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On balance i do believe there is more oil in Athena than TRAP's cautious estimate but on a statistical basis even with a . larger recoverable it still appears PMg are paying more per barrel than TRAP . Another problem is see is that, although just 1.1p extra per share does not seem excessive, the problem is Cornhill want 6p in CASH. I can not see PMG being able to pay that. Please see this copied extract ; Speaking for Cornhill rather than the consortium, Mr Dziubinski said: "On behalf of Cornhill clients we think 6p cash would be fair." A bid at that level would value Lochard at around £18m

The £13.81 should read 13.43 doh!

Good morning all. Reviewing my previous LHD calculations i believe i completely misunderstood the loan and interest situation. Its not helped by reports , at one moment, refering to the debt repayment as a royalty which stops being paid if the oil stops; and then at the same time the accounts refering to it as loan of which they have shaved off $1.05 million from the capital owed. Where i think have gone wrong in the numbers is that "royalty" appears to be paid from the gross income before costs. That makes a huge difference to the numbers and was a terrible deal to agree to imo. Well thats history. On the price per barrel figures it still appears to me that the PMG bid is not unreasonable. TRAP Oil . .paid £31.8 million ,not 34.5 as often still reported There was a renegoiating down in the final price paid. TRAP paid on the basis of their belief Athena had 14.3 million barrels recoverable. That works out at £14.82 per barrel for TRAPS 15% share (2.145 million barrels). Prior to the PMG bid it appears 3.5 million barrels have been extracted. So 14.3 minus 3.5 leaves 10.8 million barrels. So LHD share is 10% or 1.08 million barrels. PMG offering £14.5m divided by 1.08 gives a per barrel cost of £13.81. But here,s where it gets complicated; LHD are paying 20% royalty and i think they will for at least another year ; followed by %5. I believe that the final per barrel figure PMG are offering is more than TRAP oils £14.82. If LHD just had to pay 20% for one year followed by 5% then i reckon they lose the value of 106,500 barrels off their 1.08 million leaving 975,000 to them; divided into £14.5 gives £14.85 per barrel. I must appologise for my prevoius errors.

good morning possumbelly. You are confusing seperate issues; the %50 and %20 production cost and the Zeus loan. I can only suggest you look at the accounts. The $14 zeus loan was taken out to developt he Athena field. Because it was considerd high risk they were charged 84% interest. look at the accounts and the annex. They declare they had to pay in the 6 months a staggering $5.7 million in additiont to there other costs. why do you think that in the first 5 months of this year LHD had just £196k? and actually had to go to hendersons cap in hand borrowing $1.7 million. So, after 5 months of income they ended up owing another $1.5 million. Everyone goes on about the %50 and %20 but forget the buried Zeus loan. its shown in the accounts liabilites.THey have only managed to shave off $1.05 million of the principal.

Good morning sstarski. I tried to flatter the LHD numbers as much as i could. They will NOT have the majority of their debt paid off. To get to £10 million at end of 2014 means they have left the Zeus loan capital payable at 84% interest untouched. The priority must be to actually use as much cash generated to attack the capital of the loan. The loan was $14 million. LHD only manged to shave off $1.05 million of the principal. Its costing about $900k per month. LHD is a basket case. Its unbelivable when you look back at a whole year of production from May 2012 to May 2013 when they turned oil revenues of approximately $33 million USD into further debt of $1 million. Yes, they owed more money than when they started. The good news is they are about to drop from %50 production cost to %20 but the figures speak for themselves about £500 k from now on.

As a double check i have done some other calculations. Lets completly ignore the %84. We know that at the begining of the year LHD had $170k cash. Let us assume they received $67.16 per barrel after production . let us assume a modest 1000 barrels a day time 30 times $67.16 times %50 "production "cost. Gives us $1.0074 million per month. times by 5 for months to End May we should have %5.037 million plus $170k equals $5.207 million. In February the last Senergy payment was made; $2.5 million. So at end of May we ought to have $2.707 Million. We actually had £196k and of course in January we Borrowed another £1.1 million ($1.7). So why arent we sitting on $4.4 million ? Because we were payin massive 84% interest on the Zeus loan. It all fits. Fives into 4.4 million is $880,000 which went in interest; hence no money. On the basis that LHD is receiving now no more than £550,000 per month i reckon at year end after repaying the $1.7 million LHD will have possibly £3 million in the bank or 1p per share. At end of 2014 i reckon that LHD will be sitting on £10 million or around 3.5p per share; thats assuming no expensive workovers or oil price fall. Still think PMG offer is poor. i don't.

Hi, I would have thought those wells were a lot lot more than $22 million. Anyway , as per earnings per share. THe headline figure was 2.2 US cents. Hugely flattered by a tax credit. Strip that out a nd you are left with 0.54 US cents per share

For clarification ; Zeus borrowed $14 million to develop Athena. It was c onsidered high risk and they had to pay %84 interest. In the last accounts 31.12.2012 LHD only managed to reduce the capital by $1.05m illion. My estimate of the effective income reduction should be marginally lower. LHD are struggling to get this crippler off their backs. PMG would help a lot. Guys , if you do not accept the offer you will lose those licenses and be left with a lot less money coming in than some suggest. YEars to wait for any chance of any dividends and liability to possible expensive athena works to boot. I see the SP sub 4p for a long time if the bid fails. There's no-one else out there or you would have heard by now.

The PMG offer is generous. LHD is a financial disaster zone. Please read the 31.12.2012 half yearly report to understand how arter months of full production LHD started the year with just $170 THOUSAND USD and had to take out another loan. Where did all the money go? How could $18.996 million disappear? That was the income for the period from 207006 barrels. So the headline per barrel figure is $91.76 (remember oil price was higher then too!) But there are production costs which were $5.092 million. Thats $24.60 you have to deduct. So now we have just $67.16 per barrel. Here's where the real pain starts; the 50% "production cost" (really a debt repayment ) kicks you in the nuts listed in the accounts apparently as "amortisation". That was $6.993 million. Per barrel thats another $33.78 dollars per barrel off $67.16. So we are now down to $33.38 per barrel. The bad news does not apparently end there. Lurking away in the appendix 4d is mention of $5.7 million of interest paid on financial liabilities . This appears to be that 84% interest matter.. Do not understand how , but in the main report this is listed as $5.479 million. Right divide that into the oil numbers and we have another $27.53 dollars od deduction per barrel. So it appears LHD were left with $5.84 per barrel. The report indicates LHD had finance income of $2.813 million and admin costs of $1.882 million . There are other small numbers which would complicate the piece but LHD reported a profit before tax of $1.614 million on sales income of almost $19 million!!!!!!.Their tax adjusted profit figures were flattered by a tax credit of $4.589 million. Total profit for the year $6.203 million. I still struggle to fully understand where the money went. Must have been Senergy payments. So , LHD will soon be dropping from %50 to %20 "production cost". Lets keep this simple and assume high production of 1100 barrels to LHD times 30 days equals 33,000. Lets assume they are still getting the high oil price and production cost per barrel remains $24.60. So at the old $6716 per barrel we get monthly income of $2.216 million . Deduct 20% and we have $1.773 million. Then we have the huge 84% interest to take off and if its at the same rate of $27.53 per barrel the monthly income drops by $908,490 leaving $791, 510 per month or £520,946 GBP per month. I may be completly off the mark here with my numbers but LHD are not getting anything like $3million a month. Anyone else want to play with the numbers?

Looks like some more drilling excitement to come this year as it appears Caithness has the rig to drill Forse. http://www.energyvoice.com/2013/02/explorer-hoping-to-test-oil-prospect-from-land/

Not less than 20p. Look at what was paid at launch and then there were those that paid 21p in the placing.

Hi Drainpipe. The Caithness deal is very good. We pay just £1. ONE WHOLE POUND for 20%. Even i could afford that

I expect an ns very soon, maybe tomorrow regarding the two majors outlining their plans. Surprises could include a return to Romeo. i want to hear more on trent east and its development. Massively undervalued now.

so we are siiting on about £15 million in cash.. so thats approx 6p per share and about 1p per share added each month from Athena.. The market is mad.

Fair comment at this moment in time. Who knows the future. Maybe in a years time crazy Horse is drilled and found to contain 150million barrels. Who knows ? Anyhow if that drill succeds Traps 22% (5% carried) will be worth many times todays price....33 million barrels to TRAP at £40 quid a barrel...... ahhh , what dreams are made of...

I agree...silly price. With PMG looking for North Sea targets i really fear tRAP has become vulnerable to a low ball hostile bid

A couple of significant 500k trades shown as buys. Not much sp movement.

8p Monday? ummm. Unlikely but if it happened i would buy a lot more. By the end the year TRAP will likely be sitting on cash of at least14p a share (remember we had £9.3 million on 31.12.2012). I have discounted our secondary producing asset and the lilkey $7million no drill payment from Caithness which should cover G & A. . TRAP is a bit of a no brainer under 10p. The risk now is a hostile takeover. Considering the cash any bid, i fear, would be around 20p at year end . Thats £33 million cash plus just 6 months Athena production and lots of other goodies. One could certainly argue for a higher valuation. I think many would gratefully take 20p and not haggle. This is the "risk" now.

We may yet get a jack up rig and drill TRENT East this year, third quarter. Thats an easy win for TRAP and would add signiificant gas production renevues.

What bad news? Magnolia? So what. The drills are free carries. Too much emphasis is placed on the exploration drilling. Yes , a drill success would add a lot of value. Its one side of a well balanced business set on growth using a dual strategy; exploration and acquiring producing assets. Spend more time considering the large cash flow from Athena. Look at TRENT and the next revenue stream. Look at knockinon, Orchid and the other assets to be developed adding to the cash flow. If Scotney fails it will disappoint. but we will just go on and drill again using the very best of intelligence. If people are buying this share soley on a 33% chance of Scotney coming in they have missed the point; we have a sound business model and are making money.