Member Info for cyberduck

Pretty sure Woodford initially paid £7m for 30% of the company. Then I think later paid another £10m for shares as his stake was diluted. Could be wrong.

But I think he's done pretty well if he's selling at around £1 a share and possibly selling to raise some cash for his suspended fund.

My proxy indicates a record number of instructions for the calendar year with 301 yesterday which compares favourably with 248 on the last day of May last year. Because of the strong end to the month, month totals were actually down less than I previously forecast being 5817 about 8.3% down.

Just a proxy. Do your own research.

Not a recommendation that the shares are good value :)

My proxy indicates 278 listings for yesterday which compares favourably with 237 on the same day last year. Month totals are going to be down about 11% on last year by the looks of it.

Just a proxy. Do your own research.

Not a recommendation that the shares are good value :)

>I thought as a build to rent contract progresses profit is probably booked proportionally at each drawdown and not at the end -as in speculative build.

That's right. Profits are brought forward by switching current developments to BTR.

The opposite will apply if TEF change their policy in the future and rely more on open market.

I think 2020 was always going to be a poor year. Either that or the Analyst estimates way off.

£5m from 2019 moved into 2020 and £15m from City North moved into 2021. That's a net £10m drop but as you say profits from BTR brought forward into 2020 if land sale and pay as you go BTR payments due in the financial year.

https://www.housingtoday.co.uk/news/brexit-wont-affect-housing-demand-says-telford-homes-boss/5099768.article

My proxy indicates 237 for yesterday which compares favourably with 226 on the same day last year. Month totals are going to be down about 11% on last year by the looks of it.

Just a proxy. Do your own research.

Again a proxy. Oz LPE numbers down from 106 to 103 in the last 4 days. 109 on 12th May.

Thanks,

I was just wondering why she isn't in the list of LPEs. Does this exclude Territory Managers?

JVS,

I came across this lady who claims to be working for PB but doesn't appear in the list of of LPEs.https://www.purplebricks.com.au/search-local-expert?ref=header

https://www.linkedin.com/in/denise-lewis-78176b8a/?originalSubdomain=au

Do you know why?

£71m at the end of January when they put the breaks on in the USA. So significantly reduced.

A few more from bandit1...

This one's about Sain and me "Do you own shares here and if so why are you constantly talking the share down? Your mate cyberduck admits he has no shares here either. Odd don't you think that the top 2 negative posters don't own shares in PB? I appreciate that balance is important but constant negativity is not balance is it? Make your own mind up folks."

This one reserved just for me...

"You are such an idiot Cyberduck. Suggest that if you don't know what you are looking at or where to look or interpret the data don't bother!"

and

"Difficult to know exactly but we have seen pretty big swings every month since I have been invested here. Just looked at short positions under 0.5% which is still low so no evidence that is the reason but clearly there has been consistent selling. A fair amount of asset reallocation going on at the moment and higher PE stocks often jump around quite a lot. This is a strategic portfolio stock for my core holding ( long term hold) and I trade a float given volatility. FTSE looking sad too which is having an impact."

Who knows. Perhaps in 20 years the SP may be higher but paying attention to the data available would have meant he could have sold and then buy in when that data is looking favourable. These warnings were always on the cards. The only way they could have kept up the approach in Oz and the USA was if investors were prepared to invest more.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/19/uk/brexit-european-elections-luke-mcgee-analysis-intl-gbr/index.html

>You are right, Everytime I said something disparaging the SP moved further up I reckon someone might have made money out of that

I used to get worked up by your posts and try and balance things out by arguing with you all the time. In the end I came to the conclusion that what people say on these discussions doesn't affect the SP.

My little discussion with Jimmy_88 was quite amusing until he became offensive. He was trying to have a bet with me over something I hadn't even suggested. The fact that I would have won when the SP hit £2 even more amusing.
Both him and another guy bandit1 got very upset by both of us.

Here's one from bandit1 from back in March "Cyberduck - you have shown your true colors yet again. You don't own shares here yet you appear to spend a lot of time on here posting data often with a negative slant. You rarely post elsewhere which tells a story in itself. A significant investment has been made by a serious investment group who are very smart people, the Board has been enhanced by the addition of experienced NED's and the overseas performance is looking promising. Yet, all you want to highlight is a miss on trading. Now - that is why I have called you out in the past and why I believe you are an idiot. I spend only a few minutes each week on here as I am too busy with other stuff but enough to know what your objective is. Yes I am invested and when I decide to sell in 5,10 or 20 years time I expect I will regarded handsomely. You are now on filter as I find you tiresome."

I don't like seeing anybody losing money but if they start getting offensive when on the whole I'm just telling people to watch the data and reporting things occasionally but I'd rather these types lost than others.

Also after telling bandit1 to do some research of what was actualy going on he said "Cyberduck. Thanks I do my own research each and every time I invest so around 38 years and counting which I why I invested here funnily enough over a year ago. I must confess that for most of that time I have failed to have much respect for the old estate agent model but was far too busy with other business interests to do anything about it. Despite what some will say, this is an unregulated market and one in which virtually anyone could set up an agency and charge a big fat fee so when disrupters enter and shake it up there is a lot of kicking and screaming from current incumbents trying to protect their pensions but over time ( who knows how long) the PB/Yopa/eMoov and many others will be the new norm. That is why people invest here but as with all disrupters it will rise too quickly for some, hedge funds will short a bit then as it gains market traction it's success will reflect in financials and hey presto it will create new highs. Make sure you don't talk yourself out of investing in here again as I assume you maintain an interest to time your re-entry point rather than to save people from themselves although I have seen that before as we

There was an article on PIE the other day that CWD charge 2 years commission if you leave them.

I read on PIE a long time back too that even poor letting agents make money. The idea being that most lets are problem free and you add more landlords than leave.

PB said a while back that 8% of their revenue was from letting. They did buy the letting business from Venmore though.

I think PB have had about 5000 letting instructions in total and I don't think that includes the Venmore landlords unless they instructed again since the acquisition. Not as sure of that figure as my sales proxy figures though.

Do your own research.

>Thomas Cook posted a £1.5 billion loss.

Ouch!

I think PB will make a small profit in the UK for the 2019 FY. Just a guess. Don't quote me on it. :)

>Do you reckon that Bricks LPE turned to JV and asked him to provide that dubious looking kangaroo that appears in the bottom right hand corner .Marvellous !

Lost me there :)

>As JV points out it seems that there was no let up in marketing spend last year in UK

Well we don't know that but they have been splashing the cash in the past and let's face it that's why they are the only online agent that makes a profit (UK) or for arguments sake close to one.

It's very easy for all these "experts" (this guy in the article) to tell PB in hindsight how to do things but PB have brand recognition because of all the money they've spent on marketing. With marketing it's not about instant return. Anybody who has worked in marketing will tell you that when you advertise your new travel agency business in the paper among the recognised names people will think "I'm not phoning this guy I don't know if I can trust him.". 2 years later they've seen you've been around for a while and they'll phone you up.

So taking the UK in isolation, all that marketing is potentially money in the bank in the future.

Not that they don't have other problems, but if I was a long term investor like Woodford I'd be more interested in those measures of brand recognition than making a profit at this point. I wouldn't be happy subsidising Oz at this time because it was making a loss and didn't look like it would make a profit any time soon. I'd also be very concerned about the amount being spent on marketing in the USA given it doesn't look as though it is growing as fast as the UK at the same stage. I would be happy subsidising the UK though if it needs it.

Playing around with less spent on marketing in the UK is not a bad idea. Cutting costs too. It's all data that can be used to see what approach is best.

It's still an unproven model but they're still in the game. I reckon 210 instructions yesterday. 246 last year on the same date. Fewer LPEs. Not great but I wouldn't be closing up shop just yet.

Traditional Agents fighting back like in this article. Picking up on every problem but Is it the end for PB or just a blip?

Time will tell.

>Don't ignore the ability of the individual agent to add that certain something to get a property away.

Sain,

Nothing I've ever experienced. I'm sure there are good agents who put customers first but how do you find them? They're probably going out of business trying to compete with the bad agents.

There's certainly no motivation for them on average priced houses to get you more. The clock ticking on their sole agency agreement. If they aren't putting the customer first (who does?) then they won't risk losing their commission if they frighten the buyer off trying to get more.

Found that article https://www.which.co.uk/news/2017/02/estate-agents-who-overprice-properties-costs-sellers-4-3bn/

"We also compared how online-only agents fared against their more traditional high street counterparts. Our research suggests that properties sold through online agents sold on average 38 days faster than traditional agents. Furthermore, while 19% of properties sold by traditional agents were reduced by 5% or more, for online-only agents that figure was only 13%."

Fairly old now but I don't remember seeing anything more recent and I've heard from Agents that overvaluing is a big problem in the industry..

This competitive tension malarkey is something for Agents to discuss over dinner perhaps. When it comes to the day job and winning the instruction, in the main they're just trying to get you on their books and hope you reduce the price before you go elsewhere.

>https://life.spectator.co.uk/2019/05/should-you-use-an-estate-agent/

Just looks like an advert for traditional agents.

In discussions with a traditional agent with 40 years experience I was told that the biggest decider in winning instructions is the valuation and the fee.

There was some data from which? some time back which showed that sales prices were reduced by more with traditional agents.

So it's an interesting opinion, this price low and create competition idea, but it's not actually what happens. Not with the properties I've sold through traditional agents anyway and not according to the figures from which? And I haven't always gone with the highest valuation.

Lots of old arguments about the advantages of traditional agents but no advice on which one to pick when they come around and give you valuations differing by so much.

I sold with PurpleBricks and my neighbour listed with a traditional agent. I listed high (and knew it) and reduced a few times. My neighbour had to sack his first agent. I think we both got fair prices in the end. So, so much for competitive pricing :) A nice theory and I'm sure if there's plenty of demand out there then it works but the agent who quotes the highest valuation is more likely to win the instruction.

Steph,

Haven't Analysts forecast about 25p earnings for TEF for 2020?

That's a drop of about 36% in earnings so clearly things not going to plan.

A change of business model may well work out but it remains to be seen.

Still no go ahead for 20% of their pipeline at 9 Elms from what I understand.

Planning problems and delays at other significant developments.

My proxy reckons 239 instruction over the last 24 hours. 230 on the same day last year. Typically it's been slightly down on last year but there are fewer LPEs. I reckon a 6% increase in sales instruction for FY 2019 over 2018 in the UK but 2020 (just May) slightly down on 2019.

Obviously I don't know what the cost of sale, marketing & admin costs have been.

Average revenue per instruction has always increased and they said in their last results that there was plenty of potential here, selling other things to both sellers and buyers.

Crucial to keep an eye on the # of listings if the support has been taken away. Cost of sales will go down and possibly instructions if more LPEs leave.

Do your own research. This isn't a comment on whether the shares are worth 105p. Just advice to keep an eye on the available data.

Instruction levels in the UK aren't that bad. A little down on last year when there were more LPEs.

I haven't done any calculations but it's possible the two cases reported by Sain are an exception rather than typical. There are certainly a lot of experienced Estate Agents who work at PB (or there were the last time I read any of their CVs) and you'd be surprised if they'd be happy on what must have been a pretty low support amount.

Just speculating really but the ones who are complaining may well be the ones who can't command a decent wage elsewhere. Whilst being provided with support it might have been better than they could achieve elsewhere, Like you say, what have they been thinking for the last 12 months? That it's going to dramatically get better in their area any time soon?

Not nice for the two LPEs posting on PIE though. They need to find something else.

I suppose the question for shareholders is what percentage of LPEs will be in the same boat as the two posting on PIE.