RE: Corbyn’s state generics manufacturer7 Oct 2019 13:32
PharmaGiles,
I've been reading your posts with interest. Both here and on the ADVFN site. Owned a small number of the shares since September 2006 when I thought it was a speculative investment with good potential and have been rather negligent in terms of how much attention I've paid.
Having looked at the weekend, If I count dividends my return has been 87% which is not that great really. You'd expect a lot more for a company that has transitioned from a high risk one to a much lower risk one. Great strides have been made in that time as you well know. Paying a cash dividend since 2014.
If you look at the SP performance in isolation over this time it is less than impressive but this doesn't take into account the dilution from rights issues and share dividends. Like I say the real gain since 2016 is about 86%. The All Share index return in the same period is about 45% but doesn't include dividends.
Over the weekend I did some historical analysis of SP trends too (just going back to 2012) and the average SP increase between the day after the final results announcement and 34 days earlier is 9.6%. In all but 1 of the years there was a SP rise.
I also noticed that according to the FT and other (not all) financial data websites it would appear that there was a decrease in eps year on year from 30/6/16 (eps of 7.63) and 30/6/17 (eps of 5.49). I've looked at all the quarterly figures from BXP and this looks like a mistake. I've compared 4 quarter eps growth based on the current year end as well as the original year end and in every 4 quarter period there has always been eps growth. Admittedly it was around 6% in 2016 but the average is 11.4% whether you look at a June year end or a December one. Also trading at a significant discount to BVPS which at 2018 year end was 61.82 paisa or 59p (today's exchange rate).
The other thing I looked at (which I see you have drawn attention to in earlier posts) is the discount to the quoted price on the Bangladesh exchange taking into account the prevailing exchange rates. I could only find prices going back to June 2017 but the price for BXP on quarterly announcement dates has in this period varied between 59% and 68% of the Bangladesh exchange’s price with an average 67%. Currently the SP is 46% of that on the Bangladesh exchange.
So in regard to the drop in SP I'm with you. I can't see any good reason for the market SP, but perhaps the mistakes in stated eps and the apparent (but again misleading) drop in SP over the years has had some effect on investors' appetite for the share? Reporting another low double figure growth in earnings should do it no harm if that is the case.
Like you, I'm expecting eps of around 7 paisa (or 6.7p) which would put the shares on a p/e of about 5.5 at the current SP. Seeing as they now pay cash dividends and they've maintained it at 1.25 paisa for 2 years when they had eps growth of 13.8% and 12.3% I'm expecting a dividend of 1.4 or 1.5 paisa. So a yield of abo
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