Member Info for Cygnus7

Don't know why the sp is dropping. The results were 'steady as she goes' and show firm continuing income.

I find this confusing. The argument seems to be that AA should be able to compel XTR to sell after eventually going to an independent abitur but that XTR ultimately hold all the cards do to the 80 % clause where they can name their price!

Flipper: I would like to see something similar happen at BR.

Thanks everyone for your consideED views.
Doaah.

Thanks everyone for your consider views. Interesting thought that the other, unexplored licenses around BR may have considerable value just via their location.
Well, that livened things up a bit after ~36 hours with no messages !

I think the mood of this board is that most want XTR to do the deal and sell RC on to a willing bidder ASAP. I am of a different opinion and I'll set out my reasons.

I've have just retired and although I'm not short of cash and should have a confortable retirement BR could be life changing as I have a sizable holding here. The general feeling is that RC has come in a tad shy of the 2MT we all hoped for. Ascot is obviously very useful but is only partially drilled while it appears new anomalies have been found which will not be drilled, but do implied value - i.e leaving something for the customer to explore. To me XTR is a rare beast indeed. It is self financing. Most small exploration companies are in a race to find treasure before they dilute themselves into the ground. XTR could theoretically explore until the cows come home.
Now, what with the world economy going down the toilet and the price of Cu dropping we really seem to have picked a poor time to put BR on the market. My fear is that we will sell BR for the equvilent of 10 to 15 p a share when there is clearly a lot more Cu in the license area. As we as shareholder are unlieky to find many, if any, explorers in the situation that XTR find themselves just now, doesn't it make sense to ring the neck of this chicken while the opportunity exists? Yes, it means waiting a year or so more but in the current market, owning a cash generating company that is continually finding more Cu, gold, silver & moly knowing that in time it will be a screaming buy for any large miner that wants to fight over it seems a safer place for our cash.
Personally I would be willing to wait to create that wealth. So, possibly my dream situation would be for AA to turn down the offer (or CB turns down AA's offer) and have all other miners too preoccuopied with current market issues to make an offer. The sensible thing to do then would be for XTR to continue drilling Ascot and some of the new anomalies and create a resource that demands the attention of the big miners.
I may be in a minority but my dream situation seems more preferable than selling into market chaos when the Cu price is dropping and we have unexplored sources of more Cu.
I would be interested in other opinions.

Iwantthatone,
My reading of his interview is that they have the IP survey results and there are new 'anomalies' which will not be drilled. The existing drill results are sufficient to imply that these anomalies contain Cu although how much is anybody's guess. They will however be valued very lowly due to the lack of evidence. It does however raise the question of why have we not seen the IP survey results? I know I would be interested.
That's the way I read it but it's only my guess.

My only regret for an early sale is that I expect the Cu price to still be low at that time. Not sure how much that will influence the price but it can't help!

Also, as the timeline seems to have been accelerated, I wouldn't be surprised to see some buying tomorrow as the traders move in for the jam tomorrow delivery.

Andrew,
As the latest information from the podcast suggests that there will be no third phase I'm expecting the sale to be sooner than you (and I in a message I posted just a couple of days ago) suggest.
Also, I would expect the XTR shares we will still hold after the sale will be roughly similar to the current sp, i.e Bushranger is currently valued at zilch.

James,
I don't think that's the case in this instance. My understanding is that there will be a 'special dividend'.

My expectation is that this special dividend will probably consist of cash, presumably some shares from the miner purchasing the resource and still be left holding my original XTR shares. Does anybody think/know differently?

The way I see things panning out is that another programme of exploration will take place which will primarily define the near surface resource at RC and I imagine a handful of holes into RC to extend areas of inferred resources into the indicated category or simply to plug a hole or two in the data. There will be more holes to further define Ascot but include a few wild-cat holes into anomalies noted in the IP survey. This will likely end next spring (a year later than planned but I'm not complaining if it means increased profitability). Then it's hammer time! Despite many predictions that Cu will be at a near term low in the spring (prior to an extended run up in price) CB will need to sell this package on. I can only hope that the majors will take into account the anticipated long term price of Cu when they evaluate the value of this asset.
The other possibility is that XTR could sit on the resource until the price of Cu appreciated to a value more indicative of its future demand. This would of course mean that the resource could be further drilled out 'in slow time' to improve the resources JORC standing and consequently its value. I realise there are probably not many here who would want that approach but the other option is to sell at the bottom of the recent Cu price cycle. I can only imagine that a major miner would use that to drive down the price. Time will tell.

Seems like a lot of positives buys this morning considering the state of the market. Do the purchasers know something I don't? Is news afoot?

That makes sense. What with the funeral yesterday it may have been difficult to get an RNS together for delivery to us this morning.

I'd rather the sp flounders around the current level for a week or two more so I can have one last top up...

Sorry :}

Ben, further to the point you are making.

About a decade ago I was heavily into a silver mine in Mexico and all seemed great. We shareholders were getting lots of photos of brightly painted mill components, more exploration was taking place and we were told that production was any day now. Then an RNS arrived saying that the monthly loan repayment had not been made and the loan company now owned the shop. Them's the breaks as Boris would say.
I Currently have a small holding in a Canadian miner that is producing copper but put out an RNS last week saying that financial restructuring would have to take place and the sp quickly dropped by over 50%.
My point is that one of the reasons I am over-weight on XTR is that we are debt free with regular income. These are rare assets for an explorer. I feel nervous about putting more money into XTR but every time I look at the company set-up I find it difficult to see a down side. The worst that can happen here is that for some bizarre reason, nobody is interested in RC + Ascot. That still leaves the company sp reflecting the current assets. If the Aussie assets are worth anything then we as shareholders are quids in. If, as many expect there is a run on Cu then those same assets become a gold-mine (excuse the semi-pun)! Hence, if the sp is similar to what it is now in a few weeks time when I expect something of a windfall then I will be looking to top up.
Hold the faith....

One other point, with the lower price of Cu and the high price of energy (required to mine the Cu), at this time the resource model will in all likelihood need to use a higher cut-off grade figure than 0.15% leading to a smaller resource. But that will depend on the economic situation at the time the model is signed off.
Sorry to be negative but need to be honest about these things.

howezap,
My comment on 'sitting on hands' was meant to imply that as we are currently self financing we cannot be held to ransom with a low ball offer i.e if we don't take the offer we will suffer dilution etc. Instead, we can threaten to 'sit on our hands' until the right offer come along.

howezap,
My comment on 'sitting on hands' was meant to imply that as we are currently self financing we cannot be held to ransom with a low ball offer i.e if we don't take the offer we will suffer dilution etc. Instead, we can threaten to 'sit on our hands' until the right offer come along.

Howezap & Zaph,
This is currently something of a 'wilderness time' where we simply need to wait until the model(s) and results are ready and the market turns. To think that all can create a perfect storm and arrive at the same time is a tad fanciful but CB, with African income is in a position to say that by looking forward both the price of Cu and the market will be far more attractive to XTR and hence we can, if necessary sit on our hands. I know that's not what many (most) want but it may well pressure AA, or another, to increase their bid for our assets when the market sentiment does not reflect such an offer. Also, during this time if XTR initiates phase 3 then the resource and the price will only increase leading to more pressure for a prospective new owner to make an offer. So, having been used to watching XTR like a hawk I will have to get used to things moving a little slower but there is the prospect of picking up more shares as the sp will drift during this time. It is AIM after all.