Member Info for CrustyPete

I just bring to mind that Investec analysis from the turn of the year that estimated the NAV - and this was before the CPR upgrade - of 3.3p. That 3.3p was the result of Investec applying a 50% discount to the Ruvuma assets because of the total lack of an obvious plan for a "route to market" for those assets.... From memory if you were to remove the discount on the Ruvuma assets it put the total NAV at 6.0p. Which puts a non discounted figure on the Ruvuma assets of circa 5.5p pre "upgrade". Now, what wasn't clear was what proportion of that 5.5p was from the Ntorya Development area and what was not but as much of that area is "exploration" area only very little, if any, would have been attributed much value. From the above it would not be difficult to estimate a post upgrade NAV for all AX assets of between 12 - 16p. All of the above assumes that we have the License extensions and the 25 Year Development License in place. Now whether or not the sp will rise to meet that NAV is another issue altogether and I think the biggest contributory factor in that equation will be any farm-out offer we may receive. That and of course the C1 drill which may well create yet another "bubble" Apache. This time best to be the first out and not the last ;0)

I don't think anyone would argue the toss on that point Apache, indeed that was why I would have not bought back in until the sp had dropped to 4p; which, to my satisfaction, was a realistic NAV valuation post NT2 drill. So yes too much "hot money" in that 7.5p price. That said, with the upgrade in Ntorya resources as estimated with the recent CPR (and assuming the approval of all necessary licenses) that NAV is now considerably increased. The reality is though that without those licenses the NAV is, currently, bugger all..... and hence the reason that until we have them the Zubairs wont be farming into anything. There is NOTHING of ANY value to farm in to.

I absolutely agree with that sentiment Apache, though unfortunately (or thankfully) it is highly unlikely that I would have waited until now before buying back in again; thankfully because it now doesn't feel quite so painful ! I would never have believed back in August or September that we would still be waiting for KN1 remediation or NT3 spud date, so would almost certainly have jumped back in at 4p; though maybe not with "both feet".....?

Well unfortunately I largely agree with you Mr Tank but maybe not in the way that you mean. I have long contested that with ARA holding 29.9% of AEX is was never likely that a Third Party would be tempted to make a bid for Aminex as the Zubairs would always be a blocker. If they now take a direct holding in the Ruvuma PSA this just about seals it. So I no longer see any prospect of a potential buy-out. It would be even more of a non starter if Zubairs end up owning any, or all, of Solo's 25%; there is no way that any third party could end up buying it unless directly through the Zubairs effectively by-passing AEX. This also raises the long mooted spectre of AEX being taken private by their cornerstone investor. Now, personally, I do not think this is in anyone's current interests including the Zubairs - though I do concur with vike1's view that, longer term, the Zubairs will end up owning AEX - but all the time that this is a meaningful risk investors will run shy of investing. Unless you are a STH who is looking to get in and out again in short order and for whom this is not a serious concern. To my mind the BoD need to get another Majedie on board to act as a counterbalance to the Zubair influence. Maybe another placing would provide the opportunity and yet another reason why dilution would be a better alternative to Farm-Out: but would our cornerstone investor allow this to happen? Maybe that is why it appears that this is NOT currently on anyone's agenda. Next on my list of priorities for AGM questions.

As was discussed on the AEX BB the other day, we established that AEX only have to give 14 days notice of an AGM and hence, by extension, 14 days to add a new resolution to the existing AGM list. The 14 days does not include the day of the AGM itself nor the day of notification and it also has to allow another few days for Shareholders to receive the notification. Therefore 21 days would be the very maximum required notice period to add any new Farm-Out resolution, so maybe Monday 21st June June?

Seriously substantial indeedy!! But your inference is perfectly valid - we shouldn't be selling ANY of it until we have tested the possibilities of finding Oil. But I fear we have no choice; the debacle with Kiliwani means that the BoD have no option but to raise funds ahead of C1 drill.Remember this? "Following recent inquiries Aminex advises that it is in discussions with Eclipse Investments LLC" It doesn't state who was "inquiring" of who.... but I think we all know. This provides the Zubairs with an opportunity and is the reason that they want the Development license before C1 drill. The Tanzanian Govt want C1 drill before Development License. I would prefer C1 drill AND Development License before farm-out but that would necessitate another funding round, and that would mean the "D" word. Yes I hear you cry but "we could borrow it" - well some might do so but of course we are a "debt free" Gas producer. :0)

I was only suggesting selling our Ruvuma concession GL not the whole kit and caboodle! ;0) In reality once Zubairs take a percentage of Ruvuma (whatever that maybe) they will, to intents and purposes, control the asset anyway; certainly from the TPDC's and Tanzanian Govt point of view....

I would suggest that the ultimate driver should be for "how much $"... If the figure is big enough I wouldn't mind selling the lot! ;0)

Thank goodness that it isn't Apache that is negotiating our farm-out eh? He would be giving it away for nothing.

If your guesswork regarding price and costs is any guide then I would agree Apache any NAV estimate that you were to invent would be wild speculation.....

I would agree the risk is minimal. The License extensions will be granted soon though the "new" Lindi License will look very different methinks and will probably cost AEX a good sum of money (another reason for farm-out?). I suspect that Heads of Terms for the farm-out have already been agreed in principle but that Zubairs will not be making any formal offer until those extensions and the Development license have been signed sealed and delivered.

Because we need the money irish and cannot complete on anything without it..... unless the BOD are looking to dilute instead and I think they would try and resist that at all costs. Now had we been able to drill C1 dilution would have been a walk in the park.

I wonder if farm -out would have been necessary if KN1 had been sorted out? In my view YES but, most importantly NOT until after C1 drill and the possible upgrade of resources and possibly Oil.... And maybe not to our "related party"... We would always have needed a lot more funding for Nyuni, Kiliwani South and for ex Tanzania acquisitions - all of which are on the medium term horizon. But the issue , for me, is that we would then have been dictating the terms and not receiving them.

Okay Drewky but the assets haven't increased four fold. There is 5.2 TCF in Ruvuma - it is simply that some of it has now increased and is more concrete.... However none of has much value without a confirmed route to market. It is the 25 Year Development license that will increase the fundamentals NOT the quantity of gas in the ground. At the moment NT1, 2 & 3 have 80 BCF and the remaining Wells will need further proving up before they reach the same point

I sympathise with the thought process but we do ourselves no favours by making flippant remarks that are manifestly unjustifiable; it simply provides the detractors with the ammunition they need to accuse us all of one-eyed, self serving overly optimistic manipulation..... Taking ONE statistic and overstating it's significance and importance whilst ignoring the many balancing factors is a good example of exactly that.

If as you suggest Drewky that four fold increase in "fundamentals" were true and on the basis that the sp reached a figure of 7.5p before that increase we should surely be looking for an sp rise of 30p on C1 spud?? But of course that is not going to happen.

How have the fundamentals increased four fold Drewky?! The PMean resources for a small part of the acreage has increased four fold, whilst the cash at bank has reduced by 66%, the income from our only income source has reduced by 90% and we have lost the licences over our principle asset and have a BoD that have managed to deliver nothing tangible in a whole calender year. Moreover we are about to sell off a considerable part of the assets that have increased in value in order to fund our ongoing work programme..... To suggest that the fundamentals have increased four fold in palpable nonsense. You need to look at the whole picture not just the bits that suit you.....

You win Blackgold I cannot defeat your self serving , one eyed logic. The TPDC have already sent the 25 Year Development License to the Minister of Energy for approval. It is now down to the Energy minister to sign it off. He will not be giving any thought to the TPDC back-in when deciding if and when to approve it. He may give thought to C1 outcome for the purposes of the commerciality of the EPS proposal - but then again he might decide that unless the Development License is granted soon, the Zubair Farm-out might be jeopardised and that is far more important. If you believe otherwise, more fool you. You have self evidently already convinced yourself of the logic. Confirmation bias rules. Life is too short for this. Hopefully the outcome will soon be known and you will be proven to have been wrong. Hopefully because otherwise we will be waiting a bloody long time for that Development license approval and another significant dilution in the meantime to boot; because there will be NO farm-out without the Development license approval. I would be happy to wait until after C1 to sell off our prize asset but there are many other long term holders that will not and another dilution will be the death knell for many and the prelude to another pronounced SP decline.... And "as you understand it"? You are wrong, the TPDC would be expected to contribute proportionally towards the historic costs of each project that they back into. That said, to my knowledge they have not yet stumped up for Kiliwani and there is no equivalent credit on the balance sheet as it is not enforceable in law.....

Yes BG any time after the granting of the Development License. So they can choose to elect to exercise the back in rights or NOT whether C1 happens before or after the Development license approval. The two things are totally unconnected and will have absolutely no effect on whether, or when, the License is granted. To suggest otherwise is just pure fantasy.

I do not belive there is much that will be changed on communications for reasons discussed endlessly in the past. My priority would be for the BoD to implement an element of performance related pay as has been alluded to previously. And for that performance to be assessed relative to a list of annual objectives. See below page 17 from the Company's end of year report. _ A performance evaluation of the Board, its Committees and its Directors was not undertaken during the year. _ As noted in the Directors� Remuneration Report, the Board intends to put in place a scheme during 2018 to enable part of the Executive Directors� remuneration to be performance related Well going forward these things must be implemented so I will be pressing to understand what this looks like.