Member Info for CSDI1962

Hi Folks

I hold IUKD as part of my SIPP and it accounts for almost 10% of my P/F. I bought my first batch in 2019 Q1 at 790p and 2nd batch in the next Q2 at 740p. The divi then was about 52p (6.8%). During mad March this year I added a 3rd batch at 501p, to reduce my average cost to 680p. This year the divi has been cut savagely (just 21.5 for 3 Qs) and assuming Q4 is maintained at last years amount would take the divi to approx 28.6p.
My normal target is at least 5% p.a from divis, with this income withdrawn each year and capital left intact subject to ongoing ups and downs - mainly downs in my case.
With the recent surge in SP with the vaccine news I am close to break even with the divis almost covering the capital loss.
So I am wondering should I sell IUKD now, take a small loss and put this money in another share or fund ? I do have a small holding in CTY but was thinking whether ASEI might be a better choice with its yield of approx 7% as it has a number of the same holdings (BATS, GSK, CMC, IMB, NG, RIO etc).
My current p/f is 22% IMB; 20% GSK; 12% BERI; 10% RDSB; 10% IUKD; 9% NCYF; 8% SLA; 5% CTY, with bal in cash.
I am also thinking of moving from SLA to AV.

CSDI - Crap Share Dealing Ideas - As I always seem to mess up. I have significant capital losses being carried on IMB (24%) , RDSB (25%), NCYF (20%), SLA (23%), but do have at least some healthy dividends 2-3 yrs worth to cut down those nasty losses.

Any constructive ideas would be welcome thanks

Just keeping an eye on this slippery slope. Another 7p down today to 1413p. The early drop to 1385p this morning looked ominous to reaching Toff's 1350p projection. Still plenty of time for Toff to be proved correct or otherwise. I am hoping (should that be praying ?) for a recovery longer term but more than happy if it hits Toff's prediction first in the next couple of weeks as I would add another small batch to bring down my average cost.
As a buyer you should always wish for lower prices, but as seller obviously not.
GLA
Cheers - CSDI

Just reviewing my position for this share which amounts to approx 8% of my current pension value. Having bought in 2018 at average price 348p, I am currently 23% or so down on capital, which has been offset by 3 yrs of divis which covers about 16% of my costs, leaving a loss of around 7% if I sold.
Looking at AV seems to give an attractive replacement. My favoured metrics are P/E ratios and Divi yield, although I know these can be manipulated by presentation. Aviva has a forecast 2020 P/E of 6.6, compared to prev 5 year average of 17. with a yield of 21p (6.5%) from the most recent Q3 update. My current holding with SLA shows forecast P/"E of 19 and similar yield.
LGEN is also considered but but its forecast P/E of 8.9, compares clsoer to its 5 yr ave of 10.7 than Avivas.
Latest broker forecast (big pinch of salt required !) shows target of 453p for AV; 273p for SLA and 263p for LGEN.
Am I missing anything obvious ?
Cheers - CSDI

Just found article from August 2019, when SP was £3. SLA to return £1.75B to SHs. £1B thru issue of B share and £750m thru share buy backs.

What happened to the B share - I've got none and not been offered any. Don't tell me it went to institutons.
The £750m buy back in progress - that would have bought back say 250m shares @£3. Could have been approx 30p divi per share. (based on est of £7.5B market cap with 2.5B shares ) But No - we have SP approx 270p on 2.2B shares and market cap down at approx £6B.

Some one have the guts to tell the BoD to stop this waste of our money !

wow Dogs - that's a brave call.

I like the GSK idea, as good history of trading between £13 and £17.
That must be a super return on RIO, and to hold for nearly 30 years - that's almost Buffet-like.
Cannot imagine super returns on GSK, but I aim to make 10% a couple of times a year if I am lucky.
Insurance and banks - not sure about - but I wish you well.
My p/f is split IMB 22%, GSK 20% , BERI 12%, RDSB 10%, NCYF 9%, IUKD 10%, SLA 8%, CTY 5% with bal in cash.

Nice timing Mr T-of-D,

with it breaking a new 52 week high, is that not a good omen for some more rise to come ?
I am just glad to be back to break-even since buying in Q1 and Q2 2019. The divi puts a thin layer of icing on top for now.
Will commodities not continue to rise as we get back to work slowly, with China steaming forward.
Any chance it can run back to 80p plus levels, last seen in mid 2018 ?

Hi Toff

That maybe the case for the last 4 years or so.

But imagine if you bought for £5 in 1999.
15 years of share price growth and a divi £1.55 (31%) for year end Sep 2016 before it all started going pear shaped !

All ifs and buts ...

Hi Toff,
Your prediction looking pretty damn smart !
So far down 80p on ex div day, as you say a lot more than the 48p divi, with prospect of more falls to come.

Totally disagree with share buy backs - they do not help the PI at all. Money down toilet ....
Paying down debt should be a higher priority for IMB. Majority of FTSE100 companies think debt is good, but it is the No1 Killer of any business. Just becuase interest rates are histroically low, does not mean to say they stay that way forever. When interest rates start to climb any firms with debt around their necks could be in trouble.

The MMs know how to make money and ex div day is like a birthday every week for them !!

Notice that PSN gone ex div today too at 70p, but down about 130p; so in competition with IMB today.

Funney enough whenver I try to be clever and sell, the SP always goes on a charge and when I buy the SP falls like a stone.
Maybe I should never have bothered with trying to invest my own pension, but at least there is no one else to blame, and I am not paying an FA to line their own pocket with no regards to whether the make or lose money. I can do that myself LOL

Always happy to laugh at myself, hence the acronym C S D I - Crap Share Dealing Ideas

Cheers

Hi Risking it,
No worries - my track record is pretty useless - hence the C S D I.

As a PI, I have never had any benefit from a company adopting buybacks .... in fact the opposite.

To say it is a "cash return to shareholders" is a nonsense.

I am sure there is some benefit if you hold 5% of a FTSE company in theory, but tell me in the case of SLA how any PI has made money from this idea, as I just cannot see it.

Even the re-structure in 2018, reduced our shares to 7/8 and gave us 33.9p to compensate.
More so it reduced any future divi I would receive by 1/8 by virtue of owning less shares through no choice of my own.

SLA makes up approx 8% of my SIPP, and I would just like to see the SP get back to what I paid in April 2018.
At current price I am down 24% on my capital, but the divis have covered 16% of that loss at least.
Maybe it will eventually recover. I would have much preferred a special divi paid to us all, rather than the buybacks which I still believe are a waste of money.

On this one, we will just have to agree to disagree. Trust you understand even if not in agreement.
good luck with your investments, as ultimately the world is a better place if we can all win.
Cheers - CSDI

Sorry but buy backs do NOT return CASH to shareholders.
Dividends do.
Buy backs are a theoretical way of increasing share value, by reducing the number of shares in float.
But reality shows companies get this wrong. Now share prices are lower in the UK than most of the last 5 years yet buybacks have been pulled back.
I am sure BP, RDSB and SLA among others were busy buying back shares over the last 2-3 years and yet all these shares prices are well down. Dividends cut too. 'Nuff said .. I rest my case your honour ... LOL
Cheers C S D I (Crap Share Dealing Ideas)
Show me one company in the FTSE100 who

Hi Steve, you could well be right as pretty sure will start from 1443 and go from there. Last years Nov divi saw a fall from 1761 to 1668 within 3 weeks, when the divi was 72p. however by 31/12/19 had recovered to 1867. So I would like some more of that please. I know IMB is out of favour but with EPS of 254p for 2020, and divi of 137p well covered, must be worth more than current 1491. The 5 yr ave P/E is 9.9 and we are currently at below 6. If we can get to a P/E of just 8, the SP would be over £20. Having been in since buying at 2900p, I am not likely to bale out. It may take a long time, but that is what investing is about. Trading is frought with pitfalls, so a mix of core holding and trade batches is the best I can do.
Just yesterday I sold another batch having achieved over 10% profit in a 5 week period.
If it all goes pear shaped I will just have to sit tight again, as no need to crystallise a loss unless I think the SP will ever recover.
I am not called C S D I for nothing - Crap Share Dealing Ideas
Cheers and good luck

I must say I do not undersatnd any company throwing money at Buy-backs - may as well throw money down the toilet as far as investors are concerned. To make it worse they alway buy back when prices are high, and cut back when prices are low !! Would be far better to either:
a) pay down debt - the No 1 business killer
b) hold cash - to develop own business
c) pay a special divi if cash is burning hole in pocket.
SLA has been in serious decline since selling off its old core insurance/assurance business, and then losing big funds with Lloyds/Scot Widow. The share price has gone south from the £5 level 3 years ago. With my usual skill I bought in April 2018 at around 360p. The 7 for 8 consolidation made no sense and reduced our divi income by 1/8 each year ! The only saving grace is that SLA held its nerve with the FCA and carried on with the divi this year. I've collected 3 yrs of divis so far that make up approx 16% of my purchase price. My break-even target is around £2.95, so fingers crossed for a decent run to year end. The current yield of 7.8% is enough for me to keep holding, but not sure I like the sound of a potential divi cut as next years forecast EPS is only 16p, with 14p for this year according to Digital Look forecasts. This does not cover the existing 21.6p annual divi.
Not sure if AV or LGEN may be a better option, as my aim is to hold capital and withdraw divis for income.

BERI has a good run with market since the end of October. A nice divi of 4p p.a offers a yield around 5.7%. With the NAV above 80p currently, there is a 15% discount if the NAV is correct.
Unusually for me, this holding has just gone above break even. I bought 3 bacthes bw March and July 2019 at average cost 72.5p, so with dividends of 7p, 6p, and 5p so far on my purchases, that puts me in a small profit.
Question is - what should my target price be ? as my normal target is 10% on a trade batch, but do not have target for this core holding. Certainly hope for a nice run until year end, wishing for a Santa Rally. Loking at the long term chart, this got to 193p back in 2008 before the Crash. Can't see that sort of price coming back, but like to have a target in mind.

Just under 45 mins before IMB goes ex div. After a spurt up to 1550 on the back of last weeks results we have trundled back down to just below 1490p. The question is:
A) Do you hold and wait/hope for recovery after tomorrow's mark down
B) Or do you sell today and buy back later.
This quarters divi is 48p, so around 3.25% of current price. Add in commission to sell and buy back plus 0.5% stamp duty.
I bought a batch last week at 1483p as an intended trade. but not made enough to justify selling. I do have a core holding as well, bought between Jan 2018 and July '20. My average price on those is much higher at approx 1937p.
What is your advice ?

Well done Thommo - nice time to buy at those average prices.
Glad you're not in my boat as first bought at 2688p on 31/7/18, when divi was 47c per qtr and yield was 7%.
Little did I think that the SP would ever go down to £10. I have never had funds free to buy at the best time, but have added 3 batches at 2067p, 1155p and 1337p, so have an average cost of approx 1737p including comms and stamp duty.
My funds are in a SIPP with a target of 5% p.a divis, but now expect only 2.8% on cost. Approx 10% of my fund is invested in RDSB, so all in all not a success story for me !
Hence my name C S D I = Crap Share Dealing Ideas

Hi RC, The 48p divi is for IMB, not GSK.

Hi RC. Cross-purposes here. GSK divi has been steady at 80p per year for at least 5 yrs, paid 19p x 3 qtrs and 23p for Q4. The Q4 divi is usually announced with year end results in Feb and paid in April. The pattern has been the same for at least 5 years now. There was a speical divi of 20p in 2015 to compensate for flat divi going forward.
I have done another small top up today on GSK @ 1375p, to take my average cost to 1489p and accounting for just under 20% of my p/f at current values or 19% of cost. This was financed by selling a batch of IMB bought last month at 1284p and sold today at 1493p, having (over) achieved my 10% batch-trade target. As I record my costs in batches, I have a different costing to the pension providers platform. I do not like the averaging that is applied when you trade and much prefer my own way of recording costs, as platforms ignore historical trades and only value current holdings.

Hi Toff, You are defintely correct on GSK this year ! The 4 ex-div dates have seen the beginning of serious pull backs. Obviously the February dates were the begining of the Covid rumblings that saw massive and swift declines over 3/4 weeks to mid March.
Oddly enoughthe last two IMB ex divs (only small ones of course at 20p) have been made back in less than 5 trading days. With the bigger divi of 48p this week, that is not so likely unless we have some more great news drop on us.
Cheers again - CSDI

Hi Toff, At the moment you appear to be right, but there have been several times over the last 13 yrs when GSK had gone up on ex-div date believe it or not. While it is normal for the market to adjust price down on ex div day, what really matters is news flow on the day. Imagine if a huge monster appears and tries to buy or takeover GSK on ex-div day.
Some shares seem to do very well trading around ex-div day while others do not. GSK is currently suffering with poor sentiment, but it could change (I wish).
As you mention IMB, that is my biggest holding by some way. Having bought 7 batches since Jan 2018, I will be selling 1 or 2 of those this week. I did buy at £14.83 last week hoping for a small trade profit, but not looking too clver at the mo.
Cheers - CSDI

Hi Paul, Just be patient and keep the faith ! Prices can move against us for so long - you could think the world is ending. I have seen GSK go down to £10 back in 2009 after I bought at £13.50 in May 2007. I sold at £13 in October 2010 at £13 which gave me a small profit after 3 yrs of divis, and drip reinvesting some, and the odd very small top up. Since then I have made profits several times selling at around £16, and buying at £13.50 - £15. I am currently averaging £15.10 cost since July, but expect another top up later this week when I sell part of my IMB holding. with the divi at just over 5% p.a, happy to hold for as long as it takes to get back to £16 or more. Looking at the 5 year chart, we have a low point around 1250p, and several bottoms around £13. As I have said before it has a good trading range of £13-18. I always miss the best selling point but prefer to have a fixed target of around 10% profit and hope to repeat twice a year if get lucky.
Cheers - CSDI