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>Strictly....That is a very comforting post,lets hope Mr Market reads it.
Looks like it did.
What a day!
Just half an hour left and then I'll need a lie down. :)
Clearly yapped on for too long. My last sentence cut off and should bave been...
So a yield of about 3.8%.
PharmaGiles,
I've been reading your posts with interest. Both here and on the ADVFN site. Owned a small number of the shares since September 2006 when I thought it was a speculative investment with good potential and have been rather negligent in terms of how much attention I've paid.
Having looked at the weekend, If I count dividends my return has been 87% which is not that great really. You'd expect a lot more for a company that has transitioned from a high risk one to a much lower risk one. Great strides have been made in that time as you well know. Paying a cash dividend since 2014.
If you look at the SP performance in isolation over this time it is less than impressive but this doesn't take into account the dilution from rights issues and share dividends. Like I say the real gain since 2016 is about 86%. The All Share index return in the same period is about 45% but doesn't include dividends.
Over the weekend I did some historical analysis of SP trends too (just going back to 2012) and the average SP increase between the day after the final results announcement and 34 days earlier is 9.6%. In all but 1 of the years there was a SP rise.
I also noticed that according to the FT and other (not all) financial data websites it would appear that there was a decrease in eps year on year from 30/6/16 (eps of 7.63) and 30/6/17 (eps of 5.49). I've looked at all the quarterly figures from BXP and this looks like a mistake. I've compared 4 quarter eps growth based on the current year end as well as the original year end and in every 4 quarter period there has always been eps growth. Admittedly it was around 6% in 2016 but the average is 11.4% whether you look at a June year end or a December one. Also trading at a significant discount to BVPS which at 2018 year end was 61.82 paisa or 59p (today's exchange rate).
The other thing I looked at (which I see you have drawn attention to in earlier posts) is the discount to the quoted price on the Bangladesh exchange taking into account the prevailing exchange rates. I could only find prices going back to June 2017 but the price for BXP on quarterly announcement dates has in this period varied between 59% and 68% of the Bangladesh exchange’s price with an average 67%. Currently the SP is 46% of that on the Bangladesh exchange.
So in regard to the drop in SP I'm with you. I can't see any good reason for the market SP, but perhaps the mistakes in stated eps and the apparent (but again misleading) drop in SP over the years has had some effect on investors' appetite for the share? Reporting another low double figure growth in earnings should do it no harm if that is the case.
Like you, I'm expecting eps of around 7 paisa (or 6.7p) which would put the shares on a p/e of about 5.5 at the current SP. Seeing as they now pay cash dividends and they've maintained it at 1.25 paisa for 2 years when they had eps growth of 13.8% and 12.3% I'm expecting a dividend of 1.4 or 1.5 paisa. So a yield of abo
Correction...
A good relative performance from BWY this year though. At current price (delayed by 20 minutes ), since the close on the day of RDW's announcement, I have BWY up 8.5% and RDW up 5.38%.
I've updated the comparison of BWY & RDW SP performance between results announcements to add back in the RDW dividend.
As you would probably expect this reduces the average gain of BWY's SP during this period of time and it now comes to 0.78%.
Not the biggest sample of data being only 1999 to 2018 and at just 0.78% it doesn't really present a compelling argument to switch between RDW on the day of RDW's results announcement (based on the closing price).
A good relative performance from BWY this year though. At closing price yesterday, since the close on the day of RDW's announcement, I have BWY up 8.7% and RDW up 1.88%.
Strictly,
Just catching up...
>That looks like the same chart three times...
Sorry. There are 5 tabs for the spreadsheet now and I thought you could get a link for each tab but apparently you can't.
Just realised my comparison doesn't account for RDW going ex-div so the apparent 2.1% better performance following RDW's results announcement by BWY on average is wrong. I'll see if there's any easy way of finding the final dividend amounts for RDW going back to 1999.
The tab for this comparison is labeled "RDW Announcement".
The one relating to BWY's average PBV is labeled "BWY average PBV".
>As you know, I would have Bellway's long term average PBV at around 1.5 rather than 1.35.
Perhaps you could take a look at my calculation and see where you think I am wrong? Using the data and SP values in your spreadsheet "Bellway track record" I come to an average of 1.39. This of course is just looking at it from a single yearly SP and BV. Using monthly price data from Google and estimating BV's on a monthly basis I get 1.30 as the average PBV. I think you would expect it to be higher when comparing with start of year BV but that I think is less useful if we're looking at current BV's and determining where the current BV stands in relation to the long term average.
I was out yesterday but added a 4th tab before going out labeled "SP performance comparison" which is quite useful I think as you can look at SP performance for RDW, BWY & CRST since a given date or alternatively over the last number of days. Again this fails to take account of dividend payments so is a work in progress.
Strictly/Nige,
Now that I've used GoogleSheets to provide historical price data for the first time I've quickly spent a bit more time on a couple of other topics of interest...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RfMixz6ptYXtN_EtFg6v5Vf-jelcqRjJ52uLsGaAEOc/edit?usp=sharing
This one compares BWY & RDW share price movement from the day of RDW's results rather than October 1st....
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RfMixz6ptYXtN_EtFg6v5Vf-jelcqRjJ52uLsGaAEOc/edit?usp=sharing
So an average 2.1% better performance from BWY. Taken together with the data from 1st October you would have to say that the relative gain must be predominantly in the period between RDW's results announcement and 1st October so if there was no variance to the mean it might be a bit late to switch on this evidence.
If you were the type who doesn't like betting against the averages you would have to conclude though that cash is a better investment than both RDW & BWY during this period.
The other analysis is one of BWY's average PBV since July 1988 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RfMixz6ptYXtN_EtFg6v5Vf-jelcqRjJ52uLsGaAEOc/edit?usp=sharing
This comes out at 1.3 which is actually lower than what we have now which I estimate as 1.35. The variance from this 1.3 is pretty small too which means that although there are peaks & troughs it's more normal to be close to the mean than away from it.
There could be some mistakes so let me know if there is as this is significantly lower than the perception that average PBV is 1.5 for the sector. I've taken price data on a monthly basis and estimated BV on a monthly basis too (by dividing the end of year book value into 12 and apportioning one twelfth to each month). This might explain the difference to the 1.5 average for the sector which might be comparing prices to the start of year book values.
Food for thought though.
>Only thing I see is the banking crisis (which was far worse than any of prev slumps) and no other slumps since 1994 ie 25 years.
Agreed but you can't just dismiss that period as an anomaly because it was a reaction to the earlier period and the period following the slump was no doubt a reaction to it. Better to look at averages for as long a period as you have data in the hope that the average is a representation of what you can expect in the norm.
Alternatively look at all the variables and justify any variation from the mean. Or if that's too complicated just admit that we can't rely on historical data to predict what's going to happen next although we all have our theories :)
All in all though, even if the average PBV is 1.3 for BWY, the fact that they are currently at about 1.35 makes it a reasonable time to jump into the sector. I first started dipping my toes when the PBV was between 1.68 and 1.9 which in hindsight was probably a mistake. A good job I was careful and I was was only dipping my toes.
Forgot to mention.
For the years 1994 to 1998 inclusive I didn't know the date of BWY's announcement so the data for those years is up until 12th October.
A little bit of research to share.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RfMixz6ptYXtN_EtFg6v5Vf-jelcqRjJ52uLsGaAEOc/edit?usp=sharing
Not a large sample. Only going back to 1994 which appears to be the earliest date for SP data from Google for BWY & RDW.
This is for the period from 1st October to the eve of BWY's announcement.
No discernible pattern as far as I can see.
Offered in good faith - maybe mistakes. If anybody spots anything let me know.
PurpleBricks might be struggling at the moment and will be lucky to break even in the UK unless they've cut outgoings considerably but does Thomas Cook's failure suggest there is a long term future?
https://www.ft.com/content/18c6356f-d806-3fef-9ff7-29fb80a343c7
"its network of more than 500 high street branches, something that once offered enviable economies of scale and easy access to customers —instead became a draining financial burden."
From PIE yesterday https://propertyindustryeye.com/zoopla-says-it-expects-more-branch-closures-in-really-tough-environment-for-agents/ "Zoopla says it expects more branch closures in ‘really tough environment for agents'"
I can remember 100% mortgages in 2002.
I've got friends working for the banks and they have all sorts of procedures in place to make sure things don't go the same way.
Something to keep an eye on though as greed & stupidity certainly the cause of the 2007 financial crisis. Mortgage companies in the USA were phoning people up who owned a home asking them if they wanted to buy another one!
https://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/public-accounts-committee/news-parliament-2017/help-to-buy-report-published-17-19/
The original report from Parliament.
>Yes, having been let down by Crest, Telford and now recently Redrow this year thus far, let's hope Bellway doesn't make it a full hand of disappointments on 15th October when their full time whistle is due to be blown
This will of course depend on expectations but BWY have already pretty much told us what to expect in their post year end trading update. This of course wouldn't stop the market from being shocked somehow if they are bang on consensus :)
"Profit before tax is expected to be in line with current market estimates"
This is based on "consensus profit before tax of £664 million, calculated as an average of estimates on Reuter’s and Bloomberg as at 7 August 2019."
That's about 3.5% growth on 2018 PBT. Their EPS growth tends to be pretty similar to PBT growth (in recent years at least) so not as spectacular as RDW's 8% EPS growth but is a very fine ROE of around 21% if earnings do get to 438p.
What do you have penciled in for BWY? Are you more optimistic than around 21% ROE? I have 440p penciled in.
>September not looking so hot either on the instruction front .They appear to be going backwards
Yes, my proxy has 2024 instructions versus 2794 at the same time in September 2018.
>Sounds like he is under investigation by HMRC for more than one issue !
Sain,
Nothing to suggest that he's under investigation for AML from what he said yesterday.
Not even convinced this 'ohmygod' is an LPE.
9th April: "If they are setting targets then is this not an IR35 issue which I understand they are being investigated for currently?"
So somewhat unsure if he's and LPE and whether he's being investigated 6 months ago for IR35.
15th April: "I hear their AML fine is a whopper!"
And yesterday "Chris, I am currently a territory owner at PB and I am being investigated by HMRC under IR35, this has been going on for over a year now. I understand there are 6 of us being investigated."
Shenanigans from one of the anonymous idiots on PIE or legitimate LPE?
https://businessadvice.co.uk/tax-and-admin/efficiency/does-ir35-mean-self-employed-staff-are-a-risk-to-your-business/
There are tax advisers advising on how companies can avoid getting themselves in a mess with IR35. Assuming PB have done so then there may be some LPEs who end up paying some more tax if they didn't take a salary but paid out dividends to themselves and their partners.
IR35 isn't AML.
Steph,
Are you not concerned that there could be an election which becomes mainly about Brexit? Boris may not stand up to scrutiny but I think a lot of people will like him. Talking tough about Europe & the Labour party blocking Brexit.
The Tories without the MPs who have had the whip withdrawn and who have resigned, along with support from the Brexit party may form a majority and be able to push through a 'no deal'?
The Tories without the
>Barratt are paying out nearly two thirds of earnings as dividend against only one third paid by Redrow.... this, IMO, is a serious shortcoming for Barratt.
RDW did of course in the 2019 FY pay out an extra 30p by way a 'B' share issue and sale which classed as a capital gain for shareholders. This effectively meant they also distributed about two thirds of their earnings. It was paid in H2 in the 2019 FY and certainly not something they have to do every year.
Not that this deflects from the point you (Strictly) make in regard to the difference in PBVs for the two companies.
Looking forward to RDW results tomorrow but hard to please the market as shown today.
>£899 with no certainty of selling vs free - why not give it a go?
Yes, it does sound like a 'no brainer' but I haven't seen any HouseSimple signs popping up locally. There's always been a differentiation between PB & the rest of the onliners and that is the brand recognition brought on by the millions spent on TV advertising. Never really see anything other than PB around where I am.
The 'catches' with HouseSimple are a 6 month tie-in with 3 as sole agent and you have to display a sign.
Harder to win instructions for PB. Flew under the radar somewhat at first but traditional agents now well versed in putting doubt in the minds of sellers.
When I listed an investment property recently I mentioned I had spoken to HouseSimple and told the Agent they were charging zero commission and his first comment was "what's the catch?" and when I said there was a 3 month tie-in period for sole agency followed by another 3 months as joint agent he added "I don't know about you but in my experience things that are free aren't very good".
Offering pay on completion a worthwhile approach in my opinion. At least it takes away one of the doubts being cast by their competition and in tougher markets homeowners are more likely to want it.
Remains to be seen how the strain on traditional agents of having to compete price-wise will play out.
Incidentally for various reasons I won't go into, i listed with the traditional agent casting doubt on what you get from HouseSimple and it took them 3 attempts and 6 days to get the price right. Staggering that in this day and age it takes a 2 day turnaround to change the particulars.