Member Info for CrustyPete

LSE seems to be missing some trades - there is a 1.5m sale at 0.903p at 9:34 that is not appearing...

Now that IS a meanigful trade GL ;0)

And NO not mine :-)

No edgar not at all, that rise was simply a reversal of yesterday's 5% loss that was only triggered by LSE's treatment of UT trades.... the last trade of the day as it happens

Yes all of 1 trade and what a huge one....!! ;0)

"followed by an asset buy out post exploration and appraisal risks and costs." And at a bargain basement price.... All delivered whilst ensuring that AEX have never been in a position of sufficient strength (cash and balance sheet) to support an alternative strategy.

So yes, why change a winning formula?

That 12:32 trade surely explains a lot.

The bigger question is how much more of that to come?

And before anyone pipes up - NO that was not a BUY.....

Surely nobody would be that bloody stupid?! What and have to deal with the Tanzanian authorities. After the Congo surely once bitten twice shy? ;0)

Yes indeed CP that would be something of a game changer methinks...

But CP that is likely to be two years away an maybe more; what will AEX have to concede in order to pay the bills until then....?

Well the Solo Agenda is not quite as limited as AEX's. Whilst it eventually failed (COVOD-19 casualty?) they did at least have a meaningful attempt at diversification outside of Tanzania and still maintain that it is a primary focus for the company. They also have the prospect of uplift with an eventual Helium 1 IPO and (my opinion only) are probably not looking to run all the way through to monetisation of Ntorya before capitalising on their 25% Ntorya investment.

So they are not quite so dependent on Farm-Out, not so cash strapped and as a smaller AIM listed share the sp can be disproportionately affected by relatively small trading volumes and value. (though AEX is certainly not immune from this either).

Just my thoughts NM.

It is a shame that the BID did not hold above 1.0p but at least the Offer did. Here's to another Blue Day tomorrow.

Good night all.

Oh and one more to add. The AEX Board have already told us that, because they have failed to remediate KN1 and have depleted all of our cash reserves, in order that to keep the lights on we need to partner with someone that can provide us with income.

And that means a dilution - the only questions are the extent and the timing of that dilution.

Ironically I still believe that we will see a good sp rise in the medium term but, it goes without saying, nothing goes up in a straight line and that rise will not now be what it might once have been.

Well here are a few possible reasons John: we have several million pounds less on the balance sheet than at that time, we have had a £2.2m CGT bill to pay, another possible $2.2 m of tax to pay another 2 years of delay in the remediation of KN1 (we still haven't got a work programme approved for KN1 two years on), next to no cash and no income and have failed to receive the $7.6 million in unpaid invoices that was expected fairly imminently two years ago.

How's that for starters?

Bugger.... need some buyers this afternoon.

A few sellers coming out of the woodwork it would appear. Disappointing but inevitable I am afraid. Mid price slipping. Let's hope it holds.

Agreed Matherdj and that is what I was driving at when I asked BG what his expectations were after 1.50p on Farm Out. Hitting 1.50 on Farm-Out is of little value if it then erodes over subsequent days and weeks. We could easily be back at where we are now if that isn't backed up by additional more significant, operational measures...

Happy days :0)

So as I hoped and suggested we did manage it get through the 1.0p barrier. This time I actually think we will maintain this level and after some consolidation start to build from here (slowly) until Farm-Out news.

Wouldn't it be great if we had Farm-Out confirmation that also coincided with a Spud Date.... that might well get things rolling if that date was not somewhere in the dim and distant future.

Serious or not BG I am still interested in your view of the sp movement both short and longer term; Farm-Out news to the Spud Date to Drill completion etc...

So BG if the sp does hit 1.50p after the FO announcement how long do you think it will stay there? How long until the spud date is announced? And what price will it sink to before we reach the Spud date?

I would tend to agree with you on that point BG BUT still contest that a far more relevant issue is the fact that the contract was negotiated over 18 months ago. It will have a most certainly have a "sell by date" (likely to be 12 months) and the very fall off in O&G activity that has occured in the last 3 / 4 months is exactly the reason for that "sell by date" being there. From the contractors viewpoint they are not going to keep a rig idle for 18 months just to keep it free for AEX and if O&G activity had increased during that period they would now want to be charging more for it. Hence a fixed term would have suited both parties.

We are in a far better position (or at least APT are in a far better position) to achieve a lower price in the current environment than was the case in Mid 2018 when this was being negotiated and a "sell by date" gives both parties flexibility.

Anyway no big issue and of course we may well end up using the same contractor but I think it highly unlikely that the 2018 arrangement still holds.

Anyway one and all I will be signing off now. Have a wonderful weekend :0)

You can suppose that if you choose BG, I on the other hand would make no such assumptions; it is difficult to believe that an agreement entered into in 2018 would still be valid, nor indeed it is likely that the same terms would still apply..... With the likely surfeit of rigs currently available and of contractors to operate them I hope the BOD will be looking to renegotiate any existing arrangements to optimise costs. Furthermore that contract was negotiated by AEX when they were the Ntorya operator; APT may well want to renegotiate their own deal now that so much time has elapsed.

Cheap CP and, no doubt, rusty!! ;0)