Member Info for cyan2

15.2.17 COC's open letter contained these lines;

"With Bowleven becoming an efficient, one-asset company with available tax losses to shelter future taxable income, we view it as a likely scenario that the final monetisation of Etinde would take place in the form of a corporate transaction, i.e. an offer to all shareholders by a third party."

crownoceancapital.com/Open_Letter_to_BLVN_Shareholders.pdf ·

'a likely scenario' always been my belief that was COC's preferred exit route

I should add that New Age are a private company and I would expect they might like to list sometime.

I suspect they would prefer a main listing as opposed to BLVN's AIM.

The ideal end story for me would be for New Age to buy BLVN in totality.
Just think of the enormous tax losses they could take advantage of!

Its all about price. My bet is anywhere between 40 and 50p. Would love more of course. Timescales? maybe 12 months. All hopes and guesses of course.

It was a press interview with quotes. Not very extensive but the key line can be found here;

hTTps://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/17209419.bowleven-boss-defends-oil-and-gas-firms-decision-to-quit-scotland-for-london/

“It’s inconceivable that a reserve of this size can not be monetised at such a level that shareholders who have come in over the last two or three years can’t get back the money they have invested.”

Frankly I would be delighted to see ETINDE realize $150 m USD. Imo opinion COC have always been about a fast sale of the asset and distribution.

At one stage a long time ago Malcy alleged his spies learnt that COC had a buyer lined up. Well, nothing came of that; why? Lets hope they weren't being greedy.

Its all about crunching the volumetric s and how NA and Lukoil want to proceed.

I think if you paid up to 40p you will get your money back as per the recent revealing interview.

NA and Lukoil did their DD and bought into ETINDE on what was known in 2014.

Since then we have added additional gas volumes and have a liquid rich discovery subject to volumetric s.

Lets again reflect on what was paid on the then smaller asset numbers; a $250m package for 50%.

Lets assume the lower percentage share for BLVN; 20%.

If $250m WAS the value of 50% of ETINDE (some at the time thought that FAR too cheap) it follows 100% could be valued at $500m.
With 20%; a fifth we can theorise that BLVN's share is valued at %100 USD or £78 Million Sterling.

£78 million Sterling , and based on shares in issue of 335,272,933 shares in issue equates to 23.2p per share.

Add that to the 'current assets'cash etc (see accounts) and 5.7p FID payment we get to BLVN SP 'fair' value of circa 48.5p.

I suppose its possible we will get sold at a small discount to that.

"So if you are saying value is around 48p here how can we possibly expect to get more than 35 to 40p ?? "

The 2014 farmin ; the 50% of ETINDE, was for a package valued at $250 USD. That gives a reasoned , real asset value, on which to base a possible company asset distribution figure. We then have the substantial amount of cash to consider.

The latest drill results have ADDED value; an increase in "area" and volumes. We also have an unexpected liquid rich discovery under evaluation.

48p plus remains realistic and achievable in my opinion; cash and actually achieved asset sale numbers support it, imo.

It really all depends on how soon COC want to cash out. For an early exit they would likely sell at a discount to the other partners. Could that serious discount lead to a distribution between 40 and 45p?

The drills have actually added to ETINDE's volumes . in theory the price should be significantly higher than 50p.

Perhaps the next conference call will enlighten as to how long is their game.

35p is just far too low. Look at the numbers;

I just do not see how ETINDE has reduced in value since the 2014 sale of 50% for a package valued at $250 million. The drills HAVE added additional volumes and value .

I think it remains fair to value BOWLEVEN's percentage, pro-rata , at about $100 million at least, that's about £78 million. That's over 23p a share.

Then we have our cash balance which I think is circa 19p a share.
Running total 42p

The $25 m FID payment is worth circa 6p.

Value appears to me to be , in total ,48p a share.

Anything that distributes all assets for less than 40p a share would be ridiculous, imo.

Well, chairman chose to buy GENL at 2.35 very recently; see RNS date 18th October.

He did not have to and he must have seen a value North of 235p?

Just £21 . shocking isn't it.

All those promises from team clem and BMD; The dreams of billions of barrels in the Bahamas; absolutely ridiculous .

Its interesting that the offer of 0.0007p is based on the 'cash' held.

However; do you recall that BMD stated they had invested £85,000 in 4 'investments'?

Now lets do some interesting maths. Earlier in the year BMD tweeted that the cash situation was about the same.

The last number we were given was £144k in 2017.

BMD's 'generous' offer values the company (its cash ) at just £62,645 and that's only what you will get a cut from.

Lets do some interesting maths; lets add £62,645 to £85,000; those mysterious investments.

We come up with a total of £147,645; a number spookily close to the 2017 figure of £144k.

The abscence of accounts clearly outlining the numbers is MOST regretable.

0.0007 PENCE

Values Sefton at £62,645

That's all very strange as on 22nd July 2017 BMD informed holders that Ellerton owed SER in excess of $200 K USD

On 14th March 2017 the update had these lines;

"2/ Sefton are currently in negotiation’s regarding a small producing oil asset on the African continent. Circa 100bopd. Due diligence is proceeding.

3/ The net cash balance of Sefton Resources has risen to £144,000."

=======================================================================================

£144K alone would, divided amongst the shares, works out at 0.00161p each.

If you have One million shares you might hope to receive back £16.10 that's if you could sell them."

With BMD's offer you only get £7.00 now!

it does not appear that BMD's offer is generous.

Where is the independent oversight of this valuation process. Where has the cash gone?

How can anyone judge the fairness or otherwise?

Two years of missing accounts. Shareholders have been largely kept in the dark as to where the money has gone.

0.0007p values SER at just £62,645 . Incredible.

Since Team Clem and BMD took over its been downhill all the way

We just have to take it on the chin; its being plugged and abandoned.

We move on with the reassurance of the value we have already established that is a lot higher than todays sp; imo , its circa 50p.

The next drill MIGHT add to that value. We have been fully carried for these drills which is a blessing.

So, what is a realistic valuation per share now?

In June 2014 Bowleven updated the market on their sale of interest in BLVN;

"Bowleven will reduce its interest in the Etinde permit from 75% to 25% and receive aggregate consideration of approximately $250 million (subject to final working capital adjustment) comprising:  $170 million cash payment at completion;  $40 million staged deferred cash payment due at Etinde development project FID and on completion of appraisal drilling; and  $40 million (net) carry for two appraisal wells."

I think a reasonable MINIMUM starting point is $500 million for ALL of ETINDE based on the previous 2014 buy in price.

This , to my mind, is a reasonable MINIMUM value.

Twenty percent is then worth $100 million to BLVN or about £76 million sterling. That equates to about 23.2p per share.

We have , on top, to consider that $25 m USD payment upon FID . That is about 5.8p per share.

Group cash balance at 31 December 2017 circa $83.3 million = circa 19.4p per share;

Running total 48.4p per share.

The next drill MIGHT add value but even discounting that as another failure , I see BLVN being sold for maybe 50p ,

COC did not invest here to lose money. Their buys included 14 million at 34p.They Knew what was already found and its value . HSBC ADDED very recently based on what was already known.

There is a lot of natural doom and gloom over the drills failue. We still have another shot at adding to a value COC and the likes of HSBC recognised was already stablished; IMO that number is circa 50p take out. Of course, the next drill may add to that.

I will stick with 50p without any 'good' news from the second drill.

"RNS 'S cost money...if ukog was to issue an RNS evertime an oiler went for a sh*t....would need to raise more cash..then you all would be crying dilution"

Its been a while since I looked into RNS costs; I thinks its around £90 a go. Hardly expensive

Reference your post on BB1 and your final line on the reported result;

"How was this a failure as some like to post?"

I suppose the fact UKOG used the phrase "likely sub-commercial" indicates failure.

Remember that UKOG themselves stated that BB was drilled because it was a look a like for HH and the belief was it would "replicate" (their word) the HH results.

It was the "flagship" that did not deliver . Not one tanker load of oil was seen leaving the site.

At HH during first teests 14 tankers left.

UKOG are even considering a 'plug and abandon ' option for BB if they can not make new experimental extraction methods work elsewhere.

Time will tell, but BB does look like it was a very expensive, £12 million lesson.

Will they ever return to BB?

Good morning argus1
You wrote;
"Flow from the Kimmeridge formation at Lidsey now shows SS's concept to be correct."

The Angus RNS had the line;

"The Kimmeridge formation immediately produced light oil, samples which were sent for third-party analysis. "

Didn't BB also produce samples in a similar way? We saw the videos of samples being poured.

Its all about how many barrels could commercially flow. The Angus RNS is short on that data.

The oil is there, yes. can it be made to flow commercially; that's a different question.