Member Info for Daisan

I must say that I can't remember looking forward to a resource upgrade as much as this one for a long time! I just hope that it does come in before 31/1 as the wait will be frustrating.

You only need to go on Twitter to see where N4P is being ramped.

Actually SP says that the statements were wrong rather than the calculation. It could merely be that he took part in the placing but also bought in the open market. That may equate to �220k but would not be all in the placing, hence the statement would be incorrect.

Ha! I was just pointing out the potential scenario rather than offering any advice but not a bad call.

Looks like a spreadbet rollover to me rather than two separate buys.

Since we are getting close to the point at which the revised Tulkubash resource is released (due by end January), I thought I would have another look at the resources. There are some points outlined in the current resource statements and recent RNSs that suggest that this will be a key upgrade. - The current oxide (Tulkubash) resource is 20.9Mt at 1.35g/t Au for 912koz - The current refractory sulphide (Kyzyltash) resource is 62.1Mt at 3.07g/t Au for 6,131koz - Drill results have included excellent intercepts including 94.6m at 1.34g/t Au from 1.5m - Additional mineralisation has been identified within the current Tulkubash pit design area - Mineralisation extends from the current Tulkubash pit design to connect with other drilled areas (satellite pits) to increase pit length from approximately 1,100 to 2,200 metres - Mineralisation open to the northeast with indications of continuity for at least three kilometres - Mineralised wireframes exhibit remarkable continuity along strike - mineralisation is open to the north east - The Tulkubash Zone..... has been traced for a distance of 10 kilometres to the Ishakuldy area to the northeast - The Tulkubash Zone strikes parallel to the Kyzyltash Zone Now, let's just consider that the current Tulkubash pit design has a length of 1100m and they have already stated that this can be doubled with clear indications of continuity of strike for 3km. But consider further that this has been traced for 10kms. This is 9 times the length of the current pit design. I will openly state that the limits of the current resource are unclear to me so I can't simply state that we should be looking for double the current oxide resource in this revised estimate but the possibility exists. I do think that it is plausible to suggest that whatever number we do get here we have the potential to increase by at least 50% or substantially more (this is based on the fact that the suggested extension to 3kms is clearly NOT included in the current resource). Even more of an eye opener is that this zone runs parallel to the sulphide zone, so it wouldn't be a wildly insupportable argument to suggest that whatever factor this resource statement increases the oxide resource by could potentially also be applied to the sulphide zone. So, when it comes to the resource, I am particularly looking for a total figure for the Tulkubash zone of 1.3m oz as this uplift could well imply a total resource of at least 10m oz with all that implies in terms of alerts flashing amongst the majors. But whilst I am in the mood for wild speculation (:-)), there is the clear potential to extend whatever is reported in this upgrade significantly. I would suggest that a factor of '5' might well be the upper limit though!

I did like the 'solid cash' bit though. Made me chuckle. It's probably 'solid' because it is composed of coins now, the notes having been spent.

It's normal trading! :-)

Whilst it has no relevance to ARS at all, cryptos have divided thinking like nothing I have seen for a while. It's a traders plaything currently.

A very good update with net debt decreasing amidst a rising production profile. I will even overlook that they missed full year guidance for the first time that I can recall. Based on this there is plenty to be optimistic about for 2018, assuming that the gold price and Tanzania are benign. Given the guidance for 2018, it is possible that each quarter's production could be better than Q4 2017 and there are suggestions in the RNS that allude to this, namely "During this period the number of stopes available for production increased to two and is planned to increase to three on a stable basis, further improving production flexibility". They are going to be able to produce more consistently based on this and perhaps they will start breaking daily production records on a consistent basis (which stands at 510oz in December). I suspect that they will return to beating their production targets. Given a constant gold price, it is clear what impact this would have on debt, hence the reason that they are going to put in place a dividend policy. All good stuff. I expect 2018 to be very positive for gold and, hence, Shanta with this likely to be one of the better performing gold miners.

I certainly do think that they would approve a funding package at less than 3p yes. You have to remember that the funding requirement is not huge as there should be a significant proportion of debt. If this purchase shifts the price significantly then the resultant reduced dilution is probably worth it to them as well as the fact that it has lifted the share price anyway. Consider that their �3m spent (�2m more than the market valued it) has currently given them a paper value uplift of �8.5m on their pre-purchase stake! So not bad business you would have to say. There is something playing out in the background and as they are majority shareholders they can pretty much do what they like. I confess that I don't understand why they have not financed/taken this over completely. Seems like a sensible thing to do to me. But a similar situation exists now at CGH so not unique. Don't get me wrong, I think that Altyn was well undervalued at 0.9p (and still is) and its operations when fully up to speed should demand a much higher market capitalisation. Not a great fan of these premium purchases though (which we have seen before on AIM companies).

I'm assuming that people understand that the entity that bought the shares already owned over 60% of the company. So the situation is not quite as straightforward as a company wanting to buy into Altyn and is willing to pay a large premium. I think that we will only have clarity on this when the company releases the nature of the financing package.

I wouldn't read too much into it. I suspect that African Resources were looking at more dilution than they would like with the share price below 1p so spend a bit to boost the price and place at x.xp could be a cost effective solution for them. The key point is what is x.yp? I presume they need to attract additional institutional support otherwise I am not completely sure why they just don't finance the operational requirements themselves. Indeed, I am not sure why they haven't taken it private!

Fantastic timing with this post O&W!

But you can't buy over 100m shares for that. Not sure that there is a catch but there is method in their madness. It is probably designed to boost the share price ahead of an equity element of fund raising. I confess that having one shareholder with a 60% holding makes me nervous. Now that it is over 66% I am no less nervous. However, should the company have to abide by takeover codes (not sure about the incorporation of this one but not all AIM companies are straightforward), then 3p would be the minimum that they could offer.

Today. A small amount of buying has pushed the ask up. It could be that the sellers are exhausted. Judging by the posts on here this may well have reached some form of turning point. The key point will be whether it can sustain a rise or whether it merely attracts further selling. Break above 0.27 or so and this could break out from the descending channel provided it is on volume and sustained. At the moment the volume does not suggest s strong I've but this is AIM and can change at the drop of a hat.

Hmmm. Not sure I agree with all of that explanation Olderandwiser. I am expecting production to certainly be higher than 66k oz once the move to underground has been completed and the necessary equipment has been sourced. Your final point is, I believe, the real problem currently - the financing. I think that is weighing heavily on the share price. AIM is very sensitive to funding and the prospect of placings and a delay such as has taken place here is taking its toll. We need to see the mix of the funding to assess how appropriate it is. A reasonable solution will result in this re-rating significantly although I suspect that this is largely off most investors radars so there may well be time to jump on board should news prove to be good. No need to rush essentially.

I assume that you realise that Beutong has been drilled in the past and has a defined resource, a fifth of which is in the measured and indicted categories. The next drilling will be in fill and expansion drilling, particularly on the skarn, and to depth (really need to understand how deep this goes and whether the grade improves to be able to see whether this really is a Wafi Golpu in terms of size as well as structure).

It is not actually possible for Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency to be the 'new gold's for the simple reason that it is not a physical asset. Gold is a store of value for when there is a crisis however severe that might be. If the power goes off gold stored value whereas cryptocurrencies disappear. As such, I do not see gold losing its role as a store of value. Interestingly Bitcoin can now be traded on the futures market. If it is anything like gold, most trading will be done in this way in the future particularly as settlement in Bitcoin is so problematic. If such a thing does take place then it is likely that the pricing of Bitcoin will be subject to control by the usual suspects. Personally I expect that cryptocurrencies are likely to be the way of the future. However, I don't expect it to be any of the ones currently in existence. Whilst I don't expect it to be LION's offering either, it does at least offer a potential template. I do, however, expect there to be considerably more state control than there is currently in Bitcoin et al (although with the introduction of futures trading there is likely to be de facto central control anyway).

RetiredBanker, AIM is far from efficient, probably because it usually lives in an information vacuum for most of the companies. Just some profit taking so I wouldn't get too vexed. I tend to look at cash generation anyway rather than profit for these companies. Nothing says how well a company is doing as the cash/debt position.