Member Info for CrustyPete

CP - you say "The base value is already set @ $20 million, don't see anyone voting for less."

Well not quite CP - actually $2.5 million and $17.5m of never ending credit - you cannot spend that.

So in my view that would equate to a lot less; in cash terms. Though that maybe offset somewhat now that the license has been extended and again once the Farm-Out completes.

Ha I always find it quite amusing when people postulate the theory that, "because the Board are saying nothing it suggests that something is going on behind the scenes"....! Believe me after over 10 years in Aminex and almost as long in Solo a period of silence typically indicates exactly the opposite - there is nothing going on the the background; at least nothing worth reporting.

Okay BG accepted, though a pity because the JB suggestion was one that would have enabled us to reinstate an income stream with minimal "dilution".....

But yes as I commented yesterday (I think?) the JB's KNS strategy would not provide us with income - just a possible path to income post development and that would be some considerable distance away.

BG, you may remember my saying (many times) that JB was looking to farm out the drilling of KNS for a share of future production / incomes. That would equate to the "production deal" methinks?

Funnily enough our invoices were being paid in full and (largely) on time all the time that we were producing meaningful quantities of gas; as soon as the Gas dried up so did the payment!

Something of a chicken and egg scenario - had we been producing gas we would have been able to use that as leverage to get everything else we needed; license, invoice payment, approvals etc (as Wentworth have largely been able to do).

Without it we have next to nothing....

Unless things have changed the strategy for a "minimal cost" solution always was the use of "foam" to remove the water from the well but, if the previous BoD were to be believed this provided only a 10 - 15% chance of success. Beyond that they were to look to at alternatives including the "compression" originally envisaged. THat too, if you remember was also due to be a relatively low cost solutions which escalated enormously - to £500,000 at the last count - and the closest that they could find the necessary equipment was Angola!

The suggestion was that KN1 may nt be worth spending money on and that they were possibly better off looking at a partner to assist with drilling a new Kiliwani South well.

And then of course there are those "approvals".... don't get me going on those!! :-)

To be honest Kiliwani has been dormant for so long both in "mind and body" that it would be difficult to guess the eventual strategy, safe to say that with no guarantees of payment for the gas at present I cannot seriously see the AEX Board spending any money on it whilst cash is in such short supply.....

Anything that get's us closer to the prize is good news and today's RNS gets us a little closer so hurray for that. That said, if I were not already a shareholder would I be buying today on the back of that news? Not unless I was looking to trade it over the Farm-Out completion.

What else is likely to inflate the sp ahead of a spud date? Rig secured? Maybe, but only slightly. Initiation of 3D seismics? I doubt it. And anything else - Kiliwani remediation and or Nyuni development work all needs money which we haven't got.

I could see some, more patient, investors picking up a few over coming months (in the dips) but other than that the "hoards" and "rainbow chasers" will be waiting for that spud date before ploughing any meaningful capital in here.

Hence as an existing shareholder I will be sitting on what I have got. If I buy any more t will be as above, in the dips, or closer to drilling.

Bye for now.

I couldn't agree more trrime. It is just a pity that it has taken me over a decade to finally admit it to myself..... :0(

AEX and SOLO will be my last foray into Africa in sizable, long term investments anyway.

I would tend to agree trrime. The Helium 1 venture has always garnered a lot of support and enthusiasm but I have always asked why it is that shareholders believe Helium 1 would fare any better with the Tanzanian authorities over Helium than AEX and others have in the Natural Gas space..... ? They could wait the 10 years that AEX have to commercialise the underlying assets. Though I grant you that Helium prices seemingly do not suffer the same vagaries that Natural Gas does.

Hello trrime. one question please. You state "SOLO are looking to exit Tanzania altogether".

Now I do not necessarily disagree with you but do you also include Helium 1 stake in that statement or just the Ruvuma and Kiliwani holdings?

Someone needs to offset the never ending hyperbole greatayp.

If I didn't do it who would?! ;0)

So what's the guessing on the height of today's sp rise? Anyone care to have a go?

I will start; we are there already; maybe another 0.05p on the bid.

Sambo if there is no drill in Tanzania that can do the job it could take literally months for one to become available, then to get it on site and then another 6 - 8 weeks to set it up.

There has been no recent news on the state of play on the drill. Any discussions that took place over a year ago will have been long superceded. You may well be correct Sambo and I hope you are but until we are told precisely what drill we are using and where it is currently situated I will remain unconvinced. I remember a similar conversation with JB over a year ago and he suggested the timelines above. And that was when they had actually identified one.....

The silence is deafening.

Let's see where the day finishes trrime. ;0)

A MM feeding frenzy....!! :0)

Hedging their bets a bit eh?

Morning all. Another small tick in the box at least. :0)

@Sambo. Firstly, and yes maybe nit picking but this is NOT farm-out completion. And secondly as I mentioned at the time of Ambrose's appointment and the transfer of Ola Fjeld back to ARA this delivery had already been recognised; as I said at the time that marked recognition of the Farm-Out being a "done deal". Therefore I do not think this will make the slightest bit of difference to the CH1 spud timelines.

Those timelines are all about the delivery and preparation of a suitable and competent drill to the Ruvuma area in my view.

highlandmatt your summary is superficially correct but ignores a number of "caveats" given by the Board in that statement; that said I will leave others to satisfy themselves of those caveats save to say that the cash flow is not guaranteed. It also overlooks a couple of important additional and relevant statements.

Plus see below

" in addition, development of the Group’s other assets in Tanzania will require the sourcing of additional funding. This includes the Nyuni Area PSA where the Group has applied for the licence to be extended on a revised work programme, as disclosed in Note 24." This is what I referred to a day or two ago regarding the license risking being lost of we can not satisfy those obligations.

and

"The impact of COVID-19 in Tanzania is uncertain and, depending on the measures taken to combat the pandemic locally, could adversely impact the completion of the Farm-Out. There is also significant uncertainty as regards the ability of Aminex to raise funds in the current market conditions due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the depressed oil price. These may result in the Company having to raise funds at whatever terms are available at the time."

Basically therefore a real risk of dilution to raise capital to satisfy AEX's Nyuni obligations or the alternate risk of losing the concession entirely and even the risk that capital cannot be raised at all.

There is also no mention any capital being available for the Kiliwani remediation; indeed they state that " The Kiliwani North Development Licence has no work programme commitments". Suggesting that therefore there is no anticipated funding requirement for this project.

I also draw your attention to the statement at the top of page 40. And whilst I recognise that this is typical "accountancy speak" that largely absolves them of responsibility for future failure - these do indicate that there is no room for complacency here.

Have a look at the accounts matherdj - where is the cash? It was received in September of last year (from memory) but I cannot see much of it remaining as at the year's end.

There is absolutely nothing to suggest that "free carry" provides AEX with any cash flow whatsoever trrime. Indeed all sums are hypothecated towards expenditure directly on Ntorya and nothing else.

And forget the "body language" trrime you only need to listen to his words; AEX are a small company with no cash and need a JV to provide it. That leaves very little to the imagination - it is very clear and no need to interpret "body language" to make sense of it.

Trrime, I would like to know how you arrive at the conclusion that AEX have "some cash in the bank" and how that will take them through to production. There is nothing in the recent accounts to suggest that and any recent receipt of cash from APT has been swallowed up by the CGT bill.

It will be two years before there is any cash flow from Ntorya and no telling if and when there will be any from Kiliwani. So unless AEX are fortunate enough to finally get paid on their outstanding invoices where oh where are they getting the funds to keep the lights on in the intervening period - let alone do anything to promote the remediation of Kilwani.