Member Info for Cygnus7

Stevemocal: Looks like you were thinking the along the same lines as me!

The only practical way I can see this working is that XTR decides to approach AA at some future time with a JORC but are at liberty to inform the market of the model results at any time they like. Essentially, they say that RC is believed to have X amount of Cu but they plan to continue drilling Ascot & Footrot and plan to approach AA in X months time. That way AA still get first dibs but XTR are not compelled to offer the resource the moment they reach 2MT.

I see Xtract gets a mention.

With the way the market is right now I was pleased and surprised that yesterday's appreciable rise was not sold into later in the day. I take that to mean that the sp has reached a bottom and that buyers now know that that this can only realistically go north. With two sources of African income, Africa alone supports the current sp and Australia is effectively in the bag for free.

Now off to get my shopping before the tarmac melts....

"Do you honestly think Kjeld and team will get out of bed for £1.8m which is 1% of 180m????"
Hi Bauhouse,
Thanks for asking for my thoughts. Unfortunately my thoughts are irrelevant. It's the numbers that matter. I laid out a very simple equation and you just have to plug your own numbers in. When I did so I made it clear that I was being very conservative (and incidentally only considering RC ) but I invite you to do the same. Get back to us with your thoughts, numbers and expected sp and we can see what you think Kjeld will get out of bed for.
Regards.

Jcookec,
Porphyries, from which most copper is mined can have copper content as low as 0.15% and I recently heard of a feasibility study that included 0.1%. However, the reason they can get away with these grades is that porphyries are usually huge and of course the current, or rather recent, price of copper.

Stevemocal,
My concern is that the gold seams in Ascot are thin and although there may be a lot of gold there we may well miss the seams if the drills are wrongly directed or just plain unlucky. Footrot on the other hand has not shown anything to get excited about at this time and could well be a dud.
I would however, like to see the latest IP results as if there are additional porphyries in the area, that could be the key.
Can't help thinking that CB is keeping that data quiet although if he is, I think it is for good strategic reasons.

Well Rick assured us that his target price was 3,5 p so, common mate, how many did you pick up. Which of those 'sea of blue' buys is yours. Don't be shy: own up.

Stevemocal,
Regarding my RC numbers:
I chose 1.5 MT because I wanted to be overly cautious and indeed added the comment that it could be more. Personally I believe we will be over 2 MT especially when one looks at the recent feasibility report for another resource reported here that included ore down to 0.1 % Cu albeit that would depend on a good Cu price.
As for the XTR 80% clause, well that's true but if we take off 20% then add our own price we may be better placed but they somewhat cancel each other out. It was after all, a finger in the air estimate.
My own feeling is that any offer will be the equivalent to about 25p although that may well include shares belonging to the purchaser plus, we will still own shares in XTR's African assets which should be worth a few pence, bizarrely probably more than the current sp!

Steve,
There was a lot of talk about this about 6 to 9 months ago.
The simple sums, assuming AA wanted to buy are:
If the asset is 1.5 MT (could be more) x
an assumed Cu price of $7500 per tonne (could be more) x
convert to $ (say ~ x 0.8)
an assumed value ratio of 2% (value of asset that AA will pay for metal in the ground - could be more)
divide by the number of shares, ~ 1 Bilion, gives
18p a share.
Clealry, if asset is bigger, if price of Cu is higher, if being in a safe, convenient location increases the % value to AA then that number should be higher.
All IMHO

Have to say I never thought I'd see this price. I was happy with an average around 3.5 p and smugly thought few others could match that. Now anybody with new money can match my average.

Hi Docit,
It's just that I've got myself into trouble before when just trying to, hopefully spread the wealth. The company is Rambler based in Canada. It's a turn around mine which appears to be ramping up production and becoming profitable but the sp is tumbling only days after reporting good production figures. Some debt but appears to be on the mend.
DYOR

The one saving grace of the plunge in the sp is that I expect to receive some funds in the next month or two and if these prices persist I will likely top up.
I have another company that I think may interest shareholders here (Cu miner) but don't want to name it and be accused of cross-ramping. If there's any interest I will do so as I personally always want to hear about other companies from other investors.

Just a point of clarification. The increased price of copper has allowed the minable ore grade to drop to 0.15% which increases the minable copper content of RC. What it does not do is also decrease the 2MT point of interest to AA. If it did you would have a double edged sword working for you which is not logical.
If on the other hand your grade limit was maintained (say 0.3% for instance) then the increased price of copper would allow the size of the ore deposit to fall while maintaining the same profitability for AA.
Just musing.

Prickly, I think you'll find the cost of production will be a lot less than $5000 per tonne. Suggesting that any company associated with copper is getting a pounding - usually beyond what the economics would suggest.
Now I'm off to watch the Grand Prix.

Screenlearner,
It would explain the lack of info and delays but as I have said before, I'm happy to wait if it means a bigger jam sandwich some time down the road.

I do find the current situation nerve racking. The basis of that is the lack of updates relating to news we would expect to now be available: IP results, drilling progress, assays and other news. I have been here before and the end result is not usually good. However, I find it difficult to see how XTR is not going to pan out to the benefit of shareholders. We have income (which is essentially the most critical characteristic of any successful company) and resources in the ground that are both in demand and not going anywhere unless XTR says so.
We can argue about the value of those resources but as long as a major miner feels the grades are sufficient to make it worthwhile mining then the sp is way below the current value.
But that brings me back to why we have not heard about news that should have been available weeks ago. I accept that things can be happening behind the curtain but surely with the sp where it is now it would pay to let some of this be revealed to maintain interest. Surely not all of it would have a detrimental effect of discussions with a third party.
Hence my jangled nerves - I'd like to top up here when funds become available in the next month or two but do I have the nerves of steel?
Only time will tell.

Steve4077, your message triggered a couple of thoughts. Firstly, I think the timing is important. CB may well be playing for time precisely because now is not the best moment to enter a copper resource onto the market although a short squeeze may well occur in the near future when the need for copper overpowers the conventional market forces which suggest that the demand for copper will fall.
Secondly, AA can not be expected to make a big, expensive decision on the purchase of BR in 10 days. Hence I expect they are already doing their homework and talking to CB even as we speak.

Gixxer,
If I remember correctly you have a large number of shares and consequently you are very heavily geared and consequently very sensitive to any fall in the sp. I can understand that but as has already been said, I think the delay here is due to good reasons not bad. I think CB said that we don't want to sell and then find in a year or two that AA inherit a huge resourse that has not been reflected in the sale price.
Stuff is happening and it needs extra time to come to fruition. Ascot, Footrot and potentially other assets could make us a fortune but for just a touch of luck.
Deep breath ... and think of England.... -:)