Member Info for Daisan

Round numbers always create a barrier, particularly after a significant rise but I am pretty sure that this will come to a head pretty soon now. The additional 3.5m shares to be purchased by the concert party in the next 3 months will add upward pressure and the news seems to be getting better. Add in a supportive gold environment and there seem to be sufficient reasons to break the overhead resistance.

Well, not quite a drop in the ocean but certainly not the majority of the funding required. They seem to be able to raise the funds now which is the key to realising the value. Corporate governance is pretty limited on AIM at the best of times so I tend to agree it is a bit of a concern here. However, I would rather the person in control have 45% of the company than nothing. The latter would just suck the life out of the company whereas the former is more likely to want to buy it and the company articles define the way in which that can be done.

This is excellent news and the project seems to be moving forwards (somewhat unexpectedly) quickly! The 3.5m shares for the concert party is just an extension of the previous time period. They represent the number of shares that they couldn't get their hands on in the time period. Personally I would have told them to take a running jump but with one of them being the chairman I suppose that this was always unlikely z particularly when it CEO realises that you don't bite the hand that feeds you. The concert party participation has got to be close to the limit they can do. Any more and they will flip over 50% and that will be the end. On the other hand, the 30p conversion price puts down another marker and conversion at that price will define the minimum level of any bid that the concert party can make.

sparkyboy1, Nobody is going to criticise you for this! It is your business and nobody else's what you do with your/her holdings. Let's hope the current girlfriend lasts!

We should get Q1 production numbers this week, probably Thursday but could be Wednesday. We know that January and February will disappoint in terms of gold production so all eyes will be on the March numbers and copper production plus a statement confirming what actions have been taken to overcome the problem and the impact this is having. Overall I am expecting numbers to come in significantly below Q1 2016. Also released with the update should be the target production for the year. To be frank, they haven't been that great about this. To recap last year: Update Forecast (koz) Q1 73-77 Q2 73-77 12 Sep (Interims) 69-71 Q3 69-71 30 Nov 67-69 Q4/FY15 65.4 This is reflective of the production issues they have been having but these are now known. Unless they have genuinely solved them, I would hope that they would err on the side of caution on the basis that, when it comes to mining, it is better to exceed a lower target than fail to hit a higher one. Actually, irrespective of whether they have solved the problems they should remain cautious for this year until a period of hit targets reassures the market that they are back on track. Of course, gold miner's performance is a combination of production and gold price so a solid rise for gold will shift sentiment in itself. It would, however, be very positive if production could get back on track.

With volume over the daily average in the first hour and three quarters. 21p paid according to Google. Certainly looks like it is testing the waters for a break out.

Anyone wondering what the sharp drop today was about need look no further than an article by somebody called 'Evil Banksta' (a nom de plume that says it all) on Share Prophets who is suggesting that the company should be valued a tenth of the current price. The pieces on that website tend to be of variable quality and I have no idea about this guy's credentials but I suspect that it is no coincidence that the share price dropped at the time it was released. For clarity, I disagree with his premise!

If this does break above 21p I would like to see it on significantly higher volumes - say 2-3+m shares rather than the 550k share so far today. That would put volume on a par with the sharp movement higher (the pole of the pennant) and would indicate a shift in sentiment rather than just buying of the concert party. At that point I can see the share price moving to the high 20s or even 30p in a reasonably short term although there is always the possibility of a back test of the 20-21p zone before moving higher (or even breaking down which would be disappointing!).

And now 20.5p has been paid. Interesting how there is sudden activity on AIM shares!

Well, just got a bit more interesting. A decent sized trade (£50k) just gone through at full ask. Looking again at the technicals, this still strongly suggests an ascending triangle/pennant formation (I would have said the latter were it not for the duration). Whichever, it should resolve itself pretty soon and a close above 20.5-21ish (looks closer to the lower point) would be very positive.

It's curious but sentiment seems generally poor amongst gold stocks despite the relative strength of gold. Perhaps investors don't believe that the gold price will hold so are selling down the stocks ahead of this. I don't see anything specific to Shanta as the news has been pretty decent here. The next couple of quarters will see production at lower levels owing to the planned shift underground. This has been well flagged but AIM investors are often reactive.

For any technical analysts, this is looking like an ascending triangle, a bullish continuation pattern (given that we had a strong uptrend before). These things are never perfect but, even so, this looks like a reasonable interpretation. Should it prove to be the case then a target of between 25 and 30p would seem reasonable.

Agreed zanthrus. But we may have to do some deducing as they don't tend to break the quarterly production figures down by month and we know that Jan/Feb are going to be disappointing. Should be able to make some deductions based on the monthly (elsewhere) published figures for gold production. Copper should be more straightforward as we are simply looking for evidence of an increase. Whether this will be 'severe' I doubt as Q1 is unlikely to be the quarter to demonstrate this. Overall Q1 is very likely to disappoint. The question is whether the evidence is there to suggest they are turning the corner on grade and how sympathetic the market is going to be (and how much this is already known and priced in based on the monthly news items!).

Unfortunately the news has not been all that great lately. Although the purchase of Sergeevskoe is continuing, the terms have been altered to account for the fact that the deal to buy Karchiga has fallen through, owing to the fact that the purchaser could not raise the funds. This is quite a setback and has hit the price. I believe that the share price would be higher than C$0.05 if the deal had gone through and it would have been very cheap at that price for a company with a 2m oz gold deposit right next door to producing infrastructure and with the money to prove up the deposit. As it is they are in limbo now and it is unlikely that the share price will make progress until there is more clarity regarding the situation of Karchiga.

Interesting to note the sell down today. This just goes to show that, however much you flag the fact that results will be disappointing in the short term, the market tends to sell down the actuality. I am not sure that there is much in the report that was not as expected although the lack of detail around the cash position in light of the $15m capital expenditure this year and $20m next may be one area for the market to focus on. What we do know from this is that they are targeting a 40-45k oz per annum RUN RATE during 2017. So, on the basis of worst case scenario whilst hitting the target, let's go for 3.5k in December 2017. Looks promising in terms of delivering the stipulated 100k oz production in 2019. At that point we should have a very profitable mine with a very long mine life (considering the reserves of 2m oz) and opportunity to increase should it be deemed value accretive (considering the resources of 5m oz). The situation has changed substantially over the last 12 months or so. On this basis, the final results at the end of April should be interesting reading, particularly the cash position.

Interesting snippet from SP Angel this morning. I particularly like their use of the word 'Ineptocracy'! http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/sp-angel/27456/today-s-market-view-bushveld-minerals-limited-diamondcorp-plc-bluejay-mining-plc-metminco-ltd-27456.html

Sadly it looks like we are coming to the end of the road. It didn't have to be like this unfortunately but a combination of insufficient funding headroom (for very good reasons but still a mistake) and just sheer misfortune have resulted in what looks like adminstration for DCP barring a miracle (unless the leadership are tremendously good at bluffing). The history of this should form the basis for a Lemony Snicket novel. You have to suspect that somebody will now come in and pick up a cheap asset with nothing left for shareholders.

It looks like the narrative is changing and the attention should turn towards the real potential for actually doing something with the deposit. At the very least the actions over the last few months have stimulated some activity. No coincidence that this was announced now.

Exeter Resources/Goldcorp is a fascinating one. Caspiche has always been an optionality play on gold as the grade is ultra low but the deposit is huge (about 6 times as big as CGH). The price agreed reflects the low grade as that is not much money for an awful lot of gold. It shows a tremendous confidence in the price of gold by Goldcorp. It is certainly what I expect to happen here but the critical question is when? AIM investors have very limited horizons a so a significant wait could see this drift.

Visitor, Good calls. Shanta would make an excellent fit but I do think it needs to get the resource up a bit and bring Singida online before that is likely to happen. If they had any sense they would go for it now but the fact is that major corporates rarely have much sense and tend to invest at the top of markets.