Member Info for Daisan

sparkyboy1, Apologies for the delay in responding - I have been doing a bit of digging. I assume by now that you have put two and two together over the Kumtor mine. Given the size of it, this constitutes a RTO for AIM and, as such, has resulted in the shares being suspended. CGH will have to submit an admission document before trading can recommence. This is one of those good suspensions though so nothing to fear. Unfortunately you will not be able to get at your money for some time though.

gorsuch, This is a proposed takeover in conjunction with the Kyrgyzstan government. What levers do you suppose they could use to persuade Centerra to go with the deal? Would you like to reconsider whether these permits should be renewed before they agree a price?

My God! That is beyond ambitious!

There is copper, gold, zinc, lead, silver and even the potential for diamonds but I don't recall any Palladium or, indeed, other Platinum group metals. Why?

It is quite exciting to be honest. The conference call marked a watershed change from single or body exploitation to regional hub looking for acquisition targets. I suspect that the currency for this acquisition is more likely to be shares than debt unless they are buying a producing asset where they can leverage the balance sheet effectively. If shares are issued we have the age old problem of a potential overhang from a shareholder who just wants the cash irrespective of market capitalisation. I look forward to what the first acquisition looks like but if it is a significant producing asset that can be bought for a song then that could be transformational as we would then be able to leverage that for the development of the existing ore body and for further acquisitions. Chaarat have become an even more attractive proposition.

Having listened to the call and read the presentation, the suggestion is that the Q1 number was always going to be somewhat weak as they lay the foundations ('de-risk' as they refer to it) for production over the rest of the year. The indication is that the plant is currently operating at a 90k oz per annum run rate which would put production over the year in the middle of the guidance. I will still hold out hope for one of those 25k oz quarters which would generate huge amounts of cash. With debt repayments due next year, we will need the cash available. By my calculations this shouldn't be a problem provided they hit target and the gold price remains supportive.

Slightly disappointed by the headline production number but please by the reduction in net debt despite the fact that this is likely to have been the weakest quarter. They have reiterated the target range as 82-88k oz for the year which works out as an average of over 21k oz per quarter for the rest of the year. I am certain that we will have a quarter of 22k oz. That additional 4k oz pretty much goes straight to the bottom line so would be an additional $5m cash generation/debt reduction in a quarter. Throw in the potential for a 25k oz quarter which they have done a couple of times and that would be an additional $9m in a quarter. Just hitting the lower target at current prices would leave net debt at lower than VAT owed. In 2019 I expect this to be a cash generating machine.

Looking at the last 4 reports, they have pretty much been about now and 3 of the 4 were on a Thursday. The other was on a Wednesday. All of which suggests to me that we will get it tomorrow. Here's to a good one!

I read the article yesterday and the translation was somewhat ambiguous. The likeliest interpretation was that the output would fall substantially (they were suggesting 40% lower volumes in 2019) and that there was a question mark over the mining licences, which would not be a surprise considering the controversy over the mining operation). Whatever the truth, there seems little doubt that output will be severely impacted.

The DFS for BKM is due in Q2, probably June. There is a resource statement due end April/beginning of May (I suspect more likely the latter) which should be interesting. Of course, in the meantime, there are drill results due from KSK and Beutong plus move to 80% ownership at Beutong.

I have to agree with your view here pablo2. This does look like a team that are going to execute on a clear strategy. The quality of the board is the sort that you find associated with a much larger organisation and they are clearly intent on taking it there.

Pablo2, I don't think that the suggestion was to buy HGM but rather the Unkurtash deposit in Kyrgyzstan. This is the sort of resource opportunity that I am sure CGH would look for (3.7m oz, open pit) and HGM, according to news from 2017, are looking for a partner to develop it (clearly I was wrong about them not wanting to sell - this indicates that they are at least willing to sell some). However, I suspect that this is not advanced enough for CGH as they have indicated that they are looking for production or near production.

I did think about HGM but I suspect that they are not interested in selling. I have no idea what CGH have in mind but look forward to finding out. Personally it is not an area of the world that I would particularly like to go on either a personal or business level but given that the area has numerous gold deposits, I suspect that they won't be limited by options.

It was also telling that the new director, Artem Volynets, was on the call considering he has just come on board. An indication of how significant M&A is going to be in the future.

Interestingly, this point was raised. The answer was intriguing. They actually feel that they are well positioned on this as both the Chinese and Russians are disliked by the local population and their facilities have tended to be targeted.

As anticipated, I struggled with the timing so only caught the last 10 minutes. Hopefully they will post a link to the whole thing so that I can listen later. It lasted for over 50 minutes and there seemed to be quite a bit of interest. What I did hear covered why only 4 years of mine life anticipated currently on Tulkubash - this is due to the reserves currently defined. The gold price is too low to convert some of the current resource to reserve. However, they are extremely confident that the resource and reserves can be significantly upgraded along strike (I think that they have every right to be) and this is where the mine life will come from (hence the aggressive planned drilling campaign). In addition there was considerable interest in the M&A stuff (unsurprisingly). However, despite the fact that there are 'advanced negotiations' they can't reveal these currently. The reason, obviously, is that a deal is not a deal until it is done and revealing the deal now could jeopardise progress. I agree and I am prepared to give the current team some credit until they lose it. Not much commonality between the sulphide and oxide resource so the bulk of the capital spend to bring the sulphide operation into play will be on specific plant, although infrastructure and some buildings are obviously common to both operations. Whilst I would like to listen to the whole podcast, I am beginning to think that the oxide will be brought into production but the sulphide will just be grown as a resource whilst focus shifts to new targets. You can imagine that a sulphide resource growing from 5 to 10 to 15m oz, etc. will become a more and more attractive proposition for a major whilst underpinning a share price that can be used from a position of strength to gobble up attractive, near production assets that require less capex to bring through. That is my speculation rather than their statements but it could have some merit!

Excellent figures.

I have just read the presentation. I thought I would look at it when I got around to it as I assumed that it would just expand on what was stated in the RNS. Whilst that is true it is oh so much more. Of particular significance is the M&A stuff. To say that they are ambitious is an understatement. They clearly see Chaarat as a vehicle for building a significant gold producer. A couple of bits: - Target product 1m oz per annum - Target reserves (note 'reserves' not 'resources') 15-20m Oz - M&A - 10 deals in evaluation, 3 under detailed review, 2 in advanced negotiations Clearly the last of these is fundamental to achieving the first two. This is well beyond what I expected of the company and shines a spotlight on the team. Speaking of this, I have just been looking at their CVs and impressive doesn't cover it. This is a very serious team indeed and precisely the right team to chase up this strategy. I think that there may well be explosive news over the course of the year.

I have registered and will try to listen although I might struggle with the timing. I will post anything interesting should I be able to listen in.

I agree that most of these mines never make it to production. However, that is the precise reason why you tend to run with those that you feel have a better chance of doing so. The team here has past experience of doing that so the risks, whilst still evident, are reduced and hence the potential for delivery is greater. I am well aware of Churchill Mining. As to the costs, we will soon have a much better handle on this in the DFS but the PEA estimated this at $163.8m. I would expect the majority of this will be through debt but there will also be an equity element.