Member Info for CrustyPete

The new license extension is likely to run only until 2020. If C1 isn't drilled until Q2/3 2019 that hardly leave much time to drill any more before the proprosed license extension actually runs out..... But that underlines the point of we are to do any drills after C1 within the current license extension and if we want seismics done in advance of those drills we can hardly leave the permissions for seismics until after the extensions have been approved because the license would be over before we got those permissions in place (they can take 18 - 24 months) and had time to use them.

So as I tried to explain; the "why now?" question for the seismics in my view is because it is "part and parcel" of the License extension and Dev License approval; there is bugger all use having a license if your ability to satisfy your drilling obligations is compromised by not being able to do seismics over the area in advance of drilling. Licences have fixed terms and drilling obligations; not to be able to do seismics over the area before drilling would be a big risk, both commercially and politically. If the demand curve for gas rises steeply in 2018 -2019 and we are required to drill NT4 and 5 in quick succession after C1 we may want to do seismics before drilling or defer the drill until we could... which would be worse? A drill blow out or incurring the wrath of the TPDC for not drilling to meet their demands. Take your pick. Apologies Drewky didn't mean to be so short.

So, Drewky NR thought that seismics needed to be done for the drilling of NT3 for goodness sake and that, at the time, was before they were drilling for Oil in NT3. So why now? why now what? Seismics? No, as I said there is no reason to believe that seismics are happening now! The permissions? may be because without them there wasn;t much point extending or approving a License?! IF not that then what? The farm out? Because they need the money for C1 drill , Nyuni and Kiliwani South seismics and drill and, just as possibly, ex-Tanzania acquisitions..... Bugger all to do, directly, with Oil. But enough of this crap, life's too short.

Dub; you say "I personally expect this Gas and hopefully Petroleum Basin to significantly deliver over and above what the independent consultants have indicated to date. The use of the words (in a high quality cretaceous sandstone reservoirs) give me confidence." Do you not think that the "independent consultants" - the Experts" would not also be aware of this and made their assessments based on it? How and why are you second guessing their assessments? I think they would know what a "high quality cretaceous reservoir" would look like and be likely to yield; don't you?!

I do not think there IS any particular urgency to do the Seismics for Ruvuma. What makes you believe there is? we simply now have the "permissions" needed to do so as and when the timing is right. And that, for me, is once the demand for the gas dictates. We need funds for C1, Nyuni and South Kiliwani seismics and I believe both or all of these will happen before we do seismics on Ruvuma - UNLESS when we drill C1 we actually do find (commercial) Oil because that would change the complexion of things but I would be amazed if we were doing seismics over Ruvuma simply because of the likelihood of there being Oil in the region. To contrast with this the possibility that we do NOT (highly likely) find commercial Oil at C1? Are we raising money now for something that we might never use?? NO! The seismics for Ntorya are there for gas development first and foremost; Oil is no more than a possibility......

You may recall that as a result of the CPR the TPDC requested that IO revised their Commercial Study. Yes this MAY have had something to do with the prospects for Oil but the Commercial study was about the EPS and nothing (as far as anyone has suggested) to do with Oil. To extrapolate anything more from this is just speculation and fantasy. Keep it real for goodness sake.

Moreover until the NT3 drill they won't even know what to expect from those seismics as regards Oil; that drill will tell them more than any seismics. The seismics would be done irrespective of Oil, to suggest anything else is just fanciful.... They have already told us that they will drill NT4, 5 6 and beyond only as GAS demand dictates. It will however give us a far better idea of how much is down there and where to drill for it.... None of us want another KN1.

No Drewky, no. The 8 drill programme has been modified as a consequence of the CPR. Despite the fact that AEX had already drilled the pad for NT3 that has been moved, albeit, not significantly for the new C1 drill. So all of those original "sites" were simply the initial approximations that will now be confirmed with seismics....

Back to even now....

Friday? Are you sure Drewky? I'm surprised that you can believe it without an RNS being issued to that effect.....

Whatever the RNS said I can guarantee to all that is interested that PT did NOT do any consultancy for AEX. It may well have been the expectation at the time of the RNS BUT he did not do anything from that day forward; that I can guarantee you. But if that is not good enough for you then so be it - live on in your world of conspiracy theories and other flights of fancy.....

But he wasn't connected with the company, supposedly or otherwise..... end of story.

That may well be so LT but it would NOT be as a consequence of any consultancy that he did at AEX - because he did NOT do any...... If you are suggesting that his former Canyon O&G colleague was supplying him with inside information I would not like to say - in fact I suspect it would be somewhat reckless to do so. In reality I suspect that it is highly unlikely; because of his previous relationship it would have been far too obvious.

Yes irish I know what the RNS says! BUT he never did any consultancy..... FFS got it now????!!!

That was total misinformation irish, he was never kept on as a consultant he didn't do a day's work after "leaving". I was also told that he was selling up to fund another "project". Personally I do not read anything into his selling up. He was "persona non grata" after the ARA buy-in and probably perceived as disrupting - whereas they recognised JB as "their man".....Whether he was funding another project or not anyone that had their nose put put of joint as he had would have wanted to sever all connections - he simply and correctly, recognised that the only opportunity that he was ever going to get to dump 157 million shares on the market was when there was a strong buyers market in them.....

MAX-power the sp has absolutely no bearing on the price paid to "farm-in". CP's quite valid assertion that if the sp remains where it is or falls even further that the Zubairs could end up buying the whole company at a price below that needed to farm-in..... Though I do not believe that will happen. They will do nothing before the License approvals and by then the sp will be much, much higher (IMO of course). Unless we need a dilution to fund C1 in advance of those approvals - which, again, I do not believe will be the case. Must dash for now GLA.

No amoeteto that was just the received wisdom of many posters on this BB that now seem no longer to be quite so confident.....

I can't fault the logic but I cannot see it happening - brave words eh? Just need some license news and the complexion of things changes immediately. And it appears that many have short memories - just a few weeks ago the reason for the deferred AGM timetable was to enable significant developments including a farm-in. Amazing what a small drop in sp can do eh?

But with no licenses and with no indication of if or when we will get them the 12 fold increase in resources may as well NOT have happened CP..... Personally I am not concerned - minimal volumes and could reverse at any time. AGM in just a few weeks - I am really looking forward to it. I just wish I could afford to take advantage of the fall.

Trader, if it is any consolation I was once down approaching �200k on my Aminex holdings. Today I am still clawing on to a (comparatively small) profit that was once far far at the time of the NT2 drill - as long as we can hang on to our Ruvuma assets beyond C1 drill I am confident that we will get back to those same levels and, perhaps, even higher. In today's terms that would be about 18p.....