Member Info for D-Geeman

Poor wyn, accused of too clever and the absolute opposite on two different boards in the space a couple of hours!

CFAN, I doubt you'll mind but I'm going to repost what you wrote on TU day. I think it worthwhile reading and people might have missed it:
16 Jul 2021 09:24
CFAN. 'I must admit that I don't really understand the price of this company (despite being invested in it!). With Cash in the region of £5m the enterprise value is also around £5m which equates to ~0.2 of annual expected sales (Made trades at 2.64) which they're on track to achieve. Whilst it is currently loss making, they're spending on marketing to increase brand awareness and drive future sales and this is being seen in the impressive UK growth of 18%. UK marketing is currently at 29% of sales (~£3.5m) which clearly could be reduced if they wanted to make a profit but if you have cash in the bank why not use it?

Cash has decreased by £3.2 m which appears to be £0.7m into stock, £0.3 deferred VAT, £1m investment in French marketing so the remaining £1.2m should relate to EBITDA losses and the seasonal working capital movement they reference. Considering the UK marketing spend, it show's how easily they could post a profit and positive cash flow if they wanted.

On a different note, I like the strategy of having products like the CBD line which aren't intended to make significant money but are effectively self funded marketing.

Looking forward to seeing where this goes in the long run.'

Silverfox, just a quick PS regarding TP reviews. I'd forgotten I wrote this but on July 14, and taking of TP reviews, I posted this: 'Thanks sniffer, and I bet people who buy from Dunelm don't write TP reviews on the Eve page. TP reviews are more than 10% up so I would estimate turnover up at least 12% and probably more.'
So whether there are some fakes in those reviews it wasn't a bad prediction.

Very interesting, and that's ok then too.
Looks like 'Octopus Investments' with '37,473,358 13.7%' are largest shareholder and if they bought to increase from 13.7% to 30% the sp would shoot up anyway. Then the highest price they pay would be the takeover price (at least) for the next 12 months. Not going to be 2p for sure. (Out of my depth so do correct if that's not the case)

'As always D, you are a font of knowledge' REALLY NOT at all sure about that Don'tGive :-)
I asked wyn about possibility of someone buying the company a few days ago, having completely forgotten about what I just posted today. It was your 2p offer scenario that triggered my memory. To be fair to myself though, when I asked 'Just suppose for a second that some party was thinking about buying eve. Would now be the best time (SP back in the 3p's) or later and pay ... double?' I was thinking of the sub-30% type of holder; would someone begin to build a position now at 3.5 p or wait for more evidence.. a friendly takeover or merger at a fair price.
Anyway, it looks like the CBD spike does give most some protection; 7.18p is the 'year high' according to HL but the highest price on the day in mid-Feb was 9.5p...

Don't give up, I'm only repeating what I've read in the past but I don't think we can be taken over for less than that CBD spike price, not for a few months anyway. There'll be people who know about this (not me!) but I found this:
The following is a brief summary of some of the most important Rules
https://www.thetakeoverpanel.org.uk/the-code/download-code :
'When a person or group acquires interests in shares carrying 30% or more of the voting rights of a company, they must make a cash offer to all other shareholders at the highest price paid in the 12 months before the offer was announced (30% of the voting rights of a company is treated by the Code as the level at which effective control is obtained).'

Just an observation but eve is a rather more exciting company than when I first bought; roughly 2.5 / 3 years ago they had a single product and the news that came out really was always pretty bad. And TP had maybe 2 or 3 entries a day.

Hi Silver, I agree that TP results could be manipulated, especially at the start (I heard they are proposing a law against fake reviews). However the rise in TP reviews of Eve has mirrored the rise in revenue quite closely.
Also, the more reviews that come in, the harder it is to manipulate. We know that Eve monitor TP reviews.
If they tried to manipulate reviews and it came out (Eve's Dom Cummings?) that could blow a hole in the company. I shall continue to follow and post them (though anyone could do it themselves) and then either take them or leave them as you feel is appropriate.
The TP reviews for November (Black Friday) shot up and we know from CC that they had a very high rate of sales that week. Can't all be made up.
If anything, looking at some reviews, I'd I'm sometimes sceptical of the bad ones. I read one recently where someone complained that their double eve was dipping in the middle when less than 2 yrs old, and in the guest room. When people do report sagging and calling out the eve QC people they invariably report a ridge in the middle (which eve often say is actually reasonable wear and tear rather than a fault). You see my point?
When I report TP numbers they could all be bad for all I know; I just report the number as I feel it's probably a genuine sale.
Incidentally. I left a poor TP review for Virgin Mobile yesterday. Most of their reviews are from disgruntled customers and they obviously don't give a damn. Eve is not like that and encourage all customers to review, good or bad.

in terms of trustpilot reviews, +18% times 3 would mean we'd need to reach 5257 reviews annually (taking the base as 3000 reviews which I recall was the figure around January '21). Today we are on 3341. (July is heading above 200.)

Dub, many thanks for that. Very interesting.

Monsieur Wyndrum, I reckon you should order the Hybrid for Mrs W via the French site, if you get one! (Hermes back across the channel won't add much to £s.)

Fish found (put's it all into perspective..)
When we had £10m in the bank, £8m in the bank it was said that it doesn't;t matter; you can't just say that divide the market cap by the number of shares to get the SP as eve is loss making so sooner or later the money will be gone.
Therefore, by the same token, we should probably not say that we have 'less money in the bank so the SP is lower' but the sp is lower as people think losses will continue. From the TU (revenue up 18% / 13%) and France responding to the marketing, we should be able to take some comfort.

Wyn, I think it was Stephan who posted the review results for France but here it is
https://www.avis-verifies.com/avis-clients/evesleep.fr?filtre=&p=1
They are quite uneven which is odd:
Feb 7
March 105
April 44
May 9
AND, just checking before posting, it doesn't seem to work now: Cette société ne travaille plus avec Avis-Verifies.
Gotta go; daughter thinks a fish in the tank is missing..

I take your points username but I think it would be true to say that without France the headline would've been revenue up 18% rather than revenue up 13%. But I am glad they are in France myself. Otherwise their sales' territory map would've have resembled the Dad's Army map of the UK :-)

Yes, can't dispute 'less money in the bank'.. The RNS did say that France was responding well to the advertising. Is it generous to think that it's really too early to expect June sales from a May / June advert? I'm guessing that people did the same as us when we bought our eve; do a bit of research for three or 4 weeks, and then buy on a credit card. For me CC has still done what she said she'd do.
Would've been nice to here "consistently profitable in 2022" but I guess that's more for a webinar than an RNS on results till June 2021.

Weird that trades are showing up this morning from: 12-Jul 07-Jul- 07-Jul- 07-Jul 07-May- 30-Apr- 20-Apr- 07-Jul- 07-Jul- 07-Jul- 07-Jul-21

Morning Wyn, you argue that well but we always thought that the UK market not large enough on its own and that France was important. I think you once said that you're glad they stayed in France for that reason. Leave France and it's hard to get back (as Henry VIII probably said once).
They have a French 'team' of one, an office, and they've spent money on advertising (production and buying the media). The £3m hasn't all gone to France we know (VAT payment; increasing stock which seems very sensible etc). If they had said 'we can't hack-it in France so we're leaving' that would have not helped the sp much either. I think I would have panicked at that. CC did say that they expect France to do much better in H2 when she gave the webinar.
They do have increasing sales (up 18% revenue in the UK) which is quite something, and it's continuing despite lockdown ending, they say.
On the plus side I can buy more with the few hundred £s I can transfer to my ISA tomorrow.
I just thought.. Did they reiterate "consistently profitable by 2022 end" in the TU? I don't think they did. Could that be a problem in either presentation or a change of their outlook?

Username, someone’s gone back through the cuttings and also skim-read the RNS. Must make CCs blood boil.

It's behind a paywall but here it is in full:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mattress-firm-eve-sleep-warns-of-supply-snag-nc55xr9bg

Saturday July 17 2021, 12.01am, The Times
Katherine Griffiths

Mattress firm Eve Sleep warns of supply snag
Shares in Eve Sleep, the online mattress retailer backed by the fund manager Neil Woodford, dropped after its revenues in France fell and it said that there could be problems of supply and costs in the autumn.

Revenues in the six months to June 30 rose 13 per cent to £13.9 million overall but that included an 8 per cent drop in France, which was the result of a lack of advertising, Eve said.

The business was launched in 2015 with the claim that it would provide “the world’s most comfortable mattresses”.

It listed on Aim at 101p a share in May 2017, raising £35 million with the help of Woodford to put a £140 million valuation on what was then a loss-making company.

Shares in the company have since collapsed, falling a further ¾p, or 15.2 per cent, to dip below 4p yesterday.

In the UK and Ireland, revenues rose 18 per cent, or 15 per cent compared with pre-pandemic trading in 2019. To boost its business, Eve launched a TV campaign in May and is expanding into areas including bed frames, duvets, linen bedding made from bamboo and a sleeping aid product.

Cheryl Calverley, Eve Sleep’s chief executive since last year, said: “The start of our investment programme in France has been very encouraging, and we look forward to seeing this campaign power our business performance over the next two years, replicating the progress we have seen in the UK.”

Eve flagged up supply problems in March. Yesterday it said those pressures had “abated to some degree”.

But it added: “There may well be further disruption and inflationary pressures, dependent on how the pandemic continues to affect global supply chains.”

Analysts at FinnCap said: “The statement sets a confident tone in terms of positive demand factors in the retail sector and confirms that so far there have been no signs of a return to pre-pandemic shopping behaviour, implying a continuation of the shift towards online purchasing.”

Hi Wyn,
When you put it like that it would seem less likely that we shouldn't expect a takeover any time very soon, though it could happen. There could be a bit of position building to begin with that may or may not be noticeable. When I posed my original question it was from the point of view that someone might think 'now or never' with SP being sub-4p again.

This is old now https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/emma-reports-skyrocketing-sales-of-eur-405-million-usd-494-7-million-emerges-as-worlds-leading-d2c-sleep-brand-and-introduces-worlds-most-advanced-smart-mattress-301212838.html but Emma seemed to be doing very well with more or less the same business model as eve, but now eve has branched out with the spin-offs. Having said that Emma are – I think – a private company (GmbH "company with limited liability".. broadly equivalent with the private limited company in the UK") and their news does not face the same level of scrutiny as a PLC.
I know it's all relative but these spin offs can add-up I'd imagine. Plenty of company make a buck with pyjama sales so why not eve.

More waiting then. I had been 'up' overall but now back to 'down' so would be nice for good news here or elsewhere :-) Even Halfords have done rather batter than eve but I left Halfords before their rise. With them it was rather 'why are they not rising?' so I sold out – and then they did. EC turned out to be right! I don't want to leave eve, still my biggest holding, and have the same thing happen here. That would be tooooo annoying :-)
Have a good afternoon all.

From his tone, sounds like the day of the 12 week scan (so can announce someone close is preggers).

Just suppose for a second that some party was thinking about buying eve. Would now be the best time (SP back in the 3p's) or later and pay ... double? Would the current sp flush them out or would they wait for more evidence of strong prospects?