Member Info for dadean

Sometimes i get a headache thinking of how sirius could be valued, it's easy enough of sirius's projections, but it takes me into territory i am unfamiliar with, companies with obscenely large operating margins. They just look a bit strange to me, for example revenue of 1.15Billion, profit of 0.75 billion , market cap of say 6 billion. these type of numbers for a miner are hard to follow! but there are a few out there (disclaimer i know none of these companies are similar to sirius) for example indus gas Revenue of 50M market cap of 500M approx or Serica Energy. These high margin businesses, if ours proves to be are quite interesting beasts financially......

Sometimes i get a headache thinking of how sirius could be valued, it's easy enough of sirius's projections, but it takes me into territory i am unfamiliar with, companies with obscenely large operating margins. They just look a bit strange to me, for example revenue of 1.15Billion, profit of 0.75 billion , market cap of say 6 billion. these type of numbers for a miner are hard to follow! but there are a few out there (disclaimer i know none of these companies are similar to sirius) for example indus gas Revenue of 50M market cap of 500M approx or Serica Energy. These high margin businesses, if ours proves to be are quite interesting beasts financially......

from startup to upper half of the ftse 100 in less than a decade, nice to hear that!

does work in with what alot of us think and hope for 1 Billion ebit x 8 multiple / back to £ = mkt cap 6.5B
nice for someone giving an idea of a valuation, nice to hear with all of us stuck down here after 9 months of share price hammerings

Sxx in top 10 most traded UK listed shares today, (excluding shares with a sp under 1pence) 17.7M shares traded in the note i read

perhaps this is a tad oversold, 60% discount to NAV. They seem to have been selling properties at a 7% discount to NAV, i have topped up a relatively small holding in hmso and think may do further. Debt is reducing and gross gearing being maintained despite reductions in nav factored in... Did read of possible equity raise on the cards

kind feels like that, but like most will never be able to market time... don't see it drifting much lower than 12/13p so the upside very much outweighs the downside.

Cheers Bellers so i read you've trialed some yourself, good result! , i'll put some of it to good use on some favoured plants

Was reading a few folks talking of icl polysulphate. I must be keen I have a small tub of icl polysulphate in the office, use it as a paperweight! Keep the eyes on the prize. Guess I could do a few tests with it in the garden

Evening!
I was wondering if i could ask two things, if anyone so kind to answer. Out driving for work the day, briefly checked in on the board and saw the temporary sp plunge and then later noted the bounce that took place. I was wondering how these extreme movements take place? I have seen such movements in sirius before, it almost feels comparable to a vortex opening up and the sp getting sucked down, before a second wave hits and it goes down even further... (and then we got the bounce) seen the same pattern before in sxx and a few years before in PETS...... How is it engineered??

Also i saw someone kindly recommended a book earlier "Free Capital" does anyone else have any book recommendations for books that help understand market manipulations and some of the tactics employed by traders.

thanks and good evening all...

CJ -- Haha remember him
""I didn't get where I am today by telling the truth.""

i must admit even i have felt pretty scunnered by the price movements today, when i looked at the price i felt a bit sick, "we're here already!!" but as i have heard Tobias and meb faber say, (both interesting chaps to follow) if you have done your research and believe in the story, the perfect time to buy in to a stock is when it makes you feel phisically sick........

well we're here today
did i buy more (again) Yes (didn't think i would see 13.5p today)

but not too happy overall. hope it all works out in the end

Cheers Myo
Some "tree shake" today haven't seen a plunge like this in some time

I guess everyone is entitled to their own opinions but i'm not too keen on wild predictions specially when they are based on hunches or ill informed technical analysis. Anyone who looks at a chart & draws or imagines a line & prophesies that the share price is going to hit 2p is likely to be wrong. Future share price is dictated by future developments in the real world. When the rns funding update is announced it is most likely to be positive for the share price, so is that visible from share chart?. I do see this possibly drifting a bit lower based on sentiment and lack of news but that doesn't mean it's going to 2p (2p would mean perceived bankruptcy) we are more likely to see a pleasant bounce and some positive momentum post bond rns -- but till then we wait

@Nelson 5p div? great, thanks for the reminder

i was fully aware this could drop below 15p (personally have thought the low could be 13.5 like many others -- but for different reasons) but jeezo, we dropped todays 0.75p pretty quickly!! well can't top up quite yet as have been buying regular over the last few weeks, but if we drop to below 14p most certainly will be averaging down , like many on here

just had a look at the company balance sheet and of course note there is £8.28 cash per share on there. So buybacks now, after the cycle has turned and op margin and earnings turning down a good idea?? hmm not so sure on that, if tehy need do buybacks -- sit on the cash and wait a year or so

Hi, i was wondering, what is Berkeley current dividend policy? i noticed it must have fallen to like 1%, what was the idea behind that -- inflating share price for bonuses by increasing eps? thinking to ditch these for something that has a better valuation and yield,
thank you in advance for your help. appreciated

Sorry read of your circumstance Bobster, I don't know how I'd cope in your situation, but the Ray of light in this is you'll likely break even and profit in the long run, if you don't crystallise your losses. I hope expect to see the Sp above 30 within 2 years and above that in the medium term, good luck

Will need someone more in the "know" to answer more fully but, 1. Unknown, however in context "CCC" bonds yield similar to B, so even if not B will add a couple percent if that. 3. The non investment grade bond market is trillions, so Sxx raise is a fraction of a %

To be honest I have little doubt the bonds will be raised and sold. 500 dollar, £415m, in the grand scheme of things its "chicken feed" especially with those buying knowing jpm behind the rcf. OK there is interest rate risk but as its just 415m every 1% over 10% may drop the sp and mkt cap by a percent or too. The worry of the bonds not being raised is a bit of a joke. Some scaremongering going on here, or major over emphasing risk.