Member Info for Daisan

I suspect that this is more than likely but the major shareholder is likely to be pivotal in this. They are completely in control and are unlikely to dilute their stake at these levels. It may be that they end up either guaranteeing a debt package or supplying the funds themselves. The latter may be more of a commitment than they would like but they appear to be committed. The last loan was at a rather high interest rate so don't be surprised if any debt deal is expensive. Still, if they can get the money in this should be very positive for the share price, particularly if the gold price continues to support.

And I am sure that you would appreciate it if somebody lumped you together with a group and tarred you all with the same brush. It amazes me that people can't actually think before they post these things.

Dibs61, No straw clutching, just commenting on what is actually happening. Whilst obviously a company seeks to employ the best people, that covers a wide range of capabilities, perhaps most importantly being the ability to fit within the corporate culture. I have employed many people who, on paper, were not quite as good as some others but who had a combination of soft and hard skills that made them more suited to the role. Do you not think that it is right to build capability in the local area to ensure that there is a sustainable work force?

But perhaps the most significant part is the promotion of local staff into senior positions. This is a clear reaction to the actions of the Tanzanian government. Personally I think that this is a very good move - encouraging the adoption of skills like this is always good news for everyone involved and should certainly assist with government relations should things get worse in the country's regulatory framework.

It has become a very binary play now. Anyone putting money in now (and I would call it a punt rather than an investment) will either do extremely well (and I suspect several hundred percent) or very badly (worse case scenario is confiscation and a few years in the international courts). I don't see it sitting around these levels for the long term. The price of gold is helping enormously with the finances to offset the withholding of VAT refunds. A $50 increase in the price of gold, such as we have seen recently, adds $4m to the bottom line over the course of a production year. For Shanta it also means that they can put some decent hedges in place. I am slightly cautious about the latest rise in gold. It has been stimulated by political tension rather than economics and in my experience these things tend not to last unless the tension continues to escalate. As such, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the price of gold quickly reverses despite the obvious current strength.

Strider4, Classic stuff. So if you invest heavily to improve the operation thus incurring a loss, this is bad. And if you lose 80% of your value because Tanzania decide to change the environment, suddenly your debt burden is far too high. I suppose the fact that they are currently generating virtually twice as much cash as the market capitalisation means nothing? This is all about Tanzania currently and investors have panicked. Understandably. But people will start putting in punt money at some point soon. Who knows how this is going to turn out? For the sake of Shanta (and Tanzania) I hope that it is positive.

A good update from the team. The Ugur deposit, which was pretty high risk to get your production on, appears to be coming through well. You suspect that they were very confident of what was there. Good to see that the production could be coming through early as recent updates have been lacking although finances have remained positive. Clearly a team that knows what they are doing.

I agree, this kind of analysis is carried out by ALL of the most sophisticated investors and is the reason why mathematicians have been so highly sought after by financial institutions. Markets such as gold are highly technically driven so to ignore it would be denying yourself a tool. However, I tend to agree that this is less relevant for markets which are less liquid such as AIM shares where small investments can create big moves and is the reason why these shares are so open to manipulation.

That depends on the size of your wallet. It looks like a lot of people are just bailing irrespective of the price. Giving up on Tanzania, who will find it heavy going attracting investment unless a reasonable accord can be reached. The market capitalisation is irrational but as they say, the markets can remain irrational longer than one can remain solvent. An agreement between ACA and the Tanzanian government will go a long way to correcting the situation but currently it is still a gamble.

I believe that this news is a good few years old.

The departure of the CEO sadly makes sense. The current situation within Tanzania has created a great deal of uncertainty. The withholding of VAT has meant that cash is much lower than anticipated and in such an environment a focus on cash is paramount. Hence, the installation of a finance man at the top. I doubt whether you could find anyone that didn't think that Shanta is undervalued at this level. It is ridiculously so with a market capitalisation at less than a year's cash generation. However, until the situation with Tanzania moves to some apparent resolution (and it is doing enormous damage to their reputation as a potential home for international capital), it is impossible at this stage to recommend this as an investment. It is, however, certainly deserving of a 'punt' as it could pay out in a very big way.

Not clear yet whether the Prof. chooses to remunerate the in other ways, e.g. as 'consultants'. The suggested replacements are pretty grim in their own ways but the actions of the board here are pretty atrocious and the whole lot need culling. The nomad needs to earn it's fee and remind the board of its duties or else resign. I suspect that, given the actions of the board even the most disreputable nomad would not touch them if that is the case. I think the most likely outcome here is that the Prof. will realise that the game is up and the new regime will take control. However, there is a small possibility that the company could delist if the Prof. decided to fight dirty (i.e dilution to his chums resulting in resignation of nomad). Next stop KDR?

Well, this can hardly be viewed as anything but positive as it establishes the potential for a mine in a formal manner. There are positives and negatives however. The IRR is very good but the NPV is low which represents the small capex and small asset respectively. At this stage the maximum attributable share value would typically be about 20% NPV. The biggest issue currently is the lack of available information on typical size, quality and colour of the diamonds. This is critical for a diamond operation as the variation in price per carat is enormous. $100 per carat would be way too high for smaller gems and way too low for bigger/coloured gems. So, overall positive but much more to do. I haven't been following this lately but are they planning a bulk sample?

He seems to be trading it. Fascinating!

Agree with quindell here. Those guys are notorious and mostly to be avoided. Dreadful name though, quindell. Mainly associated with dubious business practices!

AA, There are many more reasons for travelling than the food! You will never appreciate the grandeur and history of the likes of Rome and Venice without visiting them. Visiting Rome was one of the highlights of my life (so far) and I suggest that a visit there is a reason to get a passport on its own.

One of those situations where you can make a case for buy, sell and hold! IF (a big 'if') the situation does get resolved reasonably amicably without the whole thing being given away then this is a rampant buy so for the brave there could be a decent return. If it goes downhill from here then these are a sell so the nervous may well want to sell/stay clear. I am in the 'hold' camp currently and waiting to see what happens. I haven't got a fortune riding on it (a lot less than I used to!) and can take the hit if things turn out badly but I am unwilling to commit more funds even at this low level.

Someone dumped 1m this morning which, given the illiquid nature here, was enough to shift the price.

Well, there are many things to criticise JW and AGQ and the delay in coming back with the results of extracting the metal from the tailings project is one. However, 'years' is an exaggeration. It also did not own it. The whole purpose of the tests was to establish that the metal was capable of being economically extracted which it wasn't. Tailings projects are, indeed, easy to get at but they are not necessarily easy to extract metal commercially. If it was so easy then the owners would be doing it themselves. For all AGQ's faults, and they are legion, they actually did get a project up and running. The fact that they lost it due to poor financial arrangements and operations is something that they can be criticised for (and have been ad nauseam) but they must also be given some credit for getting it to production in the first place. Of far more relevance to criticise JW is the recent placings which have been quite astonishingly poorly done. But this, too, has been done to death. It is distinctly possible that the lithium stuff will go nowhere but let's see what the drill results are if they ever start. The share price is hardly demanding (hell, at one point NYO was a similar market cap. and that literally has nothing at all).

Never bought into this 'holding back' agenda. I suspect that you will see late trades at some point. Remember that the placing was via the worst broker on the market and all of those shares will be dumped. Certainly one of the worst placings I have seen.