Member Info for Daisan

What is going on?

Just picked up another 200k. Will wait to see further political progress before adding.

Published trades of only �4k which seems a little on the light side to stimulate such a rise. Presumably there is a delayed trade waiting to be published. Positive move though.

A potential resolution shifts things significantly here. All the great production news and future deleveraging on the back of reduced capex meant nothing whilst the threat of government sanction hung over the company. If this can be resolved, and the news items look positive, then the way is clear for a significant re-rate as I can't believe that any agreement can justify the 80% drop we have seen here. I have just bought a few, although I was unable to do so until the price had drifted up and could only get a few unfortunately. Now impossible to buy more than 15k shares at 3.5p.

Yes, consider that they have spent another $9.5m on capex, $3m on severance and another $1.8m on VAT not recovered (now standing at approx. $16m), they have done pretty well to stabilise net debt despite production coming in at below the targeted run rate. By my calculations, should the capex reduce to sustaining levels, the production balance at about 20k oz per quarter and the gold prices remain stable, they should be generating about $10m cash per quarter. However, this is all secondary to what remains a challenging environment to do business in currently. The lack of clarity on the future regulatory framework is what is suppressing the share price, not the operational position.

Normally I would be looking at this situation as an opportunity to buy into a company cheaply on the back of a distressed seller. However, it is difficult to think of many reasons to buy in here given the length of time it has been on the market with very little activity and a massive overhang of stock to be shifted. At some point this will inevitably provide value for at least a bounce but there has been an incredible amount of damage done now and even the most ardent supporter is surely only looking at a continued drop in the share price in the short, medium and long terms. Unless, of course, the BoD actually does start to do something off the back of the recent gm.

I don't think so. It was a genuine attempt to change things I believe. And Gonella hasn't necessarily sold yet - just gone under the notifiable level. I suspect that he still has a fair number to sell so no rest yet. And O'Sullivan still has a huge number to dump if he is going to.

Actually, as little sympathy as I have for the BoDs here we don't know that they are being investigated. As far as I am aware this is coming from SP and TW is far from a reliable source. That said, goings on here have been pretty shoddy and it looks like the share price could be under pressure for some time. Interestingly it seems to come at the end of a day so that is something for holders to look forward to every day!

Actually net debt decreased by $3.8m rather than $5m but the principle remains. They haven't quite paid that much down this quarter as they have kept some cash on hand. Whether this is due to timing of the report or they have elected to keep more cash available I don't know. It would be cautious to do so at this stage but they have tended to run a pretty tight ship which, I suppose, when you have a wealthy and supportive chairman is understandable!

Numbers are out and the financials look good. Gold production still pretty low but improving now that Ugur is producing. Dubious gold equivalent numbers look like they will hit in the middle of the target range. All in all, I suspect that people will be happy without being ecstatic. Q4 should look better in terms of gold production.

Shanta, a gold producer of 80k+ oz per year, now has about the same market capitalisation as GGP, which has no defined resource. In fact, it hasn't even drilled yet on the property that is making people so excited.

Not sure that the timing means very much and if it precedes a bad quarterly update, which I have no real reason to expect, then that would be an obvious case of insider dealing. Oh, I forgot. This is AIM and nobody cares. Let's face it, it doesn't need a bad quarterly to sell as the elephant in the room is still Tanzania and that is just an ongoing issue. VAT being withheld should be up to about $16m by now. Shame.

Not sure how much he will make it he is completely selling. Only sold less than 10% so far and the share price has fallen 20%. If he and his supporters all sell it will be a bloodbath.

Share price is going to crater if O'Sullivan is selling down

I was looking at this off and on today and was somewhat amazed that the share price was holding up given the result of the gm last week. And then it suddenly started to crack this afternoon on still rather light volume. It will be interesting to see where it comes to rest and whether the 'rebels' have another crack. Shoddy performance from the BoDs I have to say.

What's unlucky?

ODONNELL, You seem to have gone from a 'weak buy' to a 'strong sell' in the space of two minutes. Do you have any other personalities hiding in there?

I certainly do not think that 'gold is going bust' or 'Aaz is also going bust'. I do think that there is a real chance that gold is going to decline in the short term and that this may well negatively impact gold miners but the medium-long term outlook remains very bullish from both a gold and miners perspective. I believe that I was open when I sold my AAZ holding and the reasons for doing so. Those reasons still hold for now and until I see evidence to the contrary I am unwilling to buy back in at these prices. It may be that the evidence is forthcoming in the upcoming quarterlies in which case I may well buy back in. If that is higher than I sold at, which is possible given that I sold at around this level, then that is also fine as at least I was out at a point in time when I was uncomfortable remaining in.

'Alfie'! Stupid spell checker! I meant 'Altus' of course.

Decent results. I confess that I haven't come across Alfie before so was expecting a market capitalisation in the region of �1-2m so was somewhat surprised to find �9-10m! Given the stage of development of the assets (i.e. very early pre-drill) and the fact that they only raised �1.1m, it is difficult to justify such a high rating despite the obvious credentials of the people involved. However, if they keep getting these type of results then the property could well be attractive to a partner. They would have to give a substantial amount away though if they want somebody else to pay for all the drilling and feasibility work.