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I agree with that sentiment; wouldn't invest in shale either. Its the constant need for capital to drill and drill again because of the 70% depletion after just a year. Cheap finance is required and no-one wants to pony up at a reasonanble rate anymore. The bond debt mountain will be the final nail in the coffin for many shalers.

I also do not like them on the environmental front; very polluting and they are wastefully burning off huge amounts of gas adding to green house effect.

This May 2019 article is doom laden ;

hTTps://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Shale-Boom-Is-About-To-Go-Bust.html

Well, BP still thinks there's money to be made. Interesting comment below the article from Dr Mamdouh G Salameh.

Just how much life is there left in US shale? A very complex tale indeed with differing opinions.

The financially stronger and more efficient big companies will prosper. Its the weaker, indebetted companies with huge maturing bonds in next two years who are vulnerable to bankruptcy;
Article from 30th August 2019;
hTTps://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-and-gas-bankruptcies-grow-as-investors-lose-appetite-for-shale-11567157401

Maybe BP can finance more efficiently without having to rely on high interest bond issues. As I wrote; its a complex story .

There is a bond debt mountain out there.

US shale is a complex story.

hTTps://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com/drilling-production/34061-just-10-of-shale-oil-companies-are-cash-flow-positive-rystad-energy

US shale is a complex story. The issues revoilve around the on going requirement for huge capital investments as the wells deplete fast. There is a bond debt mountain out there.
hTTps://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com/drilling-production/34061-just-10-of-shale-oil-companies-are-cash-flow-positive-rystad-energy

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Shale-Boom-Is-About-To-Go-Bust.html May 9 2019 article

"Ultimately, precipitous decline rates mean that huge volumes of capital are needed just to keep output from declining."

Interesting reading the comments below the article.

Certainly a capital intensive industry with high depletion rates. Those bankrupticies are the imperical evidence all is not entirely well with US shale

US shale has debt issues; an article from today;

hTTps://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-and-gas-bankruptcies-grow-as-investors-lose-appetite-for-shale-11567157401

US shale has a limited life; Its decline might just fit in with when SEALION starts production

hTTps://www.malcysblog.com/2019/08/bucket-list-6-month-update/

JOG comments

Good afternoon fecm;
Sorry for late reply; busy elsewhere. you wrote;

"Again, where did Ovets state that TD had announced that FID had been made?"
OVETS wrote this earlier;

"Sam's continued silence is pretty awful, but TD announcing FID incorrectly more than once is unforgiveable."

"TD announcing FID "

Its really down to OVETS to evidence or correct

Final Investment Decision (FID)

In the energy project context, FID stands for “Final Investment Decision”. It’s basically the point at which everything is in place for a project to say “yes, let’s go ahead”. It’s when the project execution phase begins and the big money starts being spent on project construction (i.e. often when an EPC contractor gets to work). To reach FID, a project has to have a wide range of contracts and permits in place which have allowed it to agree its investment structure and terms with its finance providers (both debt and equity).

hTTps://greycellsenergy.com/glossary-item/fid/

Ovets; When did TD announce that the FINAL investment decision had been made? Very serious statement with important implications. Anyone shown to make a misleading statement about FID would be in hot water; misleading the market; very grave stuff.

Good morning Ovets; You wrote " but TD announcing FID incorrectly more than once"

When did TD announce FID had been made?

Guessing the value when we hit bproduction is tricky. I temper my guess by the experience I have as a holder og GENL. Market cap circa £500 million. Effectively debt free (massive cash pile exceeds bonds issued). Paying dividends with a yield approaching 7%. Circa 35,000 barrels ady production ( similar to RKH's target share).Has some of cheapest on shore drilling costs in the word and very substantial reserves. Now, its pretty obviously WAY undervalued but, it does give pause for thought as where RKH could yet be valued.

Interesting thoughts but I think we must reflect on the POSSIBLE scale of award from the arbitartion.
Firstly; EDISON reported that the claim is 275 million EUROs plus interest.
Previous cases involving companies that took on already blighted projects in a take over found that the award was reduced by 50%. See this comment;
hTTp://arbitrationblog.kluwerarbitration.com/2018/01/27/rockhopper-vs-italy-weighing-legitimate-expectations-investors-due-diligence-ma-deals/?print=print
This article suggests RKH could take 50% .
So maybe the theoretical maximunm is 150 million Euros. I note that EDISON gave an indicative example in their report of $50 million. (worth 8.5p per share)

My guess is we will double on FID and be 80p plus by first oil.

We will just have to wait and see

Not sure what to make of PMO short positions. I'd like to think we can be fairly confident that PMO are not holding back , until 22nd, an announcement that should be promptly RNS'd; ie Zama sale uner negotiation.
I guess someone thinks the numbers will not impress. PMO have hedged well. Frankly not expecxting any major surprises myself.

A lot to weigh up if you are thinking of investing. Here are some negatives and positives;

RKH; the negatives;

Sale of Egyptian assets. Market did not like. Does that signal that RKH believe FID will be delayed and they need the cash to survive until first oil revenues. How long will any potential delay be?

POO weakness and general concerns of economic down turn; Will this put off lenders?

No certainty finance will be provided; no finance equals no development.

EDISON thinks the market is giving sealion no more than a 20% chance.

If SEALION does not reach FID; the share price, in my opinion, will very substantially retreat to reflect the cash in the bank at best.

Arbitration award is not gauranteed; RKH may not get anything.

PMO signalled their preference was to bring in another equity partner. Assuming after FID ; will this entail further delays? Have PMO already been mulling with another possible equity partner?

The positives;

FIG very supportive .

PMO committment to the project; circa 60 staff engaged on forwarding SEALION development.

FEED completed ; project costs reduced , LOI's signed,and continued mitigation efforts.

PIM submitted to potential financers.

DURRANT interviewed in MAY revealed that PMO had been discussing with funding sources "for some time" and he was "very encouraged"

Malcy's suggested that it was not out of the question that FID might be achieved at the turn of the year . DURRANT responded "No,I think that's right"

EDISON report offered opinion that , after the Egyptian sale, RKH will have sufficient capital to reach first oil. This assessment is with a 12 month contingecy over and above RKH guidance.

Arbitration prospects considered very good and a very substantial payment is possible.
(EDISON report gave an indicative example of $50m USD that would equate to 8.5p per share).

EDISON disagrees with market apparently giving SEALION development only 20% chance. EDISON gives SEALION 55% chance; slightly odds on.

Godders99 wrote "Fact is this isn't a multi bagger and never will be. Of it was IIs would have piled in by now"

Have you looked at who holds RKH shares? The II's already hold .

Regarding II's there are positives to take if you compare with a retail favourite.

Compare RKH to UKOG and you will see significant differences. The UKOG CEO and the Institutions do not hold ANY shares. UKOG is all retail and you just see nominees in the list of holders. That should ring alarm bells.

RKH does have Institutional holders and a CEO with some skin in the game.

hTTps://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/rkh/ownership

Lets see if those recent sizable RKH sales came from II's. Look out for RNS. Those millions of sales went somewhere.
Who picked them up?

"Money talks. If its such a fantastic opportunity, a multi bagger at this ridiculous low price. Where is everybody........"

Well, if any potential investor read the posts on this board they would think RKH is a POS and would be put off.

Share prices are very much driven by the demand for the stock; people wanting to buy into the company's prospects. This BB has become dominated by a small number of posters most of whom state they are shareholders posting regularly; sometimes several times a day; expressing extreme dissatisfaction. Sometimes colourful abusive descriptive terms are used . Distrust of the management expressed in the most explicit way .
I have been disappointed that progress to development has been very slow . I don't winge every day about how unhappy I am . What do you guys think possible new investors pick up from the repetitive negative postings?

I see light at the end of the tunnel and, that the balance of probabilities is now into the odds on side as does EDISON.

There are never guarantees and I am here with my eyes wide open.

If I am wrong i will not blame anyone else for my decisions.

The recent PIM sumbition is not a false promise its a fact; it represents progress. PMO have engaged circa 60 staf to forward the development of SEALION and have already made much progress with negotiations with contrators resulting in the signing of LOI's.
As I say; You are believe it WILL happen; or you don't.
If you think you are being lied to and that FID will not be reached; this is not the place for you.

Lots and lots of moaning on the BB . The most recent gnashing of teeth has followed a sector wide retreat in O & G valuations following weakness in POO; other shares have lost ground too; its not just RKH specific. Others like HUR have lost significant ground and , of course PMO. Weaker POO particualrly impacted PMO who is a large producer; not a particular surprise. Also, RKH has had at least one significant seller which has helped drive our price down.
So what has changed in respect to the long term prospects of SEALION.?
Is RKH rushing towards bankruptcy or massive dilutions?
If you read the EDISON report the conclusion they come to is NO; If the finance comes through ,RKH are fully funded to first oil with a cautious assumption that first oil is in 2024; and thats with a 12 month contingency.
There are those posting , endlessly, very negatively with some expressing doubt that the finance will be forthcoming. Yes, funding is critical. DURRANT stated he is 'very relaxed' and 'very encouraged'. . If you doubt him and If you do not believe the finance will be forthcoming; there's the door; dump, get out.
Personally I doubt we will reach FID around XMAS 19 and that some of that contigency time will be used up; maybe FID in the summer of 2020?
The exciting possible bonus is the arbitration result expected in Q1 2020. IMO, our future does NOT depend on any award; its just a possible BIG bonus.
In conclusion ; I believe RKH is on route to the monetization of SEALION and that PMO are not going to write off half a billion quid from their books.