Member Info for Cygnus7

It's not the £6k of warrant that has dropped the sp, it's traders taking advantage of the recent rapid rise.

I've mentioned Moly a few times in the past myself. At around $70k/ T one would think it has some relevance to the economic argument but CB has only ever mentioned it is passing, using it to help identify Ascot as a different system to RC.

It's amazing how this share can move on such little volume and clearly the two trades today have been purchases despite what the this site suggests.

Billy, yes, this point has been bought up before but I remember CB saying that major miners (interesting phrase) do not buy tiddlers. Not sure why. Seems like a good business plan but there you are.

My personal view of the future here is based on the last RNS. We have around 0.75 MT of Cu at a grade of 0.33% plus 0.5 MT of lesser grades. There's Ascot which is open in most direction plus prospective Cu at a number of anomalies including Footrot which is yet to convince me that it has legs. Plus of course the African income. I think the business plan must surely show that BR is economic as the .33% grade material alone is worth almost $7 billion at current Cu prices.

This will go one of two directions. Either AA will think that under the existing economic environment that they want to have access to this resource or they will pass. The first option means the quick payback that so many of us are looking for. The second option means the resource is open to offers but I can't imagine Colin will leave it there. More likely he will start a phase 3 financed via Africa to expand Ascot and dip his toes into the untested anomalies. This route will take longer but is eventually more profitable.
Just my opinion/view.

Good to see a little action on this share. Although I don't own a lot of these I will be looking to add should the sp drop back again to around 2.8p. Too often I have chased sp's as they rose only to have the sp fall again. I plan to be patient. If the sp soars then great. I wont have a lot of shares but they will be profitable. If the sp drops, I'll buy in again.

ZeroMatrix: Yes, I know. I try to ignore them too. I try to get an idea from the sell and buy prices but even that doesn't always help.

Just had a top up at 1.8 p which has registered as a sell. There are many 'sells' at this price so I suspect there's been a fair amount of buying today. The sells recorded here are not reflected by the static SP.

On another matter, the last RNS stated that there were around 0.75 MT of copper at a grade of 0.33%. Although not what we were expecting/hoping for, that's still a lot of copper in a top notch mining country and even then it's not in the middle of nowhere. It's just down the road from Sydney. Even if nothing else is added to the resource, this is still an attractive asset. Just need a little more patience....

Hi Metalhead,
Yes, looks promising. I'm pleased to see that the majors here will be doing a lot of the heavy lifting as I'm always wary of dilution with finance minor explorers. Still, if there is a global recession and Cu takes a while to head north, those with the patience to accumulate shares in companies like AFP over the next year or so should be well rewarded.
Keep the faith !

Hi Metalhead, I think we know each other from other sites. Hope you are well.
I have now bought my first batch of shares in this company (the ~73,000) from this morning. Interestingly I had to buy via a negotiated deal and ended up paying a lot more than I was anticipating. Also, I asked for 75K but only had enough for 73K (due to the higher price than expected) so I see that there was a cancelled purchase for 75k before the 73k was completed. Hoping for positive news in the near future.

Decided to have a small dip into this company after hearing a few good reviews over recent months only to find the market had closed - Dohh...
O.K, I'll wait until the new year. From Cb's Sunday roast chat it seems there's lots of news due in the new year.

There's no realistic substitute for copper. Aluminum may have some applications but its conductivity is lower meaning energy gets lost as heat. There is one better conductor than copper but that's silver and with its price just around $24/Oz as we speak it has few applications. The only other possibility is some new alloy but the chances are that that would be even more expensive than Copper.
My only concern is that if the price of copper goes to the sort of price I'd like to see then every village hall is going to have its copper pipes torn out by thieves. I suppose one solution there is replace those with plastic or steel! There you go, just found one substitution....

Blimey NicetoMichu, that is a negative view despite the 'worst case' scenario.
I think the joint value of RC & Ascot falls between two stalls. Not big enough for AA to take an interest at this time but big enough to require further investment by XTR.
My view is that this will lead to two possible outcomes.
Both involve a third phase to round out Ascot plus further exploration of Footrot and initial examination of the two anomalies mentioned.
The first option is for XTR to foot the bill for this work via the income from Africa while the second involves a JV with AA who take an interest in the prospect by financing some fraction of the exploration in exchange for a reduced price for the prospect should it be worth their while. That price decided by an independent arbiter.
Just me musing.

Pinnocchio: sounds like you should get as far away as possible from this board. Don't want your street cred taking a hit.
Don't let the door hit you on the a!!e on the way out.

I personally like to see other posters sums, estimates and predictions but always try to appraise what those estimates are based on. I do these sums myself knowing that there are - as the Americans say, 'known unknowns'. My estimates of the value of RC took a hit when the actual size was revealed but I knew that data point was unknown. Now I can put that figure into my model and the end result is that more accurate. The next data point is the size of Ascot.
As long as you make the figures rough guides and not your master.
Yes, a black swan event can knock all of your plans out of the water but you have to base your decisions on something and it would be illogical to assume that there will always be a black swan event to stop reaching your target.
Here's hoping for news before Xmas.

NicetoMichu: as somebody else said "Ascot may well be the daddy of the local system".

Thanks for your thoughts guys/girls.
If CB was planning to mine the area between the two deposits then it does suggest that he thinks the low grades there are of some value. I realise he may not have had all of the grade information at that time but I suspect the geos would be able to make a rough estimates from some in-house tests.

I have a general question that others may be able to answer.
There was a lot of drilling between RC & Ascot in an attempt to join the two. From what I could pick up it seemed that there was an emphasis to try and prove the link between the two systems. Personally I can't see the issue here. If the two are not linked it does not seem to be important as any local mill can be situated between the two and ore can be hauled out of each. Yes it would be nice if the two were linked as that means more Cu and a miner can make a clean sweep of the two but there did seem to be a lot of effort when the results were not convincing. More effort could have been invested in extending Ascot. Can anybody explain ?
Thanks in advance.

Butlerman: I was also thinking about what is due before Xmas. If it appears on time then it might raise some interest but I can imagine that Ascot will only be a few 100K of Cu but probably at a goodish grade.
As for new money, as has been said most investors are maxed out now. I did have a small nibble at sub 2p as it would be rude not to and I wish I could have more but despite funds being available I need to rein in my desire to get more as I am over-exposed here. So, loos like being quiet up to Xmas unless good news arrives.

Because that production appears to be for the small scale miners of the whole of Zimbabwe...
So, your question for CB is " why is XTR not producing the gold output of a small country".
I have to admire your ambition :)