Member Info for CrustyPete

Is that Clapham Common Apache..... or The Rio Grande? ;0)

Yes we do have "agendas" Frank , we have already established that; you will say anything at all if it puts money in your own pocket and I will say it how I see it irrespective of my own short term benefit.... you may remember my saying, only this morning, that I thought the sp would rise above 1p fairly soon; are you now insinuating that I am trying to get a lower entry price?! Laughable.

So your "contacts" Frank? Are you prepared to divulge who or what these contacts are? Or would that prove how meaningless they are? And don't try telling me that you cannot divulge their identity because you promised "confidentiality" - you already have a track record on that one, so that won't hold water.

"the Government needs to get the Oil & Gas business going now esp after the Tanzanian economy been shattered by Covid..." So where is the evidence for this? Can you even provide any evidence that their economy has been shattered by Covid? see the URL below.

https://www.theafricareport.com/27322/coronavirus-tanzanias-economy-resilient-to-pandemic-impact/

All reports suggest that, so far at least, most Aftrican countries have been largely unaffected by Covid. And it could be said that the Tanzanian Govt has needed the Oil and Gas business (they have NO Oil business by the way) to get going at any time over the last 5 plus years but that has made not the slightest bit of difference to the urgency of their actions..

You may well be right Frank but you need to provide some substantiation for those assertions if they are to have any credibility at all - and so far the only thing that you have come up with is that you are relying on totally unsubstantiated "contacts"... LOL!

So I am sorry Frank, but even though we know that you will try anything for a "ramp" - this effort is more than just a bit pathetic.

So what is any different today than has been the case for the last 2 years....? They have done feck all to "keep all parties happy" during that period. They could have had the Farm-Out at any time they liked during the last 2 years - they only had to grant the license extension.

And in any case the share price is NOT going to rise on the basis that the Tanzanian Govt might want "to keep all parties happy" whether you think so or not.

Indeed it was John just over 2p after first rising to 3.5p. And, at that time, we were in far better a financial position than we find ourselves today.... with two years of overheads down the drain, a "new" $2.2 million CGT bill and another possible $2.2 million tax bill from 2013 -2015 to pay.

I do expect to see rise and stay above 1p but not because of, nor reliant on the Farm-Out.

The farm-out is already assumed to be a done deal and therefore is largely in the price already in my view. And whilst I accept that many will be saying "I'll believe it when I see it" , it will need more than just official recognition of the farm out to get this motoring. So, a small rise maybe but a meteoric spike, not likely.

But then as I said earlier, my powers of prediction are pretty rubbish so we will see.

Ha, Edgar, how I wish I had taken that 7p...... It actually reached 7.8p (offer) at its peak and my limit order price was 7.9 (bid)! Dim and distant history I am afraid to say.

So with my powers of prediction, self evidently, weak it is with hesitation that I say this but - fanfare - I think the next push will get us through the 1p "barrier" and I think it is on its way; maybe this week.

Looking at this mornings trading (very early days I know) the initial indications of the direction of travel are not good.......

I am looking to buy a lot more of these but I will be keeping my powder dry for a short while yet.

Thank your lucky stars Apache, I wasn't even a young man when I first bought these ;0)

Oh and GL, after 10 years of praying and a lot of averaging down I was rather hoping for more than a 2 bagger.

Both avaricious and deluded? Mine is unlikely to be the kingdom of heaven.

"This will go up and down on the slightest breeze until concrete news....."

Or more accurately "this will go down and down on the slightest breeze until concrete news...."

Nothing holding it up without news, I think? The idea that simply because Forum hold shares at 0.5p there would be support or a floor at that level has been shown to be without foundation. Indeed the sp was at 0.15p even after Forum had bought their shares so that didn't provide any support then or now.

So, without news there is likely to be continued drift in my view. That is disappointing, of course, but realistic methinks. I will be keeping my powder dry for the next top up.

It would be lovely to see a few more of those going through today....

Here's hoping!! ;0)

I would be happy and comfortable to pay my share of any bill to see that initiated.

You are correct BG, apologies. I did recognise that mistake shortly after I said it but this is the first time since that I have been back online. So yes KNS has a GSA but only 57BCF and no connection to Songo Songo.

That was part of the rationale for JB's attempt to get a change in the Nyuni License and to combine it with Kiliwani. As that would make the Nyuni License an Appriasal License and a future drill at KNS would then begin the process of "proving up" the resources. And KNS was a development priority for JB whilst still at the helm - but then of course we had some capital left. Now we would not only need a development partner but also someone to help pay to keep the lights on.

So I maintain that Kiliwani is of limited value and Nyuni is virtually worthless by comparison to Ntorya -so what value a JV?

But as you say BG only time will tell. It will be interesting to see.

I will be "out and about" for much of today so I wish you all well and here is to a "blue" day. :0)

And with that I am going to join you in the garden BG.

And as I am sure most will be pleased to hear I do not intend to return to this conversation ;0)

Bye for now one and all.

Oh and just to point out BG, we have a GSA for Kiliwani North - Kiliwani North is not Nyuni. Kiliwani South is Nyuni and that does not have a GSA.

Even less reason for it to have meaningful value?

JB was looking to renegotiate the extension of Nyuni and cut in dow to inshore only (KNS included) but it has never yet been completed....

I agree there is potential but who is going to pay anything meaningful for that potential BG?

Just do the comparison between the sums received for 50% of Ntorya and tell me what you think anyone would pay for the equivalent in Nyuni....?
Many moons ago (2018 I would hazard a guess) Shore Capital did a valuation of AEX which came out at circa 3.5pps. That valuation had Nyuni on the balance shet with a valuation of ZERO (and that was whilst we were still within the license date) . And for very good reason. Nyuni IS guaranteed to cost a huge amount of money to develop and IS NOT guaranteed to produce anything. That is the risk and reward ratio and who is going to pay meanigful money for that....?!

Oh and, not to forget - maybe two years to monetisation and the prospects of Oil in the Jurassic layers of CH1! And 1.3 TCF

All that for $5 m and some credit for a 50% holding and "control" of the asset and development pipeline.....

Nyuni is "offshore" (thankfully, nearshore) has an Exploration License with no guarantee of extension and even those contingent on obligations to complete a (not yet agreed) work programme, only 2D seismics, as yet not connected to Songo Songo GPP and with no offshore wells as yet proven..... And expected reserves (KNS) of only 57 Billion.

no Nyuni value? tuppence ha'penny by comparison.

But BG it is NOT about POTENTIAL value it is about CURRENT value for the terms of a farm-out or JV. Look at the bloody value of Ntorya for crying out loud and that was with an C1 grade assets, an extended Appraisal License, two proven wells and a submitted 25 year Development License application !! $5 m and $35 m of long term credit!!

So how much does that make Nyuni worth by comparison ? 1% ? 10%? of the same value?

BG Nyuni is an exploration asset and therefore of next to minimal value; moreover it would be many years away from production and require a lot of money to get those assets anywhere near production.

Kiliwani North assets were (even when in production) estimated to be worth circa $20 million during its whole production lifetime.... hence the farm-in attraction of Kiliwani North to potential JV partners is very limited in my view.

So that leaves Kiliwani South as the only realistic, attractive asset and you already have my comments on those. I could see a JV on that but the costs of that are quite high so we would probably end up giving up quite a lot of our 64% methinks.

Though that still represents "minimal dilution" in my book.

The access to Songo Songo is of limited by the value and income of the assets that you can put through it and Kiliwani South is the only asset with viable, significant, medium term production prospects and therefore the only one with any material value outside of Ntorya.

Oh and CP, please ignore my statements regarding the 2014 - 2016 CGT issue. I was confusing two things - it seems that there may be the possibility that AEX owes another (by coincidence) $2.2 million for a potential tax claim relating to 2013 - 2015. Which if called upon to pay it this current financial year would result in them having to find additional funding to cover it.

Apparently the CGT related to an event (s) between 2014 - 2016. Besides which the CGT rules in Tanzania are somewhat "creative" I think you will agree and so cannot be taken as any sort of proxy in my view.

NO but the Fram-Out does provide some element of "certainty" that did not exist at the time of the AEX Farm-Out and may therefore make a potential investor comfortable (APT aside).

TS