Member Info for CrustyPete

Well if Roland's intention was to scare the weak and nervous holders into selling he has done a very good job - all one way traffic since then! 😆

It is likely to be connected to the need for a horizontal drill capability.

"Nothing is guaranteed in this game...."

Absolutely true Zoffy but it appears you seemingly, constantly and completely fail to understand or acknowledge is that not all of us are here for "guarantees" for feck sake 🙄 - if it were a guarantee it would already be xyz pence and any upside would already be baked in.

It is about risk versus reward Zoffy - when will the penny drop? You do not have to teach any of us about the bloody risks; we are holders here in the full knowledge that they exist.

But thanks anyway.

That was my interpretation gordon, yes....

We can but hope DP.....

Looking at the trades since the tweet it seems that it didn't go down too well with some....

Let's hope the upside on the drilling doesn't get swallowed up by the downside on the CCS projects..... the Cambay project may have some medium term benefits but with no guarantees; CCS is a new concept in India and we know that the wheels grind slowly over there. Can something realistically be expected in 2026? Very optimistic in my view. But as for Medway?! Well this is just burning shareholder value for no obvious nor guaranteed benefit - at the very worst this ought to be put on ice until SYN has the income to cover forecast costs otherwise the destruction of shareholder value will continue.

Even then this has become a minimum 12 hold, in my view. Disappointing. Farm-out of Medway might provide some shorter term relief but that seems like grasping at straws.

Yep, quite right Ssccss, as soon as the workovers are complete. Only with those new drills have they any chance of making the 4 - 6 scuffs a day target before the year end.

That is exactly why it is NOT in an RNS DP- totally unofficial and allows for plausible deniability! 😉

Nothing much new there and really glosses over the salient issue with the CCS projects - where does the feckin' cash come from to cover the development costs - Medway being the bigger issue; we need a new Farm-Out partner and pdq too 🤬

Indeed Ruck but as EE states that trade would not have been executed today in isolation, it would have been executed over a day or two and completed this morning with the 9.55p being the average trade price over that period.

Good to see it out of the way though. Maybe we can start to claw back some lost ground now. Here's hoping at least.

And unlike the Kiliwani GSA the Ruvuma GSA allows for ARA to be paid in shillings - which is certainly not something that either ARA nor AEX would have chosen as the issue of converting that to US$ then lies with ARA.... 🤬

Also bullfrog the Tanzanian Authorities have always indicated that cheap "onshore" gas would be used domestically to turbo charge the Tanzanian economy and underpin growth and wealth creation of Tanzanian citizens. It was always anticipated that the more expensive offshore gas that would be exported as it would be the premium paid for exported gas would allow the developers a good margin even after the development and infrastructure costs have been covered.

Though I would not be at all surprised to find some of the onshore gas finding its way into the export pipelines.

Oh sorry, I should have mentioned - all in my opinion of course 😉

Pretty much, yes, though have little to no opinion nor idea about where it will settle. I also think that each and every subsequent drill will cause something of a spike, though from a slightly higher base and with ever decreasing upside. Each drill will become less and less significant than the previous as income grows. CH1 is likely to more than double the anticipated NT2 production levels (hence income) and could be significantly more than that (fingers crossed); NT1 is likely to add an other 25+% on top of that but with plenty of upside. Each subsequent drill will add less and less as a %age of production and therefore become less and less impactful.

But there will always be the rainbow chasers that think that, one day, one of those drills will find Oil!! Yes they might but not in commercial quantities - not anytime soon at least.

I would tend to agree Pepsi but do bear in mind whatever happens to the Govt approval they will still hold shares in TRP.

Well Rojo that is your opinion and, of course, you are entitled to it. I disagree.... whatever happens with the pipeline and NT2 will pale by comparison to impact of the CH1 drill and NT1 workover and the rainbow chasers will still be out - though, perhaps, in reduced numbers.

Do recall Rojo that AEX were a "producer" back in 2016 and into 2017 with $1m of income per month from Kiliwani (far more than NT2 will be producing) , yet the sp still shot up 350+% on the back of the NT2 drill. Unfortunately that sp dived after the NT2 drill and once the "back 2 back" expectations faded and Kiliwani income dried up.

I am still expecting similar to be the case for CH1 and NT1 re-working (headroom for significant upgrade in production) and from a similar base - though whether that will be 350% this time I would somewhat doubt. Will we be at 2.00p ahead of that drill? Maybe, if the pipeline is in situ and NT2 is "producing" - though of course NT2 will not be producing $1m per months as Kiliwani was, but after CH1 and NT1 it is more than realistic.

But the cash you use to purchase these shares doesn't go to the company! It goes to the seller - you need to buy in on a cap raise for that!

The "fury pond"? Isn't that a bit dangerous with all that rage?! You might get a fat lip...

Rojo, you say "The SP would at that stage (if we ever get there) be determined by gas sales price less all costs, and who knows what that calculation will reveal."

No it won't! When ever has the sp of AEX remotely reflected the NPV, income (yes, we once had one) or future income / profit....? Never. It is a "hot money" stock - or at least it always was. It remains to be seen if or how much that remains to be the case when we eventually get to that CH1 drill.

Well, it was a timely investment Breakingeven, well done and good luck with it. 😉