Member Info for CSDI1962

Evenin' all as Dixon of Dock Green might say (yes that gives my age away).

I've joined the rank of AV investors today, by putting 10% of my SIPP in here at 333.5p
I had been holding SLA since April 2018 and deciding when to cut my loss having bought in there at 348p average.
After 3 yrs of divis and the recent good run from the end of October with a 30% jump, decided to sell out at 285p.
Couldn't see much more upside with SLA in its slimmed down version.
Hoping AV is able to offer a better return. It's forecast P/E of 6.4 for 2020 and 6.2 for 2021 leaves lots of room for improvement. The previous 3 yrs average P/E was over 10, and 4/5 yrs ago the P/E was 22/31, so I reckon a comfortable 25% upside at least.
with the divi pencilled in at 21p p.a, and the late payment now of 7p should be looking at 28p worth of divis thru 2021.
Fingers crossed we have a good run, but I must warn all AV holders of the CSDI curse. I am blessed with natural skills of selling shares just before they take off, and buying them as they fall like stones.
I am not called CSDI for nothing - Crap Share Dealing Ideas
Good luck everyone

RNS today shows ex div 10/12 for 5.13p payable 23/12/20.
This was over 7p last year.
The total divi for last 4Qs = 26.59p a drop of about 50% from previous year.
The current yield is therefore is approx 4.1% and a significant amount lower than 12 months ago.

Think I will be looking for another fund. Was thinking about ASEI.
Anyone suggest a fund/trust that will pay around 5% p.a with a good spread of sectors.

Cheers - CSDI

P.S you mention BT and I allowed myself to get suckered in there, taking quite a loss at getting out at the low point - thereby maximising my losses - ouch. My proceeds from BT sales have been put into GSK (down on both purchases, still holding) and IMB (got a 16% return on that one when sold on 24/11).
Would have done far better holding BT for recovery as gained 30% since then helped by today's pop.
Cheers - CSDI (Crap Share Dealing Ideas )

Hi Toff.

Yes the MMs taking the piXX again out of us PIs.
Looking at FTSE over last 12 months - down approx 10%, GSK down approx 20%, and AZN up approx 7%.
As you say since the March low, the FTSE up 30%, AZN up 24%, GSK is flat having hit a fresh low at end of October.
Clearly SP being manipulated.
Hope GSK gets its chance to outshine sometime soon, but may need a lot of patience.
We've been here b4, and no doubt will again as MMs line up their targets and play pass the parcel.

Yes you are correct. It was not a dividend.
It was a capital consilidation receipt - which should have been tax neutral.
Cheers

Hi Thommo,

with the ISA - there is currently an annual allowance. So you can add £20K each tax year (6th April to 5th April). Any gains and divis that stay in this wrapper are tax free.
If you have a share account outside the ISA (or pension), then any divi received is subject to income tax, whether you take it out, leave it in or re-invest. The income is counted in the tax year you receive the money. With IMB it is straight forward as ex-div dates and pay dates fall within the tax year.
Some shares (like GSK) have an ex-div date in Feb, but are paid a few days into the new tax year.
I would expect your Share Account Adminstrator to issue an annual statement of dividends received for tax purposes, and this is probably available from a simple tab on your online system.
Trust this helps

Oh well. Just gone and done it ! Sold SLA @ 285.749 and bought AV @ 333.5p.
Taken a small loss on SLA based on capital loss of 19%, and divis paid for 16% of costs.
Time will tell if a good decision or not, but my trade based on belief that AV has better prospects than SLA from here.
SLA is a different and much slimmer beast to the one I bought.
Let's hope that AV's P/E ratio can improve from this low rating of 6.4 and take the SP north.

Are you in hospital Denby - as an "in"patient ?

Or are you just impatient with this slacking share LOL.

Would like to see some +ve news from GSK as seems to be lagging other pharmas re CV19.

Cheers

Hi Thomo,

Divis outside your ISA and Pensions accounts, are taxable at either 7.5%, 32.5% or 38.1% depending on your total income.
A basic rate taxpayer pays 7.5% after £2K is taxed at 0% (the zero rate allowance).
A High Rate taxpayer pays 32.5%
An additional Higher (over £150K taxable income) pays 38.1%.
The basic rate covers upto 37.5K of taxable income, on top of £12.K annual personal allowance.
If your pension is below personal allowance, then rest of PA can be used to save paying tax.
Trust this makes sense

Hi Hassa, I know your problem only too well.
My "trading plan" is for 10% profit, but when it goes wrong where do you draw the line ? I remember reading The Naked Trader a long time ago, and he suggested taking any loss at 10%. I tried that for a while with Spread-betting and CFDs, but found it was death by a 1000 cuts. Invariably some days later, the SP would bounce back and you could have made a profit.
So now, I tend to review after a fall of 10-20% and decide whether to take loss or not. Generally I think these are temporary movements, so I tend to top up holdings to average down prices. (Opposite advice to Naked Trader)
My first purchase is usu 5% of total p/f. With top ups at 2.5%. So far with IMB my investment has climbed to 25% of my p/f. Having started at £29 in Jan 2018, I am now averaging around £18. with RDSB my original 5% was split with BP when RDSB was £27 in July 2018. I have done 3 top ups with RDSB (one t/fer from BP) so now have average cost of 1737p. No intention of selling, so will have to ride out for some time. If we have another drop in SP to £12 or lower, then I may add another batch if funds available.
Having discipline is key. I have sold HSBC at a loss in March at £5 and April at £4.20 from averaged purchase price of 669p. I think banks have a lot of long term headaches to come, with loan write-offs which I think will be worse than the Credit Crunch. So for now I am avoiding banks.
My total p/f comprises 25% IMB, 22% GSK, 12% BERI, 10% RDSB, 10% IUKD, 9% NCYF, 8% SLA, bal in cash.
Dividend yields are projected as 9.7%, 5.7%, 5.4%, 3.8%, 4.5%, 8.9%, and 7.6% in order of above.
since starting in Jan 218 my p/f is down 6% overall, compared to FTSE down 14%.
I was down 16% at 31/10/20 when FTSE fell to 5577.
At least this is much better than a 2007 pension that was 63% down by Feb 2009 !
I am not called C S D I for nothing - Crap Share Dealing Ideas.

Hi BC, Have to laugh at the comparisons here.
My whole SIPP probably worth less than your IMB annual divi.
Think we live on different planets.
As I have said elsewhere - it would not be end of world if my P/F goes belly up !
For me any gains and divis are a bonus, to supplement my income.
This pension came from a job I held for 7 yrs between 1985 and 92.
Good luck folks

Hi Seaking, sounds like a superbly balanced P/F you have.
My SIPP is small (typical self-employed average), so probably only a fraction of some of the writers on here.
By trying to concentrate on one or two "big-guns" and a reasonable sector split with the others, hoping for growth that will turn the SIPP from typical average to something better !
It is difficult to make "big gains" with a small pot.
However did not want to consider converting to an annuity to get 3% p.a, so have a target of 5% p.a in divis and leave the capital intact.

Hi Dadean,

Diversification is your friend eh ? It can be, but it can also anchor you down. If you have a 20 share p/f split 5% each and one of your shares does well going up 50%, it only adds 2.5 or so to your p/f.
I have a SIPP which originally had approx 20 shares/sectors and found I was treading treacle. So now I have 5% as a minimum holding, 10% as a std, and up to 25% for any "conviction share". Currently I have just 7 shares with GSK @ No. 2 with 20%, behind IMB with 25%. My expectation with GSK (based on a 13 year history of investing) is to aim for 10% profit twice a year. It might go up 20% from this low level, but my target is approx £16, for purchases under £14. For some insane reason I did buy a batch at over £16 in July and may have to hold that one for 2-3 yrs to allow the divi to cover.
I first bough GSK in 2007 at approx 1350p, (which is close to recent levels) and watched as it fell to £10 in the Credit Crunch. Held my nerve and got out with small profit towards end of 2010 thanks to the divi.
Every confidence it will get back to £16, but it may be a bump ride. surprised it is wallowing with the current CV19 opportunities, after climbing to £18 at start of year.
At the end of the day, it's all about risk & reward. Back a winner big style and you're laughing. Get a wrong un and you can get wiped out. At 25% of my p/f it would not be a wipe out but it would be extremely painful if it went very badly.
Back in Feb 2009, I was down 63% on a p/f started in May 2007, so I have experience !
Eventually got back to almost break even when account was closed in 2017. An interesting ride shall we say.
Hence the name C S D I = Crap Share Dealing Ideas

Well let's hope so - I've got 1/4 of my SIPP in here.
She's fallen a long way from SP of over £41 in 2016, when EPS was 249p for y/e 09/16.
For last year 09/20 EPS was 254p, but SP was only 1367p at 30/9/20
Current SP makes no sense at all.
OK Div cut from 207p to 137p due to CV19.
We know this is a "sin-share" and out of vogue.
So happy to take the risk of putting a lot of eggs in this basket.
Only time will tell if this proves to be a good decision or not.
I thought it was a "good buy" at £29 in Jan 2018, so shows how much I know.
Can anyone cheer up Mr Market, so he sends this share on a joyful ride back north please ?
Cheers - C S D I

No wonder I feel conned. got my holding reduced by 7/8. Did get div of 33.9p per share in Oct 2018.
The SP was around 360p in Sep 2018. So here we are 2 yrs later.
25% reduction in SP
12.5% less shares and therefore 12.5% less income each yr from divis.
A £750m buy back to increase SP - that's worked out well hasn't it ?
And that is what they call a "Return to Shareholders".
so now just have to manage a way out of the predicament.
not too far from breakeven with the 3 yrs divis.
sitting on the fence with idea of swap for AV as I always get it wrong.
In last 12 months had
moved BP to join RDSB
Did move VOD to join BT
Swapped HSBC for RBS
and since got rid of BT and RBS and mainly added to IMB & GSK.

Hi All, Just done another small top up on IMB @ 1378p. Takes my average down to 1800p from 1865p. so still need a 30% or so recovery to get back to break even, with the divis already making inroads as held some since Jan 2018.
I did sell a batch at 1493p last week, 2 days before ex div too.
Still have small fund a free to buy another batch if needed, but thinking would like to top up GSK too.
With this latest purchase now have 25% of my p/f in IMB (up from 22%), so reluctant to put any more eggs in this basket.
This purchase was funded with sale of CTY, as decided CTY holding too small to be worthwhile and the IMB divi is roughly double that of CTY. Time will tell if good decision or not.
Fingers crossed that I haven't dunnit wrong again as the old Dick Emery character might say !
GLA

If only that was a cert - we could all be rich !
As this is the biggest part of my pension (22%) I hope you are right.
Will be topping up with another small batch in next day or two. With current average at 1865p, got a good way to go.
Bought first batch in Jan 2018 at £29, so it's a long term project for me.
Have managed to sell one batch at a profit last week; as well as buying another batch a few days before.
Not sure that made sense, but I keep separate batch costs rather than averaging after each purchase.
GLA

Hi Toff,
Very nicely put thank you. It seems you are a rare breed as a successful trader, which I trust you are.
Having tried CFDs and Spread-betting in the past, I was clearly not cut out for trading.
As for now, I have a small SIPP, and love doing my own investments. If it all goes pear shaped it is not the end of the world.
I have spent many years following Stephen Bland and his idea of investing for income. Originally I followed the Midas Dogs of the FTSE scheme from 2002 watching it perform brilliantly until 2007, when they restarted the scheme. I had some funds from a previous pension and put 50% of the funds into the Dogs Scheme in May 2007, which had 5 or 6 banks in its 10 share p/f. Needless to say what followed was the 2008 crash and bank shares such as RBS and LLOY got destroyed. I bought RBS at over £6 (was£18 before a 3 for 1 consol), and LLOY at £5.60 odd. Not to mention B&B which went bust altogether. As time went on I learnt to diversify and not put all funds in market at same time. That SIPP account was closed when I got to 55 a couple of years ago, and I was amazed to have recovered almost all of my early losses. At one stage (end of Feb 2009), my loss was 63%. I never panicked but with hindsight wished I had waited 2 years to start investing !
So now I am investing another pension which started in Jan 2018. With typical CSDI luck, it took 2 years this time before a new market disaster arrived in the form of CV19. I am currently down approx 8% since I started, compared to a FTSE drop of approx 19% over the same time.
I try to keep about 5% of my fund for fun/trading, and originally kept any share to a max of 5% of my fund. I think this creates more work so have decided to cut down to between 8-12 holdings, so that I can "go large" on one or two. I now have a pretty concentrated p/f, still focused on income.
As you say many UK shares seem to trade at low valuations currently. This year I have sold out of telcoms and bank sectors. I have gone overweight IMB and GSK for now and time will tell if this proves to wise or not.
Good luck with your trading and I will stick to my effort of "Value/Income-investing" which is clearly not popular at the moment. Of course it may just be that I am useless at picking shares, but at least I enjoy the ride.
PS. Almost time to buy some more IMB after this swift fall.

Ok Toff - as previously noted you are spot on this occasion, but there is a mixed picture here believe it or not.

I have looked at the last 8 ex dates for IMB.
On day before ex div, there have been 5 rises and 3 falls - so your statement for this day not conclusive
On ex div - all 8 have fallen as expected. 2 of these falls have been slight less than the divi and 4 have been more than 50% more than the divi
Looking at prices 28 days after ex div shows 4 times got back above the ex div date. 3 times not and the current one won't know until 24/12.
The point being made is - I am not sure you can recover the costs of selling and buying back without being worse off. It is a mixed bag of some wins and some losses.
Bare in mind the Feb 20 divi was the beginning of the Covid drama and still no where near back to that price.
Just thought I would throw up an alternative view, but cannot dispute you are correct on this occasion.
Having been a keen investor of HY shares for approx 13 yrs, my experience says the direction of the general market is just as important. Generally speaking, in a bull market the divi will be profitable, in a bear market very negative. The state of the business and the market sentiment towards the share is also crucial. Buy any unlvoed share and you can be in trouble as I know to my cost. Hence the C S D I

Hi Boyo. I have done the oposite earlier this year and switched my BP holding to Shell on 13/3 in the middle of mad March. I sold BP @ 263p and bought RDSB @ 1155p on basis that RDSB had unperformed vs BP since I bought both on 31/7/18. I took a 50% loss on BP at the time. and when RDSB cut its divi first by 2/3 it fell behind BP but now BP has cut divi by 1/2 and RDSB has relatively overperformed BP in last 6 months.
Going forward I think RDSB is better placed for any energy transition, so I would prefer Shell over BP today. Having said that I would not buy RDSB at the moment, as there is good chance Covid will do more damage short term. The new divi is well below my normal target of 5% so fails my selection criteria. The 50% rise in RDSB over the last 4 weeks is ripe for a bit of a pull back, but what do I know.
I don't call my self CSDI for nothing, and normally it is best to do the opposite of what I think - as a Contrary Share Direction Indicator ! Good luck