Member Info for dadean

Or UK Britain succumbs to hyperinflation closing share price 2078 $578,124 or 1kg of polyhalite or packet of hobnobs

Hey archways never saw your post last night, guess due to it being split of the original thread due to the slightly different subject line. Good post, i can be a wee bit sloppy typing out on my phone. Yes indeed a big difference between proper earnings which can be released to pay down debt and disperse to shareholders. if i remember rightly quite often sxx gives their projected profit model figures in dollars so that needs converted back to £. So many variables to affect the bottom line, what will the currency exchange rate be, corporation tax be, interest tates be -- point noted these could have a massive impact on profit !

Thanks 15lives and thanks also Cherokee101, food for thought and what you said will help me value future companies. Good luck all

The little valuation model that I used in the above example was just roughly based on 10Mtpa targeting 1billion$ ebitda taking a conservative approach on price per tonne achievied but indeed the higher the price per tonne achieved and when they scale up past 10Mt to 13 & 20 there is scope for the ebitda to more than double. Understandably a very much best case scenario. But could happen. And from what we see in the market – whether it is sxx shares bitcoin or purple bricks, things get over valued we could in a best case scenario, general market melt up or narrow sentiment melt up go way higher than most of us dare talk about.
((2.5Billion ebitda $ or £2Billion on a pe of 12 = mkt cap 24Billion share price £2.40 approx))
If we see 1 billion per year profit it’s going to be life changing for many of us, myself included. Any more than that and the result would be unprecedented for many of us. I would probably quit my job and travel the world.
Ref the potash corp figures, haven’t been able to find much on a quick look, will need to look into that a bit more. I did see however that in 2017 at Potash Corp the net profit margin was 7% 2016 7.2% 2014 before the slump profit was 21%. Interestingly at Sirius we are expecting much higher margins
Heres to a profitable future!

That’s interesting 15Lives, I would say for the large part that pe of 8 was based on values commonly seen in high operating margin miners like sxx at times of good profitability.
If we were to take a pe of 26 for example and use that on our 1 us Billion dollar profits with 10 Billion shares that would end up valuing the shares and the company at £2.11 a share(mkt Cap of 26Billion) which is above what we expect and what Sirius forecasts.

Probably a pe of 8 is fair for a highly leveraged company. Perhaps when the PE of Potash Corp was 26, that was the period when their earnings cratered, thereby companies which had been trading on low pe’s suddenly were trading on sky high pe’s simply because their earning per share had fallen 70-90% while the share price had halved.
Fascinating stuff though the commodity market and producers.

Hi Sheep of wall street, a simple way to look at valuations would be as follows

Profit divided by the number of shares is profit per share --- or earnings per share…………….

So in the case of Sirius if we are expecting 1 billion dollars profit or £813Million profit, divide this by the number of shares in issue – say 10 billion
We now have earning per share of 8p. now we value the company, mining companies often command low pe valuations lets say a pe – price to earning of 8 times

8p eps multiplied by the pe of 8 will give us a possible share price 64p!

Easy jet
359M profit expected, 394m shares in issue 359/394 = 91.2p eps what multiple shall we value by ? 10! Therefore price is 10 x 91.2p – about 9.12 £ share price

Rough but useable!

Just noted I came in at 390 on pump and dumped! Does it differentiate between positive and negative posts?

Hi, followed this company for a while, how are their big box stores doing, any potential for revenue growth going forward or stopping the decline, impressed by the share holder pay outs but don't know how sustainable the specials are. Thank you

Eshaitan, as the div costs 13M i don't necessarily see it being cut, my own guess like opinion is they will keep it and pay it from cash reserves and profit. They've paid it now for 12 years and it has not been cut

I agree the drop in share price seems over done. I don't hold costain currently and considered buying after seeing the drop and having previously invested in it. I'm on the fence however, the low margins typical of the sector don't give much margin for safety and after briefly looking at the last set of accounts, the accounts receivable had near doubled on the previous year and the increases in working capital have been considerable. The accounts receivable increase in last accounts could suggest that they had been booking sales or income earlier for some time and they've had to catch up with reality..

Just unsure for now, could well see it bouncing off this low somewhat however, the rest of the information in the rns regarding booking for 2019 & 2020 did look encouraging
all the best

sorry i got the x halfords boss wrong -- got my dave's and Davies mixed up -- my bad...

Sorry its came to that Sxx4me, i know what you mean this site has become challenging to use, how many times have i typed and lost a post and all the page hanging

Strange over teh past few years i have seen many financial sites "modernised" and they have lost SO MUCH of their features and functionality.... its like -- we'll take this intricate stcock screener away but look at our lovely new large fonts!!! ive really struggled to find good replacements for certain sites...........................

all the best

Agree with you totally RMR, in fact i topped up too this afternoon. As long as the OP margin stops slipping we are on to a relatively safe share here, yeild close to 8% now... What do you think of the directors, quite impressed by Dave Lewis now at tesco, x ceo here, i wonder is the current ceo is doing as well as the previous ones did. I am happy to see they have scaled bake their cap x for the next few years, compared to the previous annoucement when they said they were increasing it substantially

I thought todays gain and yesterdays may have been just due to all the positive news flow....

No doubt they are doing well with the mine construction also really well on temporary equity destruction , made me laugh on the share awards a bit..........

OOOO the salaries and perks of those in power!!

pity we cant all create a plc. say we are looking for minerals or precious metals, pay ourselves handsomely and raise equity when we need it haha (ok that view is more in line with some questionable aim companies than our lovely polyhalite mine)

am i missing something, this looks like a good company to me, good free cash flow & fcf yield, good dividend, quite defensive in terms of a retailer, kids still need bikes and cars still need annual maintenance and service

woo hoo, maybe we will look back on the last couple of weeks and be thankful for the opportunity to top up at a discount to the discount and in some ways even up our share of ownership and future profits & gains

woo hoo, maybe we will look back on the last couple of weeks and be thankful for the opportunity to top up at a discount to the discount and in some ways even up our share of ownership and future profits & gains

In the 3years or so I've been invested I haven't recommended the share to anyone, despite wanting to, and believing in it. Probably its saved me enduring a loss for them. Might recommend now however damn good entry point now, my wife knows I'm a bit enthusiastic about the share and I've discussed the mine and the job creation with friends and the fertiliser product with the many farmers I see with my work

Cheers ffc, I'm happy to see sirius working on positive news flow, useful to keep us equity investors happy

Look forward to reading, tried googiling links to read but could not get access, no doubt someone will kindly post later