RE: Mokopane4 May 2018 10:03
This has been mentioned previously as a concern for VRFB adoption. Whilst leasing can offset Vanadium price rises to some extent, there is no doubt that the volatility of the price and potential for significant appreciation will potentially rent the growth of VRFBs. However, in terms of niobium usage, this clearly isn't as simple as replace X with Y as it requires some plant changes.
I believe that FM suggested sustained prices above $100/kg would be an issue so we are not quite there yet and this figure, given the nature of Vanadium trading, would present substantial resistance.
I keep coming back to Fangchenggang. This is specifically focused on VRFBs and has an ultimate annual production capacity utilising 250k tonnes of Vanadium. This is 3 times the current global production of Vanadium. Considering that China have specified (dictated) VRFB adoption and China is the largest producer, you would think that there is some method to this madness. I stand by my assertion that VRFB consumption of Vanadium will be a lot higher than anticipated and I think that it will take a sustained price spike (oxymoron?) to derail this.
That said, I would rather not test the commitment to VRFBs too greatly with massive price rises, even though this would be of significant benefit to BMN in the short to medium term.