Member Info for cyberduck

Also coming here from the TEF chat forum.

Big fan of BWY but the TEF board was always more active.

Currently holding 73% RDW, 15% BWY and 12% INL.

I adopt Strictly's system of switching between builders and am hoping RDW's recent relative outperformance in terms of SP continues so that I can switch to a more even holding of RDW and BWY. I must admit I don't like having most of my eggs in one basket and was caught out holding too high a percentage of TEF when they announced their profit warning and poor short term outlook.

Looking forward to reading posts here and hopefully joining in on occasion. It would be good if all ex-TEF forum contributors joined in as it was always a good venue to discuss housebuilders in general.

We had all the tough talking with May. I really don't see any difference, just more time being wasted and more damage being done to the economy.

The Speaker & Parliament stopped the 'no deal' scenario so why will it be different this time? Parliament hasn't changed.

Perhaps we need a referendum on whether we keep Northern Ireland as part of the UK? That might make them think twice. They want to be part of the UK but when the UK votes in a referendum they ignore the people's choice.

No deal is forever and I simply don't understand why the EU & the UK don't just say in regard to the deal that was on the table, that either side can give notice of termination. That might pacify those MPs who think it's the most important matter since WW2, Just accept the deal and then start negotiating.

Really we now need a periodic referendum over EU membership with the vote being so close. The EU need some sort of template mechanism for members to come in and out of the EU quickly.

We've just wasted more time with this stupid Tory party leader election.

>There was always the possibility that at some stage in the BTR journey institutions or partners will want the developer to have some skin in the development to share risks

Yes but giving institutions what they want may just show the balance of power.

After having all this interest from multiple potential partners and TEF being able to pick and choose who they partner with they now appear to have ones that are asking them to do something they're not very keen on doing.

Institutions may not be as desperate for TEF's services as previously thought. The unlimited fund for growth may not actually be there on the terms that TEF want.

It doesn't look like TEF are in a very strong negotiating position if they are having to do things they don't want to.

>Expressed some concerns about having to take some equity stakes in BTR and possible operational

Perhaps an indication of TEF's position in regard to the partnerships though and the Institutions' careful approach. It sounds like they don't want to take equity stakes and get involved in operational but don't have much choice. Not a good position to be in if that's the case.

From the "Strategy & Performance delivery update" presentation "Conversion begun and new agents being recruited to paying contracts".

Does this mean no more free trials? Branch numbers seem to be stuck at around 12,500. I'm wondering whether this is because they've stopped the free trials or whether they have at least for the time being peaked in terms of agents who are going to use them.

INL Directors Steve Wickes keeps buying their own shares. Yesterday it was announced he'd purchased at 66p along with another Director. I make it 3 purchases by Wickes since October 2018.

They have something like a 74p BVPS and are trading around 67-68p. They recently announced two huge (for them) successful planning applications and deliberately extended the year end so that both these deals are represented in the figures. Simon Thompson of Investors Chronicle reckons these could increase BV by over 40%.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2019/06/26/inland-homes-urban-village/

I could read the whole article yesterday but for some reason am blocked today.

majortom1,

How is selling your share of a company, presumably risking all your own money (I know Michael Bruce invested nearly everything he owned into PB) greedy?

If you put all your money into OTMP shares and the share price rises to more than you paid and you sell at a profit are you being greedy?

You do get the feeling listening to these politicians that they'll ruin the economy.

Teresa May already tried to see who would blink first, the UK or the EU, and the House Speaker & Parliament completely undermined that approach by taking over control.

Now they're talking about the EU backing down again. Can somebody please shake some sense into them. It's doing far more damage to the Country dragging this out than entering into a deal where either party can give notice to end the deal.

https://www.edp24.co.uk/business/norwich-estate-agents-view-of-purplebricks-after-national-firm-pulls-out-of-us-1-6145946

“Nick Taylor, chairman of the NDAEA, Norwich & District Association of Estate Agents, with 32 members, and MD of indepently-run Hadley Taylor, said: "Online-only estate agency is nothing new. Agents who provide a nationwide online service operating from a call-centre type operation have been around in various guises since the dawn of the internet.
"None of them have really worked because most consumers want more than they offer. When selling one's biggest financial asset, most sellers want to employ a fair degree of expertise and the truth is that £899 doesn't buy much expertise."”

https://www.hadleytaylor.com/houses-for-sale-norwich/

Either No properties or the search doesn’t work!

The incompetence of Traditional Agents seem to know no bounds (Not all of them of course but how can you tell the competent from the incompetent?).

PB have been accused of spin but let's face it the biggest spinners are traditional agents. I think a lot of them actually believe their own hype.

>The 8.3's are much more significant (at least IMO) as they disclose long positions, short positions and trades during the offer period of the beneficial owners

Thanks!

I keep getting email alerts relating to institutional trades. Think I've worked out that it's a requirement for intermediaries acting on the behalf of clients when there is an offer announced.

Just had one re. Peel Hunt regarding yesterday.

They bought 165,016 on behalf of clients between 351.30p and 356.75p and sold 173,013 between 353.25p and 356.5p.

Had two earlier regarding JPMorgan & Shore Capital.

If the deal is rejected by shareholders they will have some explaining to do, otherwise you may spot JDS at a Watford match some time in the future and could make the enquiry.

Comes across as a very honest and decent chap. Impossible to guess what's going on but surely they've discussed this with enough major shareholders to get this offer over the line?

A very simplistic guesstimate using the UK section from the 2019 annual report.

Never quite understood why the average revenue per instruction multiplied by the number of instructions doesn't quite match the revenue figure. For 2019 the revenue figure is 3.7% higher so I've used the same differential in the estimated revenue calculation for 2020.

Also assumed gross profit margin (63%), admin costs (£24.8M) and marketing costs (£26.7m) remain the same at 69%.

Have assumed the number of instructions decrease by 15% and the average revenue per instruction increases by 7%.

For 2019 the operating profit for the UK was £5.3M. Using the above for 2020 it will be just £126K.

Instr = 59408. Av. rev. per instr. £1330. Estimated stated revenue of approx £81.95M. Estimated Gross Profit of £51.6M and after marketing & admin costs an operating profit of approx £126K.

Just about a viable business on that basis. Do your own research.

onlyagame,

>Do you know which Estate Agents are still charging 2.5% ? The Agents I speak to charge between .75% and 1.5%

I used 1.5%. Clearly if Agents will charge you less then use those figures for comparison. But you'll also probably find there's a branch minimum so for lower priced properties the percentage is even higher. I was told recently by one Agent that if the asking price is £100K or less then the fee is £2400. They were advertising 1.5% + VAT. Others were suggesting a branch minimum of £1500.

>Good idea to take incompetent Estate Agents out of the equation, but also a good idea to take incompetent LPE's out of the equation too.

I agree, take the middleman out of the process as much as possible.

Interesting comment from https://thenegotiator.co.uk/purplebricks-twentyci/ “The fact that we’ve sold quickest for the second-year running is due to how we’ve digitalised the process, making communication between buyers and sellers much simpler.

You still can't get a lot of Agents to list properties over the weekend. On Sunday Zoopla showed that Agents listed a total of 511 properties. 107 of these were from PurpleBricks. It took a local Agent to me 6 days to list a property - getting the price wrong twice.

>Confirming that they dont even take the trouble themselves to find out how a potential sale is progressing

They've always said their post sales is reactive to problems rather than proactive. You can ask the buyer direct with PB and if things aren't progressing as you hoped then you can contact the post sales team and they'll look into it for you.

https://www.purplebricks.co.uk/terms/post-sale-charter

My solicitor refuses to take calls from Estate Agents so this idea that Estate Agents are on top of the post-sales process is nonsense. All they are doing is pestering Solicitors all the time because their clients don't know what's going on. With PB you can just message the buyer and if they don't respond get PB's post sales team to look into it.

PB £900. Traditional Agent £7500 on a £500K property. £3750 on a £250K one. You can save a lot of money if you stay on top of things yourself and take incompetent Estate Agents out of the equation. I'm sure they're not all incompetent but why take the risk?

Hopefully one day all the post sales side of things will be automated. The buyer/sellers can look online to find out where things are and who's holding things up.

My proxy suggesting down by about 18% on the number at the same point for the month of June to date last year.

3170 so far this month according to my proxy.

https://www.techadvisor.co.uk/feature/internet/best-online-estate-agent-3697838/

A bit more of a balanced view than the black or white that we usually see portrayed.

I think as time gores on we'll see more independent advise on which service is best for you but you never know, Hype is sometimes more of a factor.

My proxy indicates 1135 listings for the first 7 days of June compared to 1266 for the same period last year. That's down about 10%.

Just a proxy. Do your own research.

Not a recommendation that the shares are good or bad value :)

>The real revolutionaries are the no dealers

Jeremy Corbyn from Wikipedia...

"Ideologically, he identifies himself as a democratic socialist"

Democratic Socialism from Wikipedia....

"Democratic socialists believe that the systemic issues of capitalism can only be solved by replacing the capitalist economic system with socialism, i.e. by replacing private ownership with collective ownership of the means of production and extending democracy to the economic sphere"

>Just my luck when I thought my investment strategy to fund a very comfortable retirement

You can wave goodbye to your shares ISA if Jeremy gets elected.

OK thanks. The article I read wasn't clear. I thought there might have been earlier funding which he didn't partake in then paid a further £10m to increase his stake back up to around 30%.

In any case he's sitting pretty now there's a buyer out there. Still owning 24%, just enough to give Axel Springer control if they didn't buy the 5% sold yesterday.

Notwithstanding his other problems :)