were at a point when the price was plunging and they may well have been struggling to place the last amount. It may be that they held off to get a price subsequently for the latter part of the trade after the RNS was released.

Of course, it is possible that it was a buy and that the final part was difficult to fulfill as the price was already rising but I find it difficult to believe that they could not have completed it at a price below 25p.

All 'ifs', 'buts' and 'maybes'!