Member Info for Daikihaku1

That’ll be a firm thanks but no thanks to a $2 TO from me. This is so much bigger than that and I don’t want to look back 10 years later having sold my ticket to the opening of may turn into the next North Sea oil story for a quick buck. Each to their own ofcourse, but we have barely scratched the surface here, and when we finally the cross the hurdles to FID - one that has been so long and frustrating for some of us, we are not just sanctioning sealion but opening a new oil frontier. I intend to be a part of that and while I may not get my wish if RKH is indeed bought out early, I am not planing on giving them up voluntarily!

As for the oil price dropping currently, remember what the cure to low oil prices is low oil prices. It will swing the other way at some point, and hopefully well before we start selling Sealion crude 🙂

Have a good weekend all

You get under everyone’s skin buddy

Woodcroft, unless you have been around on this board, and before that iii, since 2010, you cannot possibly understand the reasons for the reactions he/she/it gets here. There is a looooong history and Garbled, while much more subdued these days, has brought it onto himself IMHO DYOR bl.a. bl.a. bl.a.

He have sold, that why he suddenly have all these concerns 😁 as soon as he buys back they will vanish as usual

Ovets, thanks a lot for the correction. I had indeed forgotten about the 20% we recieve on anything over a given amount. I have lost track of what it potentially amounts to at this point, but I’ll maintain that it is no longer the significant factor to RKH it was before the award was sold off. I’m sure Sam got us the best possible deal, but I would have liked us to keep a bigger share of the interest accumulation, to offset the frustration of ICSID’s glacial pace

Ovets :

“ And of course, all the while, interest on the award continues to accrue, assuming it isn’t annulled.”

Fat lot of good that does us now that we have put a cap on our award by selling it on. That would have been a consoling factor prior to selling it but not now if I understand it correctly

Alma thanks a lot for that explanation. I had no idea it was the EU that is the “non-disputing party”. I’m not sure that’ll make me sleep better though 😝

Spacehoppa,

I’m not going to pretend I fully understand what this is about :

“A non-disputing party files an application to file a written submission pursuant to ICSID Arbitration Rule 37(2).”

But if a non-disputing party can file an application and thereby delay the closure, then does that mean we can expect to have the Italian Association for the Protection of Useless Gestures or the Agency for the Dramatization of normal Situations file submissions next…??

If anyone and his dog can file and delay, then trust the Italians to ensure we are all dead and buried before this farce is concluded… can anyone put my worries at ease please…?

You will probably have a pretty miserable morning tomorrow. Today was proof - again - that things currently change so quickly your head will spin. I sold off some US stocks yesterday to reduce my exposure a bit and promptly the orange to$$er puts a 90 pause on tarifs sending some of the shares I sold up by 20%. It’s a completely lottery right now and I have decided that I will sit on my hands and remember Warren buffets words : price is what you pay, value is what you get.

As stated here before, my RKH shares are not for sale this side of first oil come what may! Oil price may crash, but as we all know it will come back stronger eventually cause civilisation can’t live without it. If it can drop massively in a few short days, you better believe it can go up just as fast, when the pendulum swings the other way. Hold the faith folks it’s happening and while navitas may bring in slightly less profits on their first few shipments of oil from Golf of Mexico, they may offset that somewhat by negotiating lower rig/fpso rates and whatnot should other marginal oil projects be put on hold due to the current uncertainty.

Here is to a solid green day tomorrow

Thanks Ovets, appreciate it

Was the date the OM case was registered with ICSID. In just over a month the lawyers can celebrate 8 year anniversary. How’s that for a gravy train??

While I was pondering just how grotesque it is that justice can be delayed this way i started wondering whether there is any possible way for Italy to kick the can further down the road a after we finally get the decision on the annulment hearing we are currently waiting for?? Have they exhausted all avenues to delay this further and if so, does anyone know if our insurance sum will be paid promptly after the decision or do we then have to wait for the insurer to start the legal process of recovering assets from Italy before we get paid?

Same here mate. For 10 years the pattern has been the opposite. While everything else was going up, we kept dropping. It is so satisfying to see that in reverse

This is holding up remarkably well considering the carnage out there. A 20% drop on the back of a very rapid 3-400% rise ain’t much given current market panic. We are up 13% compared to a month ago, whereas my Meta shares are down 21%.

Rockhopper as the new safe haven anyone??😁

I don’t know bout 38£ a share, but I do know that when RKH is producing oil, it’s true value will be reflected in the share price and all the remaining basin wide opportunities will start to be priced in as well and £1,50. Pr share will be a distant memory. It’s easy to lose sight of the just how big deal this is in the exitement of a share price that has finally turned a decade long downtrend around. I do not intend to sell this too early s I have done with other shares in the past

From chat GBT :

“ Tullow Oil’s decline from its all-time high can be attributed to several key factors:

1. Oil Price Volatility – Tullow Oil is heavily reliant on high crude oil prices. The oil price crash in 2014-2016 and the COVID-19-induced slump in 2020 significantly impacted its revenues.

2. High Debt Levels – Tullow has carried a large debt burden for years, which has been a major concern for investors. The need to restructure debt and sell assets has weighed on the stock.

3. Operational Issues & Production Declines – The company has faced technical challenges in its key production areas, particularly in Ghana, which led to reduced output and missed production targets.

4. Exploration Disappointments – Some of Tullow’s exploration projects, especially in Africa, failed to deliver the expected returns, leading to write-offs and reduced investor confidence.

5. Management Changes & Strategy Shifts – Frequent changes in leadership and strategic pivots, including asset sales and restructuring, have created uncertainty about the company’s long-term direction.

6. Dividend Suspension – In 2019, Tullow suspended its dividend, signaling financial struggles and discouraging income-focused investors.

7. Market Sentiment & Competition – The broader shift towards renewable energy and ESG concerns have led investors to reduce exposure to smaller, high-risk oil companies like Tullow.”

Brilliant stuff Spacehoppa. Much appreciated mate 🙏

Thanks spacehoppa, much appreciated 🙏

Roughly when RKH can be expected to become debt free after first oil?

Assuming:

Capex as projected

Flow rates as projected

35% tax deduction on $700mio

30mio payout from OM

Financed by Navitas

Oil price unchanged

Would love to hear a qualified guess as I am finding it a bit confusing.

D

Well you are in good company then Mogger. Most of us here know a thing or two about waiting for something to happen 😂

Another benefit of having a new partner come in, would be that it would remove any uncertainty of the current market value of RKH’s 35% ownership at this stage in the development. I suspect it would be a good deal higher than todays market cap of 230 mio and would result in an immediate rerate IMO