Member Info for cyberduck

Cameco (CCJ) up 4.72%
Dension (DNN) up 2.42%
Nexgen (NXE) up 3.84%
Energy Fuels (UUUU) up 2.82%

Looking like another strong day.

Sprott announcing the application to the NYSE could be the catalyst that move things upwards. The fact they haven't yet might be the reason for the recent SPUT unit price dropping.

>Anyone know what has been YCA biggest discount to NAV?

Since I've been following the Uranium sector (April 2020) the biggest discount to NAV from memory was over 20%. They were buying their own shares in the market last year. A quick look at a couple of the quarterly updates suggest it was 22% on 17th April 2020.

Completely different situation now though with Sprott able to buy on a daily basis on the right conditions. YCA should loosely track the spot price more closely now that Uranium is in the news.

This looks similar to what happened in the last U3O8 bull market when the spot price was driven to around $140 a pound in the main by financial speculators.

I think the 280,000 Sprott Customers sense blood and together with social media squeezers will drive the U3O8 spot price up to $180 (inflation adjusted). As already stated Sprott only spent about $5M yesterday and the spot price rose about 8%! In the last bull run there was no supply deficit so it could go even higher than $200 a pound.

Just my thoughts. Very speculative.

https://www.thedailystar.net/frontpage/news/beximco-serum-talks-make-oxford-vaccines-here-2087673

Correction.

That's an increase for the first 3 quarters, not Q3.

https://www.dhakatribune.com/business/stock/2021/04/29/beximco-pharma-reports-41-profit-in-march-for-fy21

Going to start selling 3 million does a month privately. Bought at $8 and sold at $13.27.

https://en.prothomalo.com/bangladesh/beximco-likely-to-start-private-sales-of-vaccine-next-month-at-tk-1125-per-dose

Dhaka closed at 209.5 with an exchange rate of 111.07 that means it's trading at 188p over there.

There is usually a discount and an average figure I use is 33%. At 100p here in the UK the discount now over 50%. If the UK shares trended to norm. you would expect a UK share price of over 120p.

Let's see what happens when the UK market opens.

Another Beximco produced drug effective in treatment of COVID-19

https://www.thedailystar.net/city/news/ivermectin-effective-treating-mild-covid-19-2007697

No mention of 'final offer' from Alchemy.

Also interesting they state "Alchemy understands that Countrywide's shareholders are divided between those with a firmly held desire to remain a shareholder and are opposed to a sale, and those who wish to accept an opportunity to realise their holdings."

but don't say what camp each of the major shareholders they list falls into. So it's far from certain that the 45% will stay at 45% even if a small increase is offered from Connells.

Don't think this is over unless Connells drops out.

>I think you have the 50:1 consolidation the wrong way around.

Not the wrong way round but it looks like the SP I used was wrong. I used Google SP graph which I assumed was adjusted for the 50:1 stock consolidation. But this doesn't look right if the SP was around 600p when Alison Platt was appointed and I've just checked an old SP graph pre-consolidation and in January 2014 the SP was close to 700p and that's the max. it got to so 600p looks right.

So going back to what I was saying re. comparing with LSL, using the same graph I've just found I think the CWD SP back in Sept. 2013 was about 575p (very approx.). So about 28750p when taking the consolidation into account and comparing with today's 228p. Google has a SP of 10684p for Sept. 2013 for some reason but let's forget Google. Either way the point remains but is even more massive a difference if we use 28750p instead of 10684p for CWD when LSL's SP was at a peak.

I suppose CWD could have been massively overvalued back then but you'd expect LSL to have been too if that was the case. Or LSL could be massively overvalued now I suppose. It just seems too big a difference though and I can't make sense of it.

I’m not prepared to put too much time into comparing LSL & CWD because understanding CWD is hard enough when you start looking at the accounts over a number of years.

Taking a very simplistic approach and look back at when LSL’s SP was at a peak – Sept 2013. At that time LSL were priced at just over twice what they’re priced at now. Compare that to CWD at the same time and they were priced at 10684p back then (so about 43 times higher back then than now) when you take account of the 50:1 consolidation of shares (the actual SP back then was really 213p but there were 50 times more shares than there are now approximately)

So unless there are things that can explain such a massive difference you’d have to assume there’s massive upside potential from CWD once they are 'fixed'. No reason why they can’t be run as well as Connells & LSL from my limited understanding of their business.

Thoughts anybody?

Don't really know much about CWD.

How would a fixed CWD compare with LSL in value?

LSL currently valued by the market at about £256m and CWD at about £116m.

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/astra-oxford-shot-is-key-to-escaping-covid-19-pandemic-for-many-nations-11606025432093.html

"AstraZeneca reached an agreement to supply the initiative, while a collaboration including the Serum Institute of India agreed to accelerate the production of Astra or Novavax shots for low- and middle-income nations, priced at a maximum of $3 per dose, with an option to secure more."

I wonder if BXP will benefit from its current delivery channels to other low and middle income countries. The Serum Institute may well have its own channels but maybe a piece of the pie for BXP?

News before Xmas?

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54993652

Thanks PG.

Impressive results today with £34m profit after tax. Pure speculation but my gut feeling is the vaccine will be made available - there doesn't seem to be any point entering into the agreement if the signs weren't promising - then the lions portion of $30m added to the profit would be pretty significant and that might only be the start.

Maybe getting a bit ahead of myself :)

Hi Pharma G.

What are your thoughts on potential profitability with a $1 vaccine.

I read that they are receiving 30 million doses. So potential income of $30m as things stand.

Hi Pharma,

What are your thoughts regarding profit here? Of course there's no guarantee the vaccine will work but is a $1 vaccine profitable?

I read they are being provided with 30 million doses
http://m.thedailynewnation.com/news/268001/bangladesh-signs-deal-to-buy-30mn-doses-of-promising-coronavirus-vaccine

So potential added turnover of $30m as things stand.

I suppose if the SP wasn't at much of a premium then small investors might not take up the offer which would leave more for the institutions. It doesn't take much volume in the market to move the SP. Those points playing on my mind :)

Hoskings buying significant amounts recently when the market price higher than it is now. I've also just had notification that they transitioned from 13.02% to 14.08% on the 29th October. Some delay there.

I think I'll take up the offer but it's certainly a hard situation to read.