Member Info for Cygnus7

I'm wondering if the reason for the current low sp is due to the traders thinking that XTR will announce the size of the resource and then start talking to AA to see if they are interested. That way the traders can judge the risk level and get in at the last moment 'Johnny come lately' style. Now, I have no prior knowledge of how these things work but it seems far more likely that XTR will announce both the size of the resource and the results of talk with AA at the same time. Not only that, but if the talks have been successful, a special dividend will be announced to shareholder based on some prior date. Possibly some weeks earlier.
It makes no sense to me that CB would announce a resource size and then begin talks. Many LTHs would be placed at a disadvantage as traders piled in awaiting the announcement of a special dividend. Maybe others have more experience in these matters and can enlighten me .
So, if I'm right then all those traders that want their pound of flesh need to get in now and show a little patience otherwise they could soon find themselves frozen out of the 'sweetie shop'.

howezap, I think what may have killed the early enthusiasm is that a lot of holes and time were spent drilling between RC and Ascot. I think, from memory this was to do with trying to find a common source of both porphyries and to seal off the southern reaches of RC. Other than one very good gold seam, the source was not found but a lot of weak mineralisation assets were returned. I think this gave the impression that grades overall were not economic and this led to disenchantment in the asset for those not fully up to speed.

howezap, whatever the remuneration procedure applied will not change the underlying value of the asset, but, there is clearly a good incentive for Kjeld to get the maximum return possible.

The way I estimate the possible special dividend is to 'guess' the potential Cu content of BR, 'guess' a $ figure for Cu/T (which is difficult because one has to guess how far forward AA & CB are looking) then 'guess' what % figure would be used for the value of the Cu in the ground. I have heard estimates for this from 1% to 4% and this figure incorporates the jurisdiction the resource is in, the various standards of JORC achieved, the strip ratio, the local facilities (power, access, local available manpower) and a bunch of other things I can't imagine.
As you may have guessed (there's that word again), there's a tad's worth of guessing going on. Even so, I find it difficult to see this coming in at less than 20p unless it really has been sugar coated. But then, no matter how you look at it, it is huge. There are at least 2 porphyries and probably more (possibly around half a dozen if survey anomalies that have been hinted at are indeed due to metalisation). So, to put an edge of caution on my estimate I will predict a special dividend (not sp) of 18p.

The added benefit to this arrangement is, as indicated Mardel: there will not be a mad panic to offload shares at an elevated price. Also, we will be left with shares in a mining major and XTR just before what appears to be the start of a metals super cycle. Now we just need RC & Ascot to deliver....

Good for you - but it burst my bubble a little...
I did have a good average but it went up when I continued buying as the sp appreciated and thought that it would never see those prices again. Still, mid 3's which if this works out will be well worthwhile.

The only thing I would add to my last post is that with the sp the way it is now, well, I took the opportunity to have quite a big (for me) top up right at the end of Weds (I think it was) and the sp I got was 3.155p which seems to be the lowest price paid for the last 2 years! It has only increased since, so currently feeling smug but plenty of time to get egg on my face.

Steve, I think you and I are in the same boat.
Some of the frustration on this board lately seems to come from investors who wanted to make a quick buck and move on. That is your right of course but I'm happy to wait if it means an increased financial reward.

As I wasn't at the AGM I cannot say whether Johnswan or howezap is right. Although from the reports, I don't recall anybody commenting on Colin saying AA would not be interested - unless it was in terms of other companies may be better matches to the resource in its location.
But howezap's explanation makes a lot of sense regarding Colin's reticence to shout about BR in its latter stages. To be honest, I had forgotten (did I ever Know?) about AA's option to make an early move. Hope you're right mate.

Jazzoo, naughtygordie is using simple sarcasm. Not always easy to convey...

On other matters, I'm happy to sit and wait. Some of the delays are due to Ascot turning up and causing a delay in that it needed to be assessed. Happy with that. If that makes me a fool, fair enough. But it also make make me a lot of money, also happy with that.

Zero,
I would imagine that the conceptual pit model would incorporate the JORC assessment.
For a model to be created, the amount of Cu needs to be known and the level of confidence in that resource needs to be known so I can't see how the model can be published without a JORC associated with it.
Just my take on it.

"The only scenario I can think of is that CB doesn't want to make it too attractive to AA. It may be that XTR is looking for a 'no' from AA before conducting a phase 3 for infill and testing other geophysics targets before going to the wider market. That seems unlikely, but possible".

I suggested a few months ago that this could be the best financial outcome possible although it would take longer to come to a head!

NicetoMichu
Don't understand your post mate. Sure you're replying to the right poster ?

Steve,
yep, also a good point. No wealth has been created so maybe there is no tax.
Hopefully somebody can give a definitive answer.

"Dont forget we will have a tax bill from the Australian government."

Good point. Does anybody know what % this might be?

I think these very small share deals are coded messages between MM.

The volume will increase when the traders believe that good news is about to drop!

Unfortunately XTR does not seem to be getting its message out there and traders will use it as a stepping stone rather than the medium/long term asset that most of us LTHs are doing. Consequently the price drops when the time scale is anything longer than Jam at teatime...

What I find odd about Ascot is that it has some cracking grades and then there are large stretches with very little Cu/Au. Rc seems to be more consistent. I guess they all have their own personalities.

Devnull,
That looks to be a good price you got there. Would like to top us myself as soon as funds become available.

Jezoo,
The thing you have missed is that the troll is trying to wind us up!
Truth is - most here are happily awaiting good news and looking to the future with a smile on our faces.