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>The first few months of H2 were slow Hi sain@vision, What do you mean by slow? How have you obtained your figures? I went through the thread and it looks like the way figures were being calculated until recently was by comparing the numbers on the market with the previous months. This method is flawed as the number of removals cannot be determined.

Just wanted to put the record straight. I commented earlier "However it looks like there were several months last year which weren't in line with forecasts.". I'm now not convinced of this. I was using information being posted on this discussion board and one over on ADFN and I'm no longer convinced it was accurate.

>the numbers are looking good. The last 7 days appear to be in line with forecasts by Hardman & Co in their September analysis. However it looks like there were several months last year which weren't in line with forecasts. If you rely on Hardman & Co's analysis then £2.00 would appear to be overvalued. I've taken profits on half my holding.

>Where are you getting your figures? Found figures in Zoopla. According to them 881 listings from 1st to 6th February. So indeed it looks likely that over 1000 will be achieved in 7 days.

ToTheFuture, Where are you getting your figures? I've been trying to do a bit of research and have been using home.co.uk to provide data. In the first 5 days they are saying there have been 623 listings hxxp://www.home.co.uk/search/results.htm?agent=920144&high=&low=&minbeds=&maxbeds=&detached=true&semi=true&terraced=true&flat=true&sort=FOUND_DESC&found_since=20170202&inc_sold=1&loose=1&showmap=0 I'm also looking daily at Rightmove using a sample of the Country and this suggests to me that there were approx. 120 listings in the last 24 hours. From the forecast by Hardman & Co which gave a fair value of £2.00 per share the expected listings for the current financial year is 41000 and ignoring seasonal factors you would expect the distribution over the year to show that the later months be a lot more than at the beginning of the year. I'd be looking for around the 4000 mark at this point but my findings suggest this isn't being achieved.

>Cyber -Yes instructions Thanks sain@vision. I was just going to post that I had found the projections in an analysis by Hardman & Co written in September last year. They were suggesting a target price of around £2.00 per share.

>it looks as if they they might cross the 4,000 barrier which is only a whisker off the monthly forecast for next financial year of 4.700pcm Can anybody tell me the PB forecasts? 4,700 pcm. Is this 4700 instructions?

sain@vision, PB do appear to know the difference as they do have listings labelled "under offer" but admittedly not in the Bournemouth local. So looking at the same sample. If I include "under offer" listings Athertons increases to 13 of 32 the others remain the same.

Just done a little bit of research on PB. Apparently they first rolled out their offering on the South Coast so assuming this is the area with most exposure to their brand I had a look at PB's offerings within a 5 mile radius. 73 of 122 are sold subject to contract (SSTC) Then I had a look at Agents on Rightmove and looked at the figures for the first 4 in Bournemouth. Abbey 4 of 8 SSTC Anderson Reid 3 of 22 SSTC Athertons 6 of 32 SSTC Austin & Wyatt 23 of 53 SSTC This reinforces my opinion that PB will convert at least as many listings to sales as other agents. The number of conversions from listings to sales will be the ultimate measure of PB's business plan. I'm very happy with what I'm seeing.

Thanks sain@vision. Thanks for those 2 links. I'll stick to independent opinion and my own before those of people who would want PB to fail.. You would pretty much expect those type of comments from the Australian Estate Agent industry. Perhaps Australians are happy with their Estate Agents but I doubt it.

Thanks sain@vision, I found that IC buy recommendation https://www.ft.com/content/1afe5620-bbdb-11e6-8b45-b8b81dd5d080 If PB are trying to deceive then you would have to suspect the owners think they are going to be able to drive the share price up and then be able to dump their shares. I don't get the feeling that is what they are about. I like the way they have moved into Australia with what looks like a different business model. So they're looking for opportunities. I think in the UK we are ready for PB. That's my opinion based on a background in internet marketing and having met their local expert and listed my property with them. You just have to look at rightmove to see how many people use the internet for finding properties. There were 395 views of my advert in one day. I've had no viewings booked yet but the market is quiet and I'm listed at way more than I'm prepared to accept. As for the expensive advertising. if the model is successful you would expect this to continue until word of mouth takes over and people keep seeing the signs outside houses. One other

There's no doubt PB is a high risk investment but it does have buy ratings from Brokers and I seem to remember Investors Chronicle giving it a buy rating but don't recall what price it was at or what price they were predicting. How risky is PB? Well it's not just pure speculation because there have presumably been estimates of growth given to investors and these must have been achieved so far because there have been announcements from the company and if there was anything of concern the shares would have taken a nosedive. Looking at the interim results they do appear to have made a profit from the UK business. At this stage though you wouldn't really be too obsessed with profit. If there is a viable growth model then you would want income spent on expanding the business. Again, this seems to be what is happening when you look at the revenue and local expert growth. There are also some figures on sales completions £2.589bn of property in the first half compared to £2.766bn for the whole of the previous year. So yes, there's a lot of risk but the brokers estimates underpin that risk to some extent in my eyes. Even if you are risk averse you can still own these shares and spread the risk by investing in a number of high risk/reward companies.

It might not have been moneysupermarket but it was certainly a .com owner/investor because internet marketing was the context.

CharlieR, The agent mentioned PB's plans only briefly. It wasn't something he went into any great detail on. He mentioned another area of the world too but don't recall which one it was. You have to bear in mind that this is something he has been told but it's not necessarily the case. I used to work for a small company and they were always coming up with big ideas. One thing I do know is that Realtors in the U.S. charge around 5% and in my experience don't negotiate too much if at all. If just a small percentage of this market was achieved it would be huge and as you say first mover advantage can position you for the long term. Who knows whether the U.S. is ready for this. You probably already know this but one other thing that he mentioned, when I told him my background was in internet marketing, was that one of the investors or owners of moneysupermarket had something to do with them (PB).

Just wanted to add my own experience with PB. I'm currently selling my house with them and after speaking with their expert I bought some shares. Firstly, my experience with high street agents over the years has been poor. They send an expert around to value your home and tend to overvalue it so you will list with them. That's the last contact you have with an expert. You are then left wondering why, after a couple of months you have had no viewings. You phone up the agent and speak to a non-expert who suggests you reduce the price. Not a good start, you've been given a value by an expert and an non-expert is telling you to reduce it. The expert from PB told me to not get too hung up on the listing price. He'd be reviewing the data every week and would discuss the way ahead on a weekly basis. This was the main reason I listed with them. They are fully tuned to the data being provided to them and explained their strategy. My background is in internet marketing and many of the things he said in regard to how they manage your advert ticked boxes. I could see that the traditional way was flawed. Their expert also told me that he had shares and told me the price target he'd been provided with. I had no idea about the fundamentals but it seemed ridiculously high to me compared to the price they were trading at and I imagine this keeps their local experts motivated. He mentioned plans for Australia & the USA and since have noticed that they have had a good start in Australia. As mentioned, I have no idea on the fundamentals and realise I'm taking a risk in investing but I do have experience with small company shares and the fact there was an IPO not too far back in a market that doesn't appear to be overheated gives me some reassurance as to value.