Member Info for cyan2

Been researching more of XEL's history. I know plenty have issues with Share Prophets but there were articles which were spot on regarding the risks management took. These warnings go back 30 months. The comments regarding Statoil and their putting heavy oil BRESSAY project on ice & cancelling a rig order are not encouraging . I doubt Statoil are going to be falling over themselves to 'buy' XEL for anything other than peanuts. http://www.share prophets.com/views/4734/xcite-energy-it-could-lose-everything published 31.03.14 extract; "Statoil, like any sensible oil company will only have so much appetite for any particular venture before its strategic risk committee forces them to diversify capital allocation elsewhere. The mothballing of the Bressay project appears to quantify Statoil’s appetite for heavy oil rather succinctly. From here it is clear that exterior developments during the past 6 months have seen Xcite’s fortunes take a dramatic turn for the worse, and Xcite now seems destined to find itself at the mercy of the vultures. If Xcite fails to integrate into the basin quickly, it appears it and its shareholders could eventually lose everything. " http://www.share prophets.com/views/6031/xcite-energy-extremely-expensive-funding-warns-of-trouble-ahead published 16.06.14 extract; "However, what remains clear is that CEO Rupert Cole and his fellow directors have exhausted the market’s goodwill towards them. They now either must deliver or this stock faces Armageddon." http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/statoil-drops-bressay-platform-order-at-daewoo/ published 28.07.16

The level of incompetence here is breath taking. Better double check all your numbers Rupert just in case you have a decimal point in the wrong place in the accounts.

Licenses can be extended on application; of course, the government does not have to. Odds on , imo, that Statoil will end up with at least Bentley and I would doubt the government would object to an extension.

Have to agree CC; incompetent and utterly shameless. I would hope the BH's will give certain persons the order of the boot. I think they have 17 staff. Been reflecting on how long the existing cash plus the up to $10m facility could last. My guesstimate that they are 'normally' burning around $700,000 pm. The big unknown is what they have recently been blowing on consultants and lawyers? The incumbent management could keep drawing their gross pay packets for up to a year. Imo the BH's are looking for a fast exit at the best price. I don't think the BH's will put up with such foot dragging and blowing of more of their cash. If 'yes' wins I would expect commencement of talks with Statoil fairly quickly.

"Mr Chambers questioned whether the EGM Resolution is in a legally acceptable form. He was informed that it was a word for word copy - with the names changed - of the one he submitted to oust the previous board." Back to the drawing board Clem; Where are those accounts?

hTTp://www.share prophets.com/views/24435/sefton-call-to-arms-flip-flop-ben-turney-now-at-21-support-to-oust-the-board Extract; "Turney promises that Sefton will simply return its remaining cash to shareholders. We think this is the right thing to do and so urge you to get in contact with Flip Flop now." In the process we may find out where the monies been spent

Hi Diver69. Imo, the hint that a relatively fast sale is on the cards is the phrase "UP TO $10m Working capital". Its a puny amount of money that's clearly not going to advance Bentley's development. Effectively its a ticking clock; they have to sell before $10m of BH's emergency working capital is burnt up... Its disappointing that there has not been any signs of cost cutting. Maybe a fairer price could be achieved if there were a number of interested parties. Some think there is only one credible company that MAY buy; Statoil. They can wait, imo, and have a strong negotiating hand, its a buyers market and if they are the only one out there.......

Good morning LEGENDS. XEL have, imo, long gone past the point when the issue of a guarantor has any significance. Who would act as a guarantor with this failed management ? I suspect that Statoil and everyone else in the industry is expecting the BH's will have to take a significant haircut themselves. I do not see Statoil wanting to fully repay those BH's. I see there are very optimistic investors out there again today. Notably someone paid 1.99 for 60k shares. Obviously they must believe market value , post dilution, will be in excess of £400 million sterling. What's to worry about?

"The weirdest LinkedIn profile ever...Brokerman Dan joins facebook for grown-ups" http://www.share prophets.com/views/24410/the-weirdest-linkedin-profile-everbrokerman-dan-joins-facebook-for-grown-ups Is this a wind up? Extract; "Meanwhile look at what he wants to do. Join a not for profit board? Well after Sefton Resources (SER) you can't say he has no experience of that. Or perhaps he means something else."

Interesting comment on GKP and the fall out from dilution. At least they are producing. http://www.share prophets.com/views/24406/zac-the-knife-phillips-explicit-warning-on-gulf-keystone Close the gap between 'share' and 'prophets' to make a workable link. LSE remove otherwise. I hope any newbies are fully aware of the impending dilution in XEL. Based On the companies own numbers ; anyone investing £3000 at today's SP is going to find it at , post dilution, worth less than £1000; maybe a lot less and zero is still possible if a 'no' vote succeeds. The only guys making money on this share are the traders and consultants, imo.

People have been paying prices today for these shares that indicate they must believe that XEL will be market valued at in excess of £360 million sterling post dilution. That is incredible. This article from the 1st October is not unreasonable . Worth a re-read IF you haven't already. hTTp://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/166623/is-xcite-energy-headed-for-the-knackers-yard-166623.html

What! SER have spent £10,000 every month!!!! On What? hTTp://www.share prophets.com/views/24381/tom-winnifrith-bearcast-special-the-sefton-pantomime-has-started-all-over-again Close bthe gap between share and prophets to kake a workable link. Hope someone gets in there and find out where the monies gone. My suspicion is "consultants"

Buying for a nominal £1? Interesting idea Diver69. If I recall right FOCUS Do it all was bought for just one pound. My guess is £65 million Sterling by Statoil

"subject to shareholder approval, the restructuring will comprise 100% of the value of the outstanding Bonds (approximately US$149 million) being exchanged for 98.5% of the enlarged issued share capital of the Company, through the issue of additional shares in the Company " The RNS went on to explain the consequences of enforcement after a 'no' vote; "the directors believe that such enforcement action is unlikely to result in the return of any value to the Company's existing shareholders." Its there in black and white; The board believes it unlikey the new share capital will be worth more than £120m Today; people are buying shares that anticipate the value of the new share capital will be over £310m!!!!! The Board does not expand on how much less than the £120m it could be. Hello, hellooooo......

Oh, you are such a wag jonjo, lol. Whether people vote 'yes' or 'no' the result is so close to ZERO as not to matter that much , imo. The one thing that 'investors' needs to focus on ; Is the current share price reasonable?. If you believe that the restructured company will be worth in excess of £300 million , then maybe it is.

Interesting reading back LEGENDS "likely that such a restructuring will involve a reduction in the Bond liability for an equity stake in the Company." No reduction . That tells a story imo ; they do not see a long term profitable future for the equity. But this is the figure that shows why the bond holders had to supply emergency working capital . "The cash balance as at 30 June 2016 was $7.36 million, " They were running out fast and unable to tap cash elsewhere.

Hi Jonjo. Seen a note about a proposed merger between Teathers and SER. Not spent any time looking at Teathers. The amounts of money are puny, even I have more cash than these companies!. The big problem is that SER is so toxic. The authorities, I suspect , have been closely watching activities. The really major issue is that the authorities have raised the bar for entrants to AIM. Some of the major conditions include , at least one years working capital, a credible business plan and credible management. I believe there is also a minimum market value that they fall far short of. I wonder if they will be trying to raise more cash fromr existing holders? lol I suspect its going to be very hard work to persuade the authorities to allow these boys back to play small pi's on AIM again.

I have not read any details. Surely it can not get any worse than it is now?

Imo , re-financing XEL to guarantee long term survival is now highly improbable. The clue is the "UP TO" $10 million "working capital". This money could only be obtained from the BH's at the last minute; no-one else would lend another cent. The BH's had the incentive of thinking , perhaps they could achieve a better, faster exit than any liquidator might . Imo, they do not want to run an oil company, they want out fast for as much as possible. The shocking implication of this 'working capital' requirement is that the company are burning up the remaining cash at an alarming rate. So, imo, XEL's maximum life span is based solely on how long 'up'to' $10m lasts. They appear to have been given a 'dead-line' ; achieve a deal expeditiously or we HAVE to call in the receivers.

Something went seriously wrong for a deal not be clinched when Brent was over $100; goodness, it hit $115. It is rather marginal now when you consider the capex in the billions of dollars. This extract backs up my previous guesstimate ( $5) on this very heavy oils discount to Brent; hTTp://www.xcite-energy.com/investors/investment-proposition "The RAR, as audited by TRACS, is based on forecast and prices effective as at 31 December 2015 from McDaniel & Associates’ 1 January 2016 Brent oil forecast, less a 12% discount for Bentley crude" So, at $50 Brent, 12% = $6 So, XEL would get $44.00 XEL's break-even cost per dollar is $34.4 Not a great margin, and what if Brent oil falls back to $40? I think the numbers are not attractive for the money required. Previous experience with the heavy oil production from 'Athena' was an eye opener. Its expensive getting the oil to move and the down the bore pumps can be pain when they fail. Have to get a rig in to do work-overs. 'Athena' turned into a nightmare when both pumps ( one a back up) failed in one of the main producers. They have a limited life anyway. The experience their coloured my view of investment case regarding heavy oil fields. Statoil appear to be the only credible player who might want to 'buy' XEL. In his interview Malcy suggested Bentley will practically be given to Statoil. I understand that a timescale for production from FDP can be 3 years. Everything is against XEL now. They have very limited working capital which may give them 2 or 3 months to close a deal with Statoil. They have not concluded the financial requirements of the FDP themselves, anyway, due to the 100% guarantor condition imposed by the tentative novel financiers. I suspect Statoil will takeover for a song and bank the assets hoping for a better day. I doubt very much that the BH's want to run an oil company. Could be years of costs with nothing to show. It could turn into a money pit. I think those guys will want some cash quick and move on. If the current XEL management were really committed to bringing shareholder value and turning the company around ; they would have taken pay cuts. They know the writings on the wall and , imo,they are going to take as much with them before XEL disappears.