Member Info for cyan2

It should be also noted that the Edison report gives a 12 month contingecy making an assumption (cautious)to first oil

"We essentially include a one-year contingency over and above management’s guidance."

"Valuation
Our base case valuation remains broadly unchanged at 79.6p/share (from 78.9p/share). In our previously published note, we valued Abu Sennan at $15.2m ($17.6m on inclusion of associated cash and working capital). This is close to the $16m sales consideration implied by the transaction with United Oil & Gas. Our forecasts and NAV have been updated to reflect an effective transaction date of 31 December 2018 with completion expected in Q419.
We have not revised our Falklands valuation at this point with Sea Lion Phase 1 first oil assumed in mid-2024. We essentially include a one-year contingency over and above management’s guidance.
We continue to base our valuation on a long-term oil price expectation of $70/bbl Brent from 2022"

The Edison report ( 7th August)is worth studying in detail especially after the Egyptian sale and the discussions here regarding possible funding dilution;

hTTps://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Rockhopper-Exploration-Two-material-events-on-the-horizon.pdf

Extracts;

"Financials: Sea Lion Phase 1 funding
Rockhopper ended FY18 with c $40m of cash on the balance sheet and no debt, in line with our estimates. With the disposal of Abu Sennan for a consideration of $16m, our forecast Italian asset capex and SG&A are covered for the next two years at c $5.4m pa. We believe Rockhopper is funded through to Sea Lion Phase 1 first oil given current operator estimates of capex (c $1.5bn gross through to first oil) and debt capacity. Funding for the project is expected to be split into vendor financing (c $375m), export credit/bank finance (c $750m) and upstream partner equity (c$375m).
In this note, we include FY21 financial forecasts for the first time."

Good eeveninh Muchaboutmoney.
I listened carefully to what Durrant was saying and I formed an opinion that the sale of Zama was the prefered course of action.
Its been a long journey and I am a bit surprised by the recent sales depressing the SP.
The recent weakness in POO may not have helped overall sentiment. POO is much better this evening.

Good afternoon TheGreaterFool .
You wrote commenting on an interview with DURRANT and wrote "At the reference to Sealion, his entire demeanour changed to unenthusiastic, closed, even shifty. It was very telling."
Is the interview you refering to the one of 1st May.? hTTps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJtkOKCZezk
My take was not "no hope" , actually rather the opposite .
For those who want to cut straight to SEALION remarks; jump to 11 mins 12 secs.
Durrant highlighted on going cost optimisation and mitigating risks . Durrant stated he was "very comfortable" and "Very encouraged"
On timescales Durrant agreed with Malcy's suggestion for FID at , potentially, the turn of the year (14mins 8 secs).
Durrant stated market conditions and PMO's better balance sheet put PMO in a "much better position go ahead with the project"
I would not, myelf, be surprised if FID is well into 2020. The sale of the Egyptian assets maybe a signal from RKH that they suspect more time is needed to reach first oil.
The positive to take from that is that RKH must be confident of the end result; FID; or else they might have thought better of selling the income generating asset.
The huge plus is that; if the finance is agreed; RKH are fully carried to first oil and a very large income stream.

Exactly. Its not like the UK will be passing giant lorry loads of cash.

hTTps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Export_Finance

UK Export Finance is the operating name of the Export Credits Guarantee Department (ECGD), the United Kingdom's export credit agency

ECGD's aim is to benefit the UK economy by helping exporters of UK goods and services to win business, and UK firms to invest overseas, by providing guarantees, insurance and reinsurance against loss, taking into account HM Government’s wider international policy agenda. ECGD is required by HM Government to operate on a slightly better than break-even basis, charging exporters premiums at levels that match the perceived risks and costs in each case.

The main hurdle now is submitting the application to UKEF and its being approved.

The sum appears to be around $750 million . Not so large an amount to support when you look at the circa $360 million spent on the St Helena Airport . Yes, money from a different 'pot' but it was money spent in supporting an overseas territory and this case; not going to be repaid.

I just find it unlikely that the conservative government would frustrate the FI's strives towards substantial economic riches.

The UK government spent £215 million sterling build the Mount Pleasant air base. Do we really think they will withhold finance support for a robustly commercial hydrocarbon development?

Good afternoon Ovets

I am not sure interviewing Sam will add anything useful to what we already know.

RKH are rear seat passengers and its PMO in the driving seat.

What PMO and Durrant says matters much more than Sam's musings.

Hi Ralph.

View this video . Malcy remains upbeat , imo.

Here is the link reposted for those who may not have seen the Tony Durrant (PMO ceo) interview of 1st May;

hTTps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJtkOKCZezk

For those who want to cut straight to SEALION remarks; jump to 11 mins 12 secs.

Its very much PMO in the driving seat so its important to hear their views.

Malcy interviewed Tony Durrant from Premier Oil a couple of weeks ago.
Published on May 1, 2019

hTTps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJtkOKCZezk

For those who want to cut straight to SEALION remarks; jump to 11 mins 12 secs.

Durrant highlighted on going cost optimization and mitigating risks . Stated reports will be submitted in next month or so to funding sources. Stated he was "very comfortable" and "Very encouraged"

On timescales Durrant agreed with Malcy's suggestion for FID at , potentially, the turn of the year (14mins 8 secs).

Durrant stated market conditions and PMO's better balance sheet put PMO in a "much better position go ahead with the project"

Thanks to an ADVFN poster for the link

hTTps://seekingalpha.com/article/4255216-genel-energy-loss-55-percent-fcf-margin?dr=1

Malcy comments on JOG here;

hTTps://www.malcysblog.com/2019/04/vox-markets-podcast-jersey-oil-gas-genel-energy-rose-petroleum-chariot-oil-gas-predator-oil-gas-and-amerisur-resources/

From about 7 mins in

"buying up of as much as he can cheap before prices become prohibitive or at least vastly inflated from where they are now definitely fits what we have seen to date"

Have to say that , to date, I have not seen any evidence that UKOG battled competition in their Weald acquisitions.

Seems others want to lighten the load; like SOLO, DOR , Pimorus and Gunsynd.

Lets see what UKOG buy. If its away from The Weald it will NOT be a vote of confidence.

Sounds reasonable kris1981, in theory. Self financing.

But I still find it incredible that, with the share so depressed, SS would place again. The timing was terrible. There is possibly still a load of DOR UKOG shares to cash in and its all compounding the pressure on the SP.

But what does a new adventure, possibly away from the Weald, say about the company's assessment of the longer term worth of the Weald? Why look "elsewhere" IF the Weald is such a dream?

Lets see what UKOG buys and whether that will need further capital.

What can you buy, that's any good, for £3.5 million?

The next two drills at HH are paid for , but, the multi-well field development has yet to be funded.

I would have thought the priority would be getting HH into full scale commercial production rather than burden the company with some new adventure that may require further capital .

Well, I read the RNS and this line suggests something away from The Weald, imo;

The RNS had this line;

"the Placing's proceeds will be utilised in the assessment and acquisition of new opportunities, both in the UK onshore and elsewhere."

Would an existing Weald asset be a 'new opportunity'? .

"New opportunities" reads, to me, like something more radical and away from the Weald.

Just have to wait and see. All rather intriguing .

Good morning RipleyBogle

You wrote;

"And there would be no real logic to SS buying up additional acreage now if he could wait six months and get it for the same price and pay for it with fewer shares or a bank loan."

Do you think that £3.5 million is going to be spent on extra Weald assets?

" expect that SS has some strong reason for buying Weald assets now. "

The £3.5million is not for The weald, imo

"the Placing's proceeds will be utilised in the assessment and acquisition of new opportunities, both in the UK onshore and elsewhere"

"assessment and acquisition of new opportunities" Does not read like more of HHDL; they don't need any more "assessment" of HH or the Weald ; they are inside already.

I must correct my correction. Of the £2 million raised last year DHC mentioned it appears £425k CASH was spent on HHDL interests and just £90,450 CASH on Arreton. I misread one RNS.

So of the £2 million it appears £515,450 CASH was spent.

A correction to my post on the £2m . £775k WAS spent , but one of the expenditures was on Arreton;;

Sorry for my error

"For a total consideration of GBP1,925,000, the Company will receive Gunsynd's 2% and Primorus' 5% shareholding in HHDL, equating to a further 4.55% beneficial interest in the Licences. The total consideration, with an effective date of 17 August 2018, comprises GBP425,000 payable in cash and GBP1,500,000 through the issue of 85,714,286 new ordinary shares in UKOG ("Consideration Shares"). The Consideration Shares are calculated based on the closing UKOG share price on 16 August 2018 of 1.75 pence. Completion of both acquisitions, which will be announced in due course, is conditional on HHDL consent. In the year ended December 2016, HHDL made a loss of GBP146,208."

Arreton Oil Discovery Acquisition

UKOG has acquired Solo's 30% interest in the Licence for a total consideration of GBP350,000. The total consideration has been satisfied through the issuance of 17,989,326 new ordinary shares in UKOG ("Consideration Shares") and GBP90,450 in cash. The Consideration Shares were calculated based on the 5-day volume weighted average price to 10 December 2018 of 1.4428 pence.

DHC. Of that £2m , by my calculations a total of £775,000 CASH was used in part payments for more percentage interests bought from 2 other HHDL partners. The balance of those deals made up in UKOG shares