RE: Prospero263 Jun 2025 12:25
So Prospero one or two observations on your last post:
You say 3.0p "when the pipeline is real" , yes, feasible but essentially "real" means when Ntorya is "producing", or very close to it and the second component of that relies upon a successful NT2 work programme too. I have no concerns about that being the case but it is not a done deal. So pipeline and NT2 completion methinks.
Second you suggest 6.5p–8p, if CH-1 succeeds and validates scale. Mmmm, well I personally think 8p is a bit on the optimistic side but that is not my real point. The material point here is that "success" is NOT an absolute. CH1 will prove up the gas potential of Ntorya but the range of that potential is considerable and the sp thereafter will materially reflect where on any spectrum that appraisal falls. Hence I think, that the possible sp range thereafter is also far wider than you indicate. Maybe a 4p - 8p range.
Thirdly, 10p+ = full monetisation and field buildout. If the potential of the field is proven to be at the highest end of expectations by the CH1 drill and the sp does reach 8p, that 8p will be based largely upon future expectation, BUT if those expectations justify 8p per share then surely reaslisation of that future potential is worth much more than an additional 2p on the share price? The considerable future operational and political risk, additional costs, time value, opportunity cost and a whole lot more will dictate a significant discount of current value to account for that risk. That is my principle reason thinking that 8p is a little optimistic for a post CH1 valuation, unless those CH1 results are exceptional.
All in my personal opinion of course.
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