Member Info for cyan2

Good afternoon highlandsbull. "what happened to the supposed joint haircut with bondholders, some equity some dilution, not 98.5% shareholders now being told is good deal for 260 mmbbl field against the hyped industry valuation." The infamous rns where the bod stated there was "unlikely" to be sufficient to distribute to shareholders if enforcement action was taken gives the game away , imo. Its evident that when the books were examined and experts valued the 'assests'; there was not so much 'worth' as hoped. I expect the BH's will have to take a serious haircut themselves. They really had to press for an enormous chunk of equity. Did you listen to the Malcy interview? He was diplomatic , but his comments on the boards own valuation ,amongst others things hinted that he thought they had been a bit over optimistic, maybe over-egged. The bit about the numbers working made me wonder if potential suitors were not entirely convinced by XEL's numbers. Having personally had a bad experience with a heavy oil asset I can understand why they are unpopular at the best of times.

Good morning Upanchors. Your previous threads were taken down rather quickly. It is too late to turn XEL around; they are nearly out of cash and time. "I have worked in several big office buildings so I know how to run a business like this." I think you said the 'mail room' in one of those taken down threads. Even Lord Sugar would fail to save this disaster so electing you to the board will be like shuffling the chairs on the Titanic.

"the price will recover once an FDP is in place" If anyone is hoping for the FDP being in place I think they are misguided. The FDP can not be finalised without the finance being in place; its catch 22. The last full year report (published 21st March) has this comment on the FDP " In order to fulfil the financial capability requirements of the FDP approval process for the Bentley field development, the Group intends to secure a financing package which meets its long-term funding requirements, including re-financing of the Statement of Financial Position where appropriate. There is, however, no guarantee of this future long-term funding being available. "

As time becomes short it must be pretty hard to trade the shares to make a profit. I just do not understand what any buyer today is expecting if they held until after the dilution. Prices paid today suggest they must believe , post dilution the company will be valued of way over £300 million sterling. Does anyone else think that's credible? The company's rns , when translated ,suggests maybe maximum of £100million . That looks too high to me. To me it looks like a fast way to lose at least two thirds the investment if not every single penny. What have I missed?

"I thought we where supposed to hear the Ben T proposal yesterday. Must be lost in the post." Yeah, a bit like those accounts that were promised. What ever happened to that forensic audit?

Shocking. I have been there in the past; watching value eroded everyday and kept on saying to myself 'this can't get any worse' You end up frozen like a rabbit caught in the headlights ; paralysed unable to get out the bl**dy way.

Its a rock and a hard place jonjo. I am struggling to imagine any reasonable scenario where today's share buyers are going to make a profit. Imo , its a one way bet. Do miracles happen?

I would say , that's the end ..............

The thing is jojo; What "assets" did XEL have to secure $149 million against. I think their tangibles are about $8m One would not think no-one would think $149 million "secured" against such feeble 'assets'. Logically thinking the BH's had to be satisfied they were secured against the licenses; the only things of value and not assorted office furniture and junk.

Hi Jonjo, The question of losing the license is very significant. I would have thought that the company would have warned in the RNS that 'enforcement action' would lead to revocation and negligible value left in the company. Just had a couple of minutes searching and found this link; hTTps://www.gov.uk/guidance/oil-and-gas-petroleum-licensing-guidance#change-of-control-of-licensee Here are a couple of extracts; Charges on licences "It is common practice for banks lending money to companies to demand a charge on the company’s assets as a form of collateral. Creation of a charge on a Petroleum Act licence is controlled in accordance with the model clauses attached to each licence." and "If a borrower defaults on the loan, the lender may wish to seek enforcement of the charge to have a licence interest transferred to itself (possibly after appointing a receiver). This would constitute a licence assignment, which is controlled in its own right under the model clauses. Faced with a request for consent to such an assignment, the OGA would take into account all relevant factors, including the expectations of the lender. However, the Secretary of State must exercise their discretion in each specific case, and this cannot be fettered by earlier promises to take, or not to take, a particular course of action. The OGA will also not make such promises."

When I say IF it will be pumped I do not suggest there are any questions as to the technical feasibility . As you rightly point out 150,000 barrels were extracted in the EWT. The "IF" question relates to the economics; the numbers. Also when you hear some of the politicians say that we need to move away from fossil fuels, ban fracking and we need to keep it in the ground; that's not good mood music for very heavy oil fields.

Trouble is, highlandsbull, none of that will benifit XEL holders now. They may end up with a few Statoil shares and be able to sell for a drink . Long term , Statoil could be the big winner IF the very heavy oil is ever pumped.

I suspect Statoil are comfortable waiting and letting XEL fall into their lap. Malcy pointed out there used to be TWO players big enough and interested in making huge heavy oil projects work; Statoil and SHELL. Shell have walked away leaving Statoil as the only possible game in town; holding all the ACES. I suspect that after a "yes" vote things could move relatively fast. Talks with Statoil and an agreed price requiring a haircut from the BH's who practically own all of XEL. We know from the companies rns that, after expert advice, its "unlikely" shareholders would get anything if enforcement action is taken. Rough calculations means they would expect 0.5p maximum per diluted share. I suspect Statoil will want to pay less than that.

" in a liquidation the licence falls and we have no asset. " Interesting point jonjo which raises questions about when the license could be taken away. The companies rns made it clear that the BH's threatened enforcement action if the restructure is voted down. Now ,surely that can only mean administrator being brought in. If it was clear cut that the license would be lost immediately it strikes me the BH's would be cutting off their noses to spite their face. Usually administrators take over and keep the running whilst trying to find a buyer for the business as a going concern. If that fails , liquidation follows.

I agree Statoil has the wherewith-all. They do not need to rush in to save XEL; time is on their side. Why pay every penny that is owed to the BH's when they can let them take a big hit. Could save ten's of millions.

Why support with UP TO $10million? My guess is that they have so little ready cash left to pay staff, consultants and lawyers ; they were going to run out before the vote. They need time to negotiate effectively a fire-sale. "So the bonds are covered and the funding capability is there to move this to production. " I do not see that. The novel tentative potential funder needs a 100% guarantor. That's crazy. The money is not forthcoming to advance fdp let alone production. "Once the fix is in and fdp approved time can be taken commensurate with the poo to bring this to production. Conserve cash until then" XEL needs a VERY VERY rich partner. To bring to production requires eye-watering amounts of cash. Time and cash are not on their side. As Malcy pointed out there is only one possible credible partner; Statoil. IMO , The BH's really do not want to call the liquidators in. The administrators may sell for numbers which will leave all aghast. Here is the pecking order https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquidation Priority of claims Liquidators costs Creditors with fixed charge over assets Costs incurred by an administrator Amounts owing to employees for wages/superannuation Payments owing in respect of workers's injuries Amounts owing to employees for leave Retrenchment payments owing to employees Creditors with floating charge over assets Creditors without security over assets Shareholders

Evening bodog. Had a bit of a shock this evening. You may remember the Malcy link on XEL and his negative view. hTTp://bit.ly/2d3Q3gq The first half of that interview was regarding JOG. Had a look and see that JOG shares rose %46.93% today on confirmation of the Statoil farmin there. Bit shocked. Everyone knew it was coming. Wish i bought a shed load more. Can't get cocky about it cause I am still down a lot as I owned TRAP which was taken over for a song by JOG. I suspect that Bentley may come good one day under Statoils control. That will not benefit today's equity holders I'm affraid.

What i find extraordinary is the directors seem to have no shame; the destruction of shareholders equity is incredible, yet, they have kept bleeding the company with their excessive wage packets. If they had any decency they would have announced an instant 50% wage cut for themselves. There are no consequences for their failure. Totally shameless and issuing an rns explaining that the $10m is..."to pursue the development of the Bentley field in order to deliver value for all stakeholders in the future." NO, imo,its about continuing to pay wages as the companies account is running out of cash fast and they can't pay the staff. Its just further erosion of the companies value and god knows what interest rate will be charged. Statoil can just sit and watch this disaster unfold. XEL management have not got any bargaining leverage. They will end crawling on their knees , throwing themselves at Statoil, and likely for a pittance. I think the BH's are going to have to take a big hit.

Obviously there is a lot of historical goings on that I am not up to speed on . They may need some generators soon to keep the lights on. Reading between the lines; the 'up to ' $10 m "WORKING CAPITAL" suggests their current liquidity is pretty bad. Reads like 'keep the lights on' money to me. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck; its a duck!

The last full year report (published 21st March) has this comment on the FDP " In order to fulfil the financial capability requirements of the FDP approval process for the Bentley field development, the Group intends to secure a financing package which meets its long-term funding requirements, including re-financing of the Statement of Financial Position where appropriate. There is, however, no guarantee of this future long-term funding being available. " Circumstances suggests no-one is prepared to provide the 'future long term funding' The running costs of this company are not insignificant; they spent $4.171 million on staff costs, there appears to be a separately listed figure of $1.314m for directors which i can not square with the individual directors remuneration.. There are admin costs $1.73 million. And this , which amazes me $2.4million on 'Consultants'. You would think there was sufficient in house expertise; having said that , performance suggests otherwise. Doesn't look like much of the $10 million will be spent on development. Hate to think what exceptional legal expenses they may have incurred.