Member Info for CrustyPete

Well, it was a timely investment Breakingeven, well done and good luck with it. 😉

Yes, one hell of a jump in volumes.

Yes Rich, here's hoping....

It's not showing at all on either of my two "platforms"...

Quite right mokey. Infantile, vacuous drivel.

Buys and Sells are pretty much in alignment.

Breakingeven, was that this morning? Current total volumes sitting at 68,088?!

Wryape if it is the CH1 rig that you are referring to I think you will have a good while to wait - CH1 won't come until after the pipeline completion, NT2 re-entry and, quite possibly after M&P have drilled both of the drilling obligations for H1 2025.

So you may be quite right about 1.20p, it could be even lower than the 1.10p being paid currently. That depends on how long we will be sitting in wait for the Pipeline initiation and NT2 methinks.

TRP swings both ways too PI, firstly all the way up and then almost immediately all the way down again...😋

So the answer is yes then EE. You are agreeing Scancell is a takeover play and nothing else? TD's report suggesting Trial results being a catalyst to a marked sp rise are without foundation?

Oh well what's 5 or 6 months between friends?! Or shareholders more poignantly. Seriously though, after missing that target by such a margin what value or confidence can anyone attach to putative future time frames?

"it's over 3 months since the last RNS and that was the half year report!!"

But rest assured there will be loads of price sensitive stuff going on in the background..... 😆

That Henry, I suppose is my point. The trial results that the TD report speaks to are, in themselves, of no value without meaningful monetisation but how good and to what point of development do those results need to be before they will attract that third party investment. We now have two similar agreements with Genmab but what have they done for the sp to date? And no-one knows what sort of results Genmab are looking for before the small up front payments transform into meaningful revenue for Scancell.

Blubay I follow the maths but exploration wells are typically drilled with the specific purpose of collecting geological data and not necessarily intended or expected to transition straight to "production". Hence to assume that these will all be producing wells in the near future is somewhat premature and also a little optimistic methinks? Development wells may be needed subsequently to bring the helium into production.

However, I hope your assumptions and expectations prove correct. I am simply allowing for an element of "slippage".

Thanks Edgein. Again I would not choose to argue with any of that but fear that the timelines are indeterminate and, as past performance suggests, likely to drift. I would certainly like to see the South African Farm-Out concluded sooner rather than later; strange that with the last RNS the BoD chose not to offer any meaningful update on progress there.

To your earlier question Blubay - are we sure that all revenue from the Dev wells is to be re-invested? - Well not officially no BUT with an anticipated annual income from the initial Dev Wells of circa $2m pa and plans to drill a total of 30 wells there will be very little "excess" for quite a few years (even with any additional CO2 revenue) . Indeed, dependent on the rate of drilling of the exploration well programme He1 may well be required to find more cash to fund their 50%....? Exploration wells will be more expensive to drill than the development wells @ $450k too in my view (and as the BoD themselves have stated).

I would broadly agree with your conclusions below Edgein but also fear that with no planned drilling in 2025, why would people buy in now? I bought back in at 0.040 last week after top-slicing on the RNS but am now wondering what investors can look forward to as likely sp catalysts in the short to medium term? Finalisation of the Farm-Out and payment of the funds is the only obvious event that I can see and will that be material?. Hence that I fear the sp will drift further - AIM investors aren't known for their patience.

I had been looking to buy a lot more but, subsequently, have decided to "sit on my hands" for the time being....

The first line of the TD report reads "Scancell achieved more in 2024 than in any previous year" and yet the sp on 2nd Jan was 11.0p and now sits at 9.50p. Yes we have experienced dilution over that period so the market cap is broadly similar but that is hardly reflective of a year in which Scancell achieved more than in any previous year. So is "achievement" (positive trial results) the measure? It seems not. If investors cannot trust the market to reward achievement with an appropriate valuation what will drive investors towards Scancell? It is the investment or lack of it taht will move the share price not trial results. TD can give Scancell a rNPV valuation of £330m but without investment the mc will never reflect that valuation.

To be honest my thoughts above are more than a little overstated but I do fear that there will never be any significant investment (particularly Institutional Investment) in Scancell without a real sniff of there being a predator in the wings.

Chelsea, my point was, essentially, that we have seen umpteen very positive trial results in recent months and years and yet they have done little for the sp other than occasionally a brief and muted sp spike. So what gives us to believe that more of the same will be any different? The sustained rise to 19p was, at least seemingly, brought about by a concentrated buying spree on behalf of an unknown purchaser. That is the only thing that has had any sustained impact on the sp and that seemed unrelated to any trial results of that period.

Oh and yes, I would be the first to state that the last RNS was not likely to do so as it only related to a small section of the trial and covered a statistically insignificant sample size and so was never likely to make a difference but can we be confident that when we get the full picture that will provide a meaningful sp catalyst? We have yet to see previous results have any material effect.

So EE are we totally reliant on such a deal to give shareholders a return on their investment? What else can the BoD point to to "move the dial"? What can we expect the 2025 trial results to do to the sp? Or do we just sit and wait for the next dilution?

Except that it is already committed to re-investment in Galactica, so He1 will not be able to use it to cover overheads or Rukwa expenditure; not until the subsequent exploration wells "come-in".