Member Info for Cygnus7

I thought there may be a bit more interest in XTR today following the last RNS.
Still sitting on my hands.....

Interesting info howezap. Somehow still feel that unless Ascot is particularly rich in Cu, Au, Ag & (Mo?) we may be heading for a third phase hopefully financed by African income. This will take a while but we could hit a perfect storm with a Cu price that reflects the world's future reality.
I love the current price (as a buyer for future riches) but am getting to the point where I'm over-exposed to XTR and need to rein myself in!

Investing 100: like you, I had a top up this morning. Even if BR was worthless, at these prices there's money to be made on African assets alone.
The way I see this working out assuming RC is not a money pit (to be proven one way or the other) is that further drilling will occur on Ascot to delineate its boundary more clearly. It may well be that Ascot is the real source of wealth and would be mined first making the mining of RC worthwhile. However, this is all going to take more time...

Steve4077 has always been a trusted contributor here and if he put the work in he's entitled to use that information before he distributes it to others.
However, for the sake of the sp it may have been better to simply suggest that the finances do not look as encouraging as hoped. I, for one will be holding in the hope that Ascot changes the scenery. As suggested earlier, the gold income could be used to expand the Ascot resource as it is open in all directions. Maybe in time, Ascot could become the major resource and RC simply act as an additional source for the higher grade material.
I still think BR is a porphyry system with many sources of Cu etc. Just needs exploring in which case a local mill would have multiple sources of worthwhile ore.

As with all of you, I was disappointed at this mornings news however, to listen to some of you one would think the administrator had been called in. Really not sure some of you have the mental stoicism to be investing in exploration companies. That said...

Andrew444, looking at your numbers I think it's quite reasonable Ascot could be 0.4MT, The price of Cu $8k/T and the % figure 2% (yesterday there was talk of a lot more but considering todays figures 2% is more realistic). Multiply those out you get almost 20p. The resource may not be of interest to AA considering it did not get to 2MT but that may just clear the way for more exploratory work to mature RC, Ascot & the other anomalies. Yes, that means delay and I know many here want to move on but low level exploration financed via our African resources could lead to a geographical porphyry region ripe for the plucking just when the Cu price launches. It just means waiting although the sp could be very in the short term allowing it to be very advantageous in the long term.

I can't see the asset being worth £100m or less. I'd being thinking a few multiples of that. Consequently I'd be hoping for a minimum of 20p although I expect some cash will be held back by XTR to fund future exploratory work. Also, if the deal goes as I expect some of that 20p will be in shares by the parent mining company that purchases BR plus, we will still have our shares in XTR which after the spotlight that such a deal shines on XTR could be worth two or three times more than they are worth now.

"So say a shareholder has an average price of 5p and are bought out for, say, £150'000'000 (would be equal to a SP of 17.5p), would the shareholder have a potential 3.5x return, or would it be different based on the idea of XTR holding money back for the next step?"
My guess would be that some cash would be held back and you'd get a dividend based on say, 15p per share although some of that would be in the purchasers shares, plus keep your XTR shares.

Gixxer, but surely XTR have to be prepared to accept the adjudication. They may accept the first evaluation but decide not to go for the second. I presume....

Thanks Jezzoo, the price may simply be rising in anticipation of good news from CB - to be reported , or based on actual good news that has leaked.

Yes, but one which CB can refuse to accept. There are others waiting to consider the resource.

Healthy looking moves this morning.

Just one observation about the comments that it's the current 'here and now' price of Cu that's important.
When CB discusses the value of BR with AA, if AA want to play that game CB can conveniently say "O.K, we will take this to the wider market". I.e, exactly what he wants to do.
AA need to consider the longer game if they want to curry favour with CB. In this regard the future price of Cu is relevant.

CB could be waiting for market conditions to improve but considering the expected Cu price over the next few years that would mean an unacceptable wait for most shareholders. Having said that the price of Cu has perked up recently which is always helpful during negotiations. It is so much better to be in discussions when the price is increasing on almost a daily basis compared to a moribund price which takes the urgency off the situation.

Steve: in view of your messag, the recent RNS history (or lack of) is therefore entirely consistent with XTR negotiating with AA and would explain the lack of BR news.

We could still do with some confidence building African news though!

I think the fact that we have not heard about the results of phase two suggests to me that this information, although complete, is being shared with AA as we wait - hence the delay in it being reported to the public. This would also gel with the news about the options a week or two ago, Get those sorted before releasing the info to AA to avoid insider trading issues.
If AA are not interested then we should hear soon, if they are 'horse trading' then there will be a further delay. The delay in itself is good news because it means that AA are interested and need to make an offer that will prevent XTR walking away and opening it up to other miners. It does put XTR in a good place - head we win, tails AA lose.

Some big buys appear to be happening but as of yet there's no reaction on the sp.....

howezap, yes, I have a spreadsheet with multiple variables that I like to play with, using both conservative and enthusiastic figures to get a feel for the range of possible outcomes. Kills the time.....

howezap, I prefer to add RC to Ascot plus some arm waving estimates for probable anomalies/porphyries (plus Footrot) making up a sum total of about 2 MT. I think in total we must be approaching this figure.

That would be a nice Chimbo present.

Just thinking about the recent RNS about the options. The real message here is that discussions with AA have not yet started as, if they had, then that would constitute insider-trading. However, the RNS may also signal that discussion are just about to start: shall we say 'imminent' !

In a similar vein, I believe we are still waiting for assay results from Footrot plus the electrical survey results. I wonder if the fact we have not heard anything yet means this information is withheld financial/strategic reasons? Just musing...

Seems the precious metals are suddenly going ballistic....
Not sure how much effect that would have on a prospective value for BR but it can't hurt.