Member Info for Daisan

Banksman, Yes indeed! Given the fact that DCP suffered all elements (fire, water, earth and air) in the run up to their demise, you probably don't want anything to do with their equipment.

They have rejigged the constituents of the GDXJ (to a great deal of consternation and suggestions of some rigging going on!) because it became too big for its sector. The end result appears to be the need to sell off portions of their positions in a number of stocks - I have seen suggestions of up to 8% of the market cap which has undoubtedly caused a drag on the performance. On some of these stocks I believe that GDXJ held 20% which is the limit for them before they start running into rule books and tax issues. When you have such forced selling there is undoubtedly an impact in the market, and not just on the constituents as those not affected become comparatively overvalued. It can also create a snowballing affect as others front the sellers with sells/shorts of their own. It may also promote takeover activity as larger companies see potential targets at more attractive valuations. So there is inevitably going to be a period of volatility. Ultimately, if you believe in the long term story for gold this will be a buying opportunity. As usual, timing is everything. In terms of SHG, I am not sure how much this has been an impact. My suspicion has been that Odey has been a drag but I confess that I haven't seen the sort of large scale selling that could be indicative of them reducing their position. The current price is very attractive though considering the possibilities over the next few years.

Trades down to a trickle now. It looks like the concert party are continuing to play the game and allow private investors time to lose patience (as they pretty much always do). On the positive side, if there are no sells despite the lack of buying from our friends it may mean that the price has to be forced up to tempt sellers. Not sure why people are selling at this level now when 30p has been clearly flagged as a level the concert party are willing to buy at.

http://interfax.az/view/703461 Total production of gold doré in April amounted to 84.2kg by the looks of it which is 2707 troy ounces. This is down from 106.7kg (3430oz) in March and gives a total production of gold doré for the ytd of 11963oz. That run rate puts them at the low-mid level of their production target for the year from doré (which is 32-42k oz when you take out flotation and Ugur production). If April's production levels were continued for the rest of the year they would hit the lower target level provided Ugur and flotation production provided an additional 20k oz between them. If we use Q1 as a typical example of doré and flotation production, this suggests total gold production for April of about 3250oz and a total ytd of about 14300oz. If that rate is maintained then they would again just make the target provided Ugur delivered. If they maintain the April rate, however, they would just miss the target. Whilst these numbers are again lower than I would have expected, I find it difficult to believe that they would not hit the lower end of their target level for doré and flotation production as they are now processing stockpiles which must be reasonably predictable and, hence, low risk. The greater risk is associated with production from Ugur scheduled for later in the year.

OLI12, I disagree. The reason this is undervalued is the management's inability of unwillingness to do anything! The reason there are no RNSs is the simple fact that they have nothing to report. They take the POLY dividends and pay themselves. Otherwise there is no sign of life. You never know, one day they may shock us and come up with a blindingly brilliant deal. But the likelihood of this is low and the timescales completely obscure. So this is a punt for a minor amount of money in the hope it may do something in the next few years.

Not sure why this would be considered nice. They have borrowed some money. It is at a reasonable rate and is not much considering but you have to think that this would not have been utilised were it not for the delay in refunding the VAT. On that basis it is somewhat irritating.

Oh come on Korg. You know only too well that they, like all gold miners, have been fortunate with the gold price. If gold had fallen I would have said that they had been unfortunate. It's not a judgement on their abilities it is just a fact. Gold is one of the most technically driven markets that I have come across and is generally a playground for traders. Go back a year and a half and the finances of most small gold miners was shocking. If the price had been maintained or even fallen as many were predicting at the time, then a fair few would have been on the verge of collapse. The last year and a half has transformed the financial situation of most of them for the better and they look nothing like they did back then. Paying down debt and moving onto a stronger financial footing was top priority and they have achieved this. Debt is no longer an issue for AAZ as it was in 2015.

Hi guys, I think that there are several reasons for the weakness including the fact that they have $12m in outstanding VAT repayments (and the impact on financials, exploration and Singida). This situation is true for all miners in the country, not just Shanta, and I am pretty confident that it will be repaid. A feeling that gold may not remain in bullish mood may also be a factor. However, I tend to agree that the major issue is the flagged reduced production in the short term as they move underground. On top of the quarterly updates, there is a lot of news to look forwards to: 1. Confirmation of underground operations in Q2 2. Repayment of VAT (!) 3. Exploration results** 4. Nkuluwisi development 5. Singida pilot** ** The timing of these has been hit by the VAT repayment delay Shanta has tended to over achieve on cautious targets and I expect that to continue here. However, the continued delay in the VAT repayment is undoubtedly irritating and the sooner this is resolved the better. $12m will advance exploration and Singida significantly and bring the prospect of a mid tier producer that much closer.

Korg, Of course they would have analysed the options and the new mine is the most likely solution to the grade issues they have been suffering. Clearly they have been doing some planning or they would not have built up such a huge stockpile of ore. But the new mine is itself a risk as anyone who invests in miners knows. But the board needs to deliver this and any delay at all puts at risk the target. I agree that the company has reduced debt greatly but they have been fortunate with the gold price that this has been achieved. If you look back at forecasts they have missed their production targets in recent quarters so a less benign gold price would have hit them. If the gold price continues to move forwards they will be fine but weakness will have an impact as on any gold miner. In the long term I expect gold to be much higher but I could easily see weaker prices in the short term as the world continues to believe that we have a Goldilocks economic recovery, particularly in the US. Unfortunately this has been built on debt and that will come back to bite us. So, for me the long term future for almost any gold miner and (successful) explorer is extremely bright but in the short term there may be some choppy waters here.

Sorry? What is this referring to?

Korg, You are right. I am not buying yet! Once bitten, twice shy I'm afraid and I have lost out on production issues before such that I am a little more cautious these days. As I indicated, I need to see resolution of the production issue and currently it is not here. Achieving the lower level of production requires 8-10k oz from a new ore body that they will not start mining until Q4. Indeed, they will not even have a resource/reserve until Q3. Any delay on this (and let's face it, starting up a new mine is the riskiest part) and they will miss their revised and lowered target. On the positive side, the rest of the production is made up from stockpiles so I would say the risk on that is quite low. Don't get me wrong, I will be buying should the production issues appear to be resolved (and the gold price looks supportive) as I think in the long term there is a lot to go for with this operation. It just hasn't been resolved to my satisfaction yet. If the price is 25p when that happens In the meantime I am happy to avoid the risks associated with the production issues.

Tokenpunter, You only make Beaufort broker for one reason - you can't get money from any other source bar a death spiral company such as YA or Darwin. KDR having the same broker just says the same about them and they don't actually have the greatest record when it comes to placements or progress either, although they do have a couple of advocates on the KDR bulletin board!

Okenia, I must confess, that is the most negative I have ever seen you post! Naturally, I agree with this, even the price of the placing - 10p looks like an obvious price. Normally you would expect 20p warrants these days but I suspect that the people providing the charitable contribution will want quite a lot lower than that. It wouldn't even surprise me to see them at 10p as well to reflect the extreme risk of this being a lot less than 10p in a year's time. CGNR look like they are between a rock and a hard place at the moment. Whilst on the surface the asset is attractive, it has been this way for many years and there doesn't seem to be the capability to progress it. Anyone thinking of buying now should pause and contact Beaufort. It's a real shame to be honest. I am sure that there is something worthwhile here but the BoD are just not the team to do it. Unfortunately it is a cause dear to the Prof's heart and he has a significant stake so I can't see him moving any time soon.

DogTyred, No I don't. Not in the way that you suggested. I am sure that the brokers given the responsibility for buying the concert party shares are using their usual techniques to acquire them but other than that, no. I looked at the trades and I didn't see a 3:1 buy:sell ratio. In fact it looked fairly even to me. Of course, whether the transaction is a buy or a sell is open for discussion as the stock exchange only reports price but there didn't seem to be a preponderance either way. You also have to consider that late reported trades may pop up.

The news from CGNR has always sounded a bit like folklore and legend! But the most significant part of this RNS is the appointment of Beaufort, the worst bucket shop broker around. I don't think that it requires a great leap of understanding to guess what is coming next.

OLI12, I agree that this is highly undervalued. Probably the most undervalued on AIM if you factor in asset risk (very low here compared to most other AIM companies). But as always the problem is realising the value. Directors here are quite happy to reap the year on year rewards. Let's face it they can (and I believe, do) just do nothing all day and get paid a decent whack for doing so. They can probably block any shareholder action. At some point it would make sense for them to realise the value of the assets (when they retire presumably) but that could be years from now or tomorrow. The discount reflects the fact that the market thinks it is more likely years.

Production guidance remains the same as reported previously as far as I can see (64-72k gold equivalent ounces). I am not comfortable with stating the gold equivalent ounces without the gold ounces as this makes comparison to previous years difficult. For context, gold target this year is 52-58k ounces which includes 8-10k ounces from Ugur. I think that this is likely to be conservative but that is all to the good on the basis that it is better to beat conservative targets than underachieve stretch targets. Development of Ugur is good news but we have limited information on this from the latest RNS. It will be good to see the reserve statement in Q3 to set up Q4 production but Ugur is now critical to achieve 2017 targets so it is worth keeping a close watch on this.

CGH is a very strange market it has to be said. Currently you can buy or sell 100k shares without a problem with a 1p spread (20.76/21.83) suggesting that there are both buyers and sellers in the market. Overall the price has been behaving in a very understandable manner (I say 'understandable' rather than 'predictable' as hindsight is a wonderful thing!). A rise based on the director buying, resistance at a round number (20p), a breakout above the resistance and then a back test of the resistance, now support. The support has now held without significant buying from the directors so my best guess is that this support will continue to hold and we should resume an upward trend shortly. Note that this is a 'best guess!'.

DogTyred, I agree that you see such share trading behaviour many times. However, there is no evidence that I have ever seen to say that an accumulator sells some of their shares to force the price lower so that they can buy more. In theory the practice may work if it can trigger sells from others but I have never seen the evidence and suspect that I never will even if it does take place. For a situation like CGH it may well be counterproductive. The trading at Inmarsat looks like 'sell the news' to me. In a company more similar in scale and industry to CGH, we saw exactly the same in ARS when it issued a long awaited PEA. This trading frequently happens on good news items but I see it more in terms of short sighted private investors and traders. The value of the sales in Inmarsat is indicative of this.

DogTyred, Can you point out where this (sell a few at a time to drive the price down then step in and buy a big order) has happened previously as I confess in my 30 years of investing I have heard this many times but nobody has come up with any evidence to support it. The share price stalled at 20p, which was a natural round number to start offloading. OLI12 if you recall offloaded 1m at that point. Compared with previous periods the last few months has seen a positive flood of RNSs. I am not sure what more information you want to see about the resource. The last thing that this company needs to do is drill more to prove up further resources. What we need is advancement towards production (or better still somebody to buy the thing) and financing is key to this. The next major milestone is the completion of the BFS due at the end of H12017.